NCAA Bracketology: Bid Thief Threat Levels

Thirteen games are all that remain between now and tomorrow night’s Selection Show. Some teams will see their seasons end, some will not know if they will continue, and others have been sitting idly for a week waiting for results to pour in.

Saturday’s championship games

American: (1) South Florida vs. (2) James Madison
What’s on the line: A rematch of last year’s title game, South Florida looks to earn its first bid to the NCAA tournament. Bubble teams are rooting for USF.
Bid thief threat level: High

Atlantic Sun: (1) Delaware at (2) Jacksonville
What’s on the line: The two top teams in the ASUN meet in what is a one-bid league. A Delaware victory would give the committee flexibility for placement, while a Jacksonville victory is a team that will likely fly.
Bid thief threat level: None

Big 12: (1) Florida vs. (2) Colorado
What’s on the line: Both teams are in the field with outside shots of earning a national seed, so winning is imperative. If Florida wins and gets a seed, potential tournament teams like Mercer, Jacksonville or USF now have places to drive. Colorado could host Denver and two other schools that fly in.
Bid thief threat level: None

Big East: (1) Denver vs. (2) Georgetown
What’s on the line: Possibly both teams’ seasons. Denver doesn’t have a signature win but has a high RPI (15th). Georgetown’s window to get an at-large bid has closed, so the AQ is the only path.
Bid thief threat level: Medium-to-high

CAA: (3) Towson at (1) Stony Brook
What’s on the line: Stony Brook staying in line for a seed. If the Seawolves hold serve, they should be among the top eight. A loss would drop them out of hosting and bump a bubble team out of the picture.
Bid thief threat level: Low

MAC: (1) UMass vs. (2) Akron
What’s on the line: UMass’ perfect run through the MAC. The Minutewomen are in the RPI top 30 without a significant victory, therefore a loss would leave them out of the field.
Bid thief threat level: None

NEC: (2) Stonehill at (1) Le Moyne
What’s on the line: A trophy. Stonehill has earned an automatic bid because host Le Moyne is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

Patriot: (2) Army at (1) Navy
What’s on the line: Navy preserving its spot amongst the seeded ranks. The Mids could remain among the top five or six with a victory.  
Bid thief threat level: None

Sunday’s championship games

America East: (2) UAlbany at (1) Vermont
What’s on the line: The automatic bid. Vermont will try to backup its regular season thumping of UAlbany and earn its second trip to the tournament. UAlbany is in its 15th straight America East championship game looking to return to the NCAA tournament for the third time in four years.
Bid thief threat level: None

Atlantic 10: (2) VCU vs. (4) Davidson
What’s on the line: A first-time Atlantic 10 champion and the first school not named UMass, Richmond or Saint Joseph’s to win the title since 2008 (Temple). Davidson’s upset of Richmond bumps the Spiders into the at-large category. There’s a small chance that Richmond gets in, but for now, it’s one of the first four teams out.
Bid thief threat level: Low

Big South: (2) High Point at (1) Mercer
What’s on the line: Seeing if someone can stop Mercer’s reign atop the Big South. A win has Mercer on the road most likely to Chapel Hill,.High Point could go up to one of the Maryland sites if need be.
Bid thief threat level: None

Ivy League: (2) Princeton at (1) Yale
What’s on the line: For Princeton, a stress-free night. The Tigers are firmly on the bubble — right now, third-to-last in the field. A loss plus other results could spell doom.
Bid thief threat level: None

MAAC: (1) Fairfield vs. (5) Siena
What’s on the line: A true Cinderella story if Siena pulls its third upset in three games. The regular season matchup was decided 11-7 in Fairfield’s favor.
Bid thief threat level: None

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Friday, May 1), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Northwestern should be the No. 1 seed with the most victories in the following categories: top-five teams (4) , top-10 teams (7) and top-20 teams (11) … North Carolina figures to be the No. 2 team as the highest rated one-loss team in the nation, although there is an argument for being No. 1 due to a lack of significant losses … Barring an upset by Towson, Stony Brook will enter the NCAA tournament as a seeded team in the six-to-eight range.

Navy is one of two one-loss teams remaining and could grab a top-five seed if it can polish off Army… Florida sits as the No. 9 team and needs help to get into the top eight even with a win over Colorado in the Big 12 final … South Florida might not need to win the American to make the field. The Bulls are 2-4 against top-40 opposition going into the American title game.

Denver meets Georgetown for the second time in three games. The Pioneers could be in danger of being left out if they don’t win the Big East’s AQ. … Yale took care of business against Brown in the Ivy semifinals to lock up at least an at-large bid … Fairfield is in the MAAC championship game for the eighth consecutive edition and is heavily favored over Siena.

UMass faces Akron in the MAC final outside Pittsburgh looking to prevent the Zips from a second straight title … Delaware faces host Jacksonville for the ASUN automatic bid in what should be a fantastic matchup … UAlbany used a late goal to squeak by Bryant, and now the Great Danes will try to avenge a loss to host and No. 1 seed Vermont.

Davidson delivered the shock of conference championship week: never trailing while upsetting top-seeded Richmond. Just two weeks ago, Richmond led Davidson 12-0 at halftime. The Wildcats can clinch their first NCAA bid on Sunday versus VCU … Mercer hosts the Big South final for the fifth straight year … Stonehill sewed up the NEC’s automatic bid by defeating LIU in the semifinals. The Skyhawks face host Le Moyne in the final. 

AT LARGE  (19 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Maryland has been idle and remains the projected No. 3 seed … Syracuse, also idle, had a modest RPI bump to 5th but remains 7th in this projection … Another idle team, Johns Hopkins, moved down to 7th in the RPI, but it should be considered for a top-four seed with six top-20 wins and a pair of top-10 victories.

Michigan has three wins against RPI top 10 wins. Only Northwestern and Maryland have more … Colorado could present the committee with an interesting decision should the Buffs beat Florida in the Big 12 title game. That’d be a second top-10 win and might be enough for a seed … Stanford is another idle team waiting to see where its name gets placed in Sunday’s bracket.

Army put Loyola in a precarious place with a second victory over the Greyhounds. Can the Black Knights win their first Patriot League title? … Clemson is 13th in the RPI and seems destined for a bus ride to Chapel Hill … Penn State has steadied in the 16-18 range in RPI this week, which should be enough to get in.

Rutgers is among the last four in the field … Boston College is now 19th in the RPI, but four wins over projected NCAA tournament teams will offset losses to Virginia and Duke … James Madison, the first team projected out, is a true bid thief. The Dukes must win the American to get in.

Princeton reached the Ivy League title game by beating rival Penn and probably locked up its at-large bid … Loyola will be sweating tomorrow night. The final team in this projection, wins over Navy and Princeton are huge, but Thursday’s loss to Army was a missed opportunity ... Richmond never led and dropped a heartbreaker at Davidson in the A-10 semifinals. An early season win over Virginia and a mid-season victory over USF are solid, but losses to JMU, Duke and Davidson have the Spiders out.

Georgetown is another bid thief lurking. A win at Denver gets the Hoyas in, and the Pios might get in anyway … Cornell won’t get in after failing to qualify for the Ivy League tournament … Penn’s season is over after a loss to Princeton. The Quakers are now 28th in the RPI at 8-8 … Notre Dame will be sweating because of a low RPI (29th). If selected, the Fighting Irish would be the fourth-lowest rated at-large team to make the tournament.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Notre Dame
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Delaware (ATLANTIC SUN) at (8) Stony Brook (CAA)
Florida (BIG 12) vs. Fairfield (MAAC)

Baltimore, Md.

UAlbany (AMERICA EAST) at (4) Johns Hopkins
Boston College vs. Rutgers

Annapolis, Md.

UMass (MAC) at (5) Navy (PATRIOT)
Yale (IVY) vs. Loyola

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Stonehill (NEC) at (7) Syracuse
Army vs. Princeton

College Park, Md.

Penn State vs. Davidson (ATLANTIC 10)
Winner plays at (3) Maryland

Ann Arbor, Mich.

South Florida (AMERICAN) at (6) Michigan
Colorado vs. Stanford

Last Four In: Rutgers, Princeton, Notre Dame, Loyola
First Four Out: James Madison, Georgetown, Richmond, Penn

Moving In: Davidson
Moving Out: Richmond

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Ivy League (2)