NCAA Bracketology: Virginia's Surge Easy as 1-2-3

Virginia’s surge into NCAA tournament contention was as easy as 1-2-3.

Well, perhaps not easy. The 1-2-3 part? That holds up.

Thanks to a three-game winning streak highlighted by Saturday’s 11-9 defeat of Notre Dame, the Cavaliers (6-4) are firmly in the postseason picture and their eight-game skid against ACC opponents is kaput.

Consider for a moment Virginia’s rise in the RPI since mid-March:

The best thing going for Virginia all along was opportunities. Losses to Richmond, Johns Hopkins, Towson and Maryland meant the Cavaliers probably wouldn’t have much to show for their non-conference schedule. (A victory over High Point may yet wind up as a top-20 victory.)

Yet there was always the four-game run through the ACC regular season, a stretch likely to lift Virginia’s metrics at least a bit, regardless of outcome. Last year, the numbers rose even as Lars Tiffany’s team plummeted to a 6-8 finish. Saturday’s victory over previously undefeated Notre Dame instantly transformed the Cavaliers into a viable NCAA possibility.

Duke, Syracuse and North Carolina are still to come, followed by a home game against Drexel and (possibly) the ACC tournament. There are plenty of valuable resume-improving chances nestled in that remaining schedule, and the Cavaliers’ rise isn’t necessarily complete.

Still, they are firmly in the conversation, which wasn’t the case just a couple weeks ago.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 30.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Richmond could have scored 50 goals against Hobart (2-7 with an RPI of 53) and it still would have taken a metrics hit. The same is not true of the Spiders’ non-conference finale Saturday in Chicago against Notre Dame. That’s a real opportunity to bolster Richmond’s profile. … Harvard took its first loss Sunday, but stumbling against North Carolina didn’t damage the Crimson’s overall profile. …

Thought experiment: Is “Penn State lost at home in early February to Villanova” this year’s “Ohio State lost its opener at home to Utah?” The Buckeyes went on to win the Big Ten and earn a No. 4 seed last year; the Nittany Lions could follow a similar track to Selection Sunday this spring. … Georgetown enters the fray after demolishing Denver 17-5 to open Big East play. But the Hoyas’ strength of schedule number will not get better; their four remaining league opponents own an average RPI of 49.5. …

The Patriot League will almost certainly be a one-bid league, which should make Boston University’s trip to Loyola on Saturday significant since the winner will take the outright lead and have an inside track to playing host to the league tournament. Or maybe not; the No. 1 seed hasn’t won a Patriot tournament final since 2018. … Towson once again has control of the CAA after winning its 20th consecutive regular season conference game. Thanks to tiebreakers, the Tigers would effectively be two games up with three to play if they handle Monmouth on Saturday. …

Sacred Heart leads Division I in road victories with six. Next up with four: Massachusetts, Penn, Syracuse and Villanova. … Robert Morris has won seven in a row, the third-longest active streak in Division I behind Sacred Heart (10) and Richmond (9). …

Jacksonville maintains a slight RPI advantage over Utah, which sits at 32nd. Both teams won their conference openers over the weekend. … UAlbany has won its first three America East games by an average of 5.3 goals. The Great Danes get Binghamton (2-7) at home on Saturday.

AT LARGE  (15 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

North Carolina vaults to the top spot in the RPI after clobbering Harvard on Sunday. The Tar Heels would solidify that standing if they can handle Syracuse this weekend in their ACC opener. … Princeton has a better RPI (barely) than Syracuse, has played a stronger schedule than North Carolina and has defeated both of them. Based on the committee’s history, the Tigers would be the No. 1 seed if the tournament began today. …

Has Syracuse already done enough to make the tournament? Quite possibly. Not that the Orange is likely to lose out. … Johns Hopkins has the metrics to maintain a seeded slot, and it did benefit from Virginia’s upset of Notre Dame. But the Blue Jays could use a prominent victory, and Saturday’s visit from Penn State offers the opportunity. …

Notre Dame slides a little after its loss to Virginia, but not out of seeded territory — at least for now. … Duke should feel decent about its ability to match up with top-tier teams after dropping a 16-15 decision at Syracuse. But that doesn’t solve the absence of a top-tier victory. …

There’s no nice way to put it: Army’s loss to Lafayette is the most distinguishing feature of its profile, and that isn’t a good thing. … Virginia still has plenty of chances to solidify its postseason standing in front of it, but the one team the Cavaliers wouldn’t mind getting some help from is Maryland. If the Terrapins can nose into the top 20, Virginia won’t have to worry about their triple-overtime setback in College Park being a significant loss. …

Rutgers snatched away a victory from Johns Hopkins on Sunday and elevated its own profile in the process. The Scarlet Knights visit Michigan this week, then close the Big Ten schedule at Maryland and at home against Penn State. … Cornell’s victory at Princeton is what is keeping the Big Red in the field after Saturday’s one-goal loss to Yale. …

Ohio State’s season will pivot on the next two weeks as it travels to Maryland and plays host to Johns Hopkins. Lose both, and the Buckeyes will have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament. ... After erasing an eight-goal deficit at Dartmouth, Penn returns home to face Cornell in a sneaky-important game for postseason purposes on Saturday. …

If Saint Joseph’s is going to have any shot at an at-large — and that’s definitely an if — it needs an unblemished April (at UMass, at Richmond, Delaware, Atlantic 10 semifinals). Even that might not be enough after Saturday’s loss to High Point. … Yale and Maryland both got back to .500 on Saturday, and both are still blessed with opportunities. Yale has Harvard at home on April 11, plus (possibly) the Ivy League tournament, while the Terps get Ohio State and Rutgers at home and Johns Hopkins at Homewood in addition to the Big Ten tournament.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Princeton vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/UAlbany winner
(8) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. Virginia

Newark, Del.

(5) IVY/Harvard vs. PATRIOT/Boston University
(4) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. CAA/Towson
(6) Notre Dame vs. Cornell

Newark, Del.

(7) Johns Hopkins vs. Duke
(2) North Carolina vs. NEC/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville winner

Last three included: Virginia, Duke, Cornell
First three on the outside: Ohio State, Rutgers, Army

Moving in: Georgetown, Virginia
Moving out: Denver, Ohio State

Conference call: Atlantic Coast (5), Ivy (3), Big Ten (2)