NCAA Bracketology: Penn State is a Unicorn

Every week in these bracket rundowns, there’s a sentence buried deep in the minutiae that declares “this exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date.”

While every team is different, nearly every team on paper looks like somebody else from the past that a previous committee has evaluated. And while the committee membership changes and different elements of a team’s resume are prioritized in different years, there’s at least a way to point out how such teams have been treated in the past.

But “nearly every team” isn’t every single team, and occasionally a unicorn pops up that warrants an extended discussion on just how unusual it is.

And so it is with the 2026 Penn State Nittany Lions.

With its loss to Michigan on Saturday, Penn State now owns three losses outside the top 20. The Wolverines sit at No. 30, while Navy (No. 24) and Villanova (No. 44) picked off the Nittany Lions in February. But Penn State also has three top-10 victories: Princeton, Maryland and Cornell.

The NCAA’s RPI archive is complete for men’s lacrosse from 2009-20 (and also includes the relevant document for 2007, which can be found with the right finagling), and its latest statistics site includes RPI data since 2021. It’s possible to go down a data rabbit hole, which proved an enticing possibility while thinking about Penn State’s odd profile.

It turns out the Nittany Lions are on track to be the 19th team to finish in the top 20 of the RPI and lose three games to teams outside the top 20. (One of them, 2018 Penn, finished with a losing record and was ineligible to be selected.) A bunch of those are teams from one-bid leagues with strength of schedule rankings in the 30s and 40s.

But add the criteria of earning even one top-10 victory and things get very interesting.

Two of these teams jump off the page. Notre Dame slipped into the field in 2010 and charged all the way to Memorial Day as an unseeded team, losing in overtime to Duke in the national title game.

It was not a selection without controversy; the Irish made it in over a Georgetown team with a No. 9 RPI and a schedule strength of 12th that owned a head-to-head victory. But Notre Dame had three top-15 wins and Georgetown had none, and that was that.

The other noteworthy team is 2022 Duke, which was famously left out and is the highest RPI team to be excluded since at least 2009. The Blue Devils’ significant losses helped doom them (and, as part of a chain reaction, Notre Dame) and left the ACC with a single team in the tournament.

(Also worth mentioning: Harvard was the team just outside the at-large field in 2016, and Ohio State was part of a three-team mix excluded in favor of Villanova for the last spot in 2018.)

In their respective years, both 2010 Notre Dame and especially 2022 Duke were Selection Sunday lightning rods. And it sure seems possible 2026 Penn State joins them.

What gets valued more for the Nittany Lions, their superb victories or their puzzling losses? If, hypothetically, Army gets punished for one bad loss, shouldn’t Penn State get dinged for three setbacks that stand out?

Do the current numbers hold up? Princeton will almost certainly remain a high-value victory in a few weeks, but will Maryland and Cornell still be top-10 teams then? And what about the reverse? Navy and Michigan could plausibly get into the top 20 still. (Villanova, even with four consecutive victories to close the year, is a longshot to do so.)

And what about the next three weeks? Penn State still has Rutgers and the Big Ten tournament to come. It isn’t done polishing its resume.

Yet as things stand now, the Nittany Lions own one of the oddest profiles the sport has seen and could be the most talked-about team come Selection Sunday. Just what will be said then remains to be seen.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 13.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Princeton has scored 74 goals in the four games since its loss to Cornell. And with Harvard stumbling over the weekend against Yale, the Tigers once again have a share of the Ivy tournament. Matt Madalon’s bunch visits Harvard on Saturday. … Richmond obviously didn’t wallow in its first loss for long, if at all, pounding St. Bonaventure 23-7 on Saturday. The strength of schedule probably will stop the Spiders from getting a top-two seed, but they’re on track for a home game if they win out. …

Three weeks ago, Maryland’s season was on the rocks. Now, the Terrapins head to Homewood Field with a shot at an outright Big Ten regular season title. A win over Johns Hopkins doesn’t make Maryland a postseason lock, but it gets the Terps close. … Georgetown has won its first three Big East games by an average of 9.7 goals and is the clear favorite to win an eighth consecutive conference tournament next month. …

Towson took its RPI hit for playing Hampton, dropping five spots after a 21-5 victory over the winless Pirates. The Tigers lock up the CAA regular season title with merely a split against Fairfield and Hofstra the next two weeks. … Loyola can also clinch conference tournament hosting rights on Saturday when it welcomes Army to Baltimore. …

Utah rallied past Jacksonville to take sole possession of first place in the Atlantic Sun on Saturday, but the Utes will have to head right back to Florida at month’s end for the league tournament regardless of how the next two Saturdays go. … Robert Morris sits alone atop the NEC after Long Island’s loss to VMI on Sunday. The Colonials can secure the top seed and the chance to host the conference tournament with a victory over the Sharks on Saturday. …

The America East tournament will be played at UAlbany after the Great Danes clinched the outright regular season title Saturday. … With its victory over Sacred Heart, Siena can lock up the top seed in the Metro Atlantic with a split of its last two conference games (Saturday at Mount St. Mary’s, April 22 at home against Merrimack).

AT LARGE  (14 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame earning a top-two seed would make it easier for the committee to maintain competitive integrity with the bracket. The Atlantic Sun champ is (a) on track for a play-in game, especially if Georgetown and Towson win their respective leagues; and (b) going to get funneled into a game that requires a flight, and few viable teams are within 400 miles of South Bend. Put them together, and it saves a flight for another first-round game. …

North Carolina doesn’t slip far after losing to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels remain in fine shape for a first-round home game, and with a solid finish, a top-four seed. … Syracuse finishes with Colgate, Notre Dame and the ACC tournament, and it’s hard to see how the Orange won’t be playing a first-round home game at the Dome come May 10. …

Harvard faces Princeton and Cornell the next two Saturdays. The Crimson could be looking at a top-four seed with a sweep, barely inside the field with two losses or right about where it is now with a split heading into the Ivy tournament. … Johns Hopkins’ metrics and its victory at Virginia are enough — for the moment — to keep it ahead of the Cavaliers. …

Virginia will have to win at least one more game to finish with a winning record, assuming it doesn’t get shut out of the ACC tournament in the case of a five-way tie at 2-2. The Cavaliers get North Carolina and Drexel at home the next two weeks. … Cornell helped itself with Saturday’s defeat of Duke on Long Island and also damaged another at-large contender. Next up for the Big Red is a trip to Dartmouth, where they have not lost since 1997. …

Army beat Navy in the regular season for the fourth consecutive season to remain firmly in the Patriot League title race. The Black Knights close the regular season against Loyola and Colgate, and an automatic bid remains their best route to the tournament thanks to the March loss to Lafayette. … Not mentioned above is the one path where Penn State would not be an interesting case for the committee. If the Nittany Lions lose to Rutgers on Friday and in the Big Ten quarterfinals the following week, they’d finish 6-7 and be ineligible for the postseason. …

Yale finishes the regular season against Hofstra (Tuesday), UAlbany (Saturday) and Brown (April 25). The Bulldogs are done adding top-20 victories until at least the Ivy League tournament. … Ohio State’s victory over Johns Hopkins is immensely helpful. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes can ill-afford a loss to Michigan on Friday. …

It’s go-time-or-else for Duke, which gets Notre Dame in its home finale on Saturday. The Blue Devils need either a sweep of the Irish and North Carolina or a victory over one of them plus some help just to make the ACC tournament. Duke would be shut out of the ACC tournament even prior to its regular-season finale with a loss to Notre Dame and a North Carolina victory at Virginia. …

Boston University avoided tumbling under .500 with its overtime defeat of Bucknell, but the Terriers are not a realistic at-large candidate. … Injuries have hit Rutgers at exactly the wrong time, and the Scarlet Knights probably need a victory over Penn State on Friday and a trip to the Big Ten final to have any shot at an at-large.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️ (possibly)
(8) Virginia vs. BIG TEN/Maryland

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. Penn State
(4) Syracuse vs. CAA/Towson

Newark, Del.

(3) North Carolina vs. PATRIOT/Loyola
(6) Harvard vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown ✈️

Newark, Del.

(7) Johns Hopkins vs. Cornell
(2) IVY/Princeton vs. AMERICA EAST/UAlbany-METRO ATLANTIC/Siena winner

Last three included: Virginia, Cornell, Penn State
First three on the outside: Yale, Ohio State, Army

Moving in: None
Moving out: None

Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)

FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES

*Per Google Maps

127: Maryland to Virginia
191: UAlbany to Princeton
192: Siena to Princeton
305: Cornell to Johns Hopkins
319: Penn State to Richmond
324: Towson to Syracuse
325: Loyola to North Carolina
365: Robert Morris to Notre Dame
440: Georgetown to Harvard
1,474: Utah to Notre Dame