NCAA Bracketology: A Brief Moment of Stability

The upsets calmed down last week, which means the eight seeds remain the same (for now) — but small changes further down the line are setting up an exciting April sprint. Let’s see where we are, and what to look forward to as the regular season enters its final four weeks.

Rare stability at the top

Unlike the previous week, the past seven days didn’t see major changes. In fact, all eight seeds are in the same order as they were seven days ago.

Nevertheless, teams just outside of hosting are even closer than they were seven days ago. For example, the bottom two seeded teams, Stony Brook and Navy, are trailed incredibly close by Stanford, Florida and Army.

Stony Brook and Navy get the advantage today because of superior RPI (Nos. 4 and 5, respectively) ahead of Stanford (7th), Florida (9th) and Army (12th). RPI is important because the quality of victories are similar. Only Stanford (11-2) has one over a highly seeded team (Syracuse), but Stanford also has the worst loss of the bunch (Villanova).

Stony Brook (11-2) is 5-2 against teams ranked 23rd or better and beat Villanova, as did Navy (12-1). The Mids also have an important win against Florida (9-2).

Army (10-2) is a dark horse in this discussion: a quality win over Yale keeps the Bulldogs out of the discussion for now and opportunity awaits. The Black Knights get a crack at Navy on Saturday, which would effectively clinch the Patriot League’s top seed and vault them into the RPI’s top 10.

Stanford’s road is simple and difficult: win. A marquee Friday matchup with North Carolina is the ACC’s premier matchup this week. After that, the Cardinal can boost their seeding profile by making a run in the ACC tournament and meet the Tar Heels again.

Speaking of Carolina …

What if UNC’s metrics don’t improve?

It’s getting close to the time to discuss North Carolina’s credentials. The RPI (10th) and strength of schedule (19th) are quite low for the team that many have penciled as the No. 2 team in the S-Curve.

Yes, the RPI is a sorting tool, but it is the objective criteria the committee works with after win-loss record. Should the Heels beat Stanford, those numbers will get better.

There are scenarios where teams like Michigan, Syracuse and Northwestern win impactful games for a profile on paper that could rival Carolina’s, especially if the Tar Heels don’t win out.

New bubble teams join the discussion

A slate of wins by teams previously ineligible for NCAA tournament inclusion now makes the bubble a bit more crowded.

Several RPI top 40 teams hover at or just a game above .500:

• Princeton (RPI 18, 5-5)
• Penn (RPI 25, 5-5)
• James Madison (RPI 31, 7-6)
• Ohio State (RPI 35, 7-6)
• Brown (RPI 40, 6-5)
• Dartmouth (RPI 41, 6-5)
• Pitt (RPI 43, 7-7)

Only one of the above teams (Princeton) is projected in this week’s field, but given this season’s volatility, it’s not inconceivable that someone makes the leap and knocks a team out that felt comfortable for much of the season.

This week saw little turnover: Denver is in as the Big East auto bid in place of Villanova, which fell out due to a damaging loss to Marquette; and Clemson getting the final at-large nod over Rutgers.

The Tigers jumped to 17 in the RPI and have beaten a projected tournament team (Notre Dame), while Rutgers is 0-5 against projected teams.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, April 5), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Maryland leads the nation in RPI top 40 victories (10), and its run to an undefeated Big Ten regular season title features its toughest challengers in Northwestern (Thursday) and at Michigan (April 16) … Stony Brook, despite an RPI of 4, is on the cusp of getting knocked out of a seeding spot due to the lack of a significant victory (none against anyone better than 14th) … Florida has won six straight and held off a game Colorado side to take control of the Big 12.

Since its lone loss, North Carolina has outscored its opponents 42-7. Stanford is up next at home … Army’s task is simple — beat Navy, and make a case to get seeded. A loss creates a three-way tie atop the Patriot League … Yale and Penn meet in a clash of the last two Ivies with undefeated conference records. Can Yale avoid the upset?

Richmond continues to buzz the Atlantic 10. Its six wins are by an average of 12.3 goals while holding opponents to only five goals per game … Denver did what Villanova could not — beat Marquette — and now the Pioneers travel to Pennsylvania to solidify their spot atop the Big East … South Florida had a less-than-stellar week — a one-goal loss at Richmond followed by a sloppy double-OT win against a 4-9 Liberty team that featured 57 turnovers. Next up is Florida before returning to American play.

UMass took care of business against Akron … Delaware eked out a one-goal win against Saint Joseph’s heading into the homestretch of ASUN play … Fairfield is in a three-way tie for first in the MAAC and hosts one of its fellow undefeated league foes, Mount St. Mary’s, on Wednesday.

UAlbany will tussle with Bryant on Saturday for a meeting of the top teams in the America East … Mercer is 32-1 against Big South foes since 2023. Its lone loss? Furman last season. Who do the Bears play on Wednesday? Furman … LIU remains the NEC representative — tied at 4-1 with fellow eligible teams Stonehill and Wagner — due to a superior RPI.

AT LARGE  (22 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Michigan is riding a seven-game winning streak, with six of those wins by holding opponents to seven or fewer goals … Syracuse played with fire this week — a two-goal win at Cornell and a one-goal triumph at Duke. The Orange’s 11-game win streak is on the line Saturday against Notre Dame … Navy faces Army in a pivotal matchup for bragging rights, Patriot League championship implications and NCAA hosting responsibilities.

Northwestern can make a top three claim if it can sweep a road week at Maryland and Penn State … Stanford has its fourth trip out East and second in three weeks at UNC and Elon … With an 8-3 record against the RPI top 40, Johns Hopkins has a solid profile for a seed, which can be solidified with a win over Michigan on Sunday.

Penn State dominated Ohio State by nine to snap a three-game skid. The Nittany Lions have a great RPI (11) and solid SOS (17) but remain among the last four in the field … Boston College’s ascendance continues — 13th in the RPI and solidly in the field. Might the Eagles make a further push for a seed despite five losses? … Rutgers falls out of the field partly because its best win, Villanova, lost. Time is running out for the Scarlet Knights, who likely need to pick off one of Michigan, Northwestern or Penn State down the stretch.

Colorado’s three losses are by a combined five goals to the Nos. 2, 4 and 9 teams in the RPI. The Buffaloes were so close to earning a seed … Clemson got an RPI boost and is up to 17th now, but the Tigers are the last team in the field. Beating Duke on Saturday might be mandatory … At 5-5, Princeton’s margin for error is nil. With five to go, and three of them against bubble teams, the Tigers need to take care of business.

Loyola couldn’t grab a win at Boston College, but the Greyhounds have three wins over projected tournament teams (Navy, Princeton and Georgetown) … Villanova’s loss to Marquette is quite damaging, undoing the good from the Stanford upset … Georgetown takes its four-game win streak to JMU tomorrow, where a win is a must for both teams.

Penn is featured in this space for the first time this year, finally climbing out of a 1-3 start. Three straight road games at Princeton, Yale and Cornell could decide the Ivy League regular season … It’s April 7, and Notre Dame has just two regular season games left while firmly on the bubble. A win on Saturday at Syracuse would lock up a bid … Of the five losses Duke has, four are by two goals or fewer to likely NCAA tournament teams. Saturday’s game at Clemson is a must win with UNC looming on April 16.

Cornell has dropped two straight by two goals to Syracuse and Princeton, placing the Big Red farther from the bubble and possibly out of the Ivy League tournament without some wins … James Madison is not out of the at-large picture yet. Games against Georgetown and Richmond provide last gasps in non-conference action … Ohio State has dropped four of five since upsetting Northwestern and is nearly out of the bubble picture completely … Pitt might have a low RPI (43rd), but what the Panthers don’t have is a bad loss while beating three teams on the bubble (Duke, JMU and Ohio State).

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

College Park, Md.

Princeton vs. Georgetown
Winner plays at (1) Maryland

Annapolis, Md.

Fairfield (MAC) at (8) Navy
Stanford vs. Delaware (ATLANTIC SUN)

Evanston, Ill.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Northwestern
Colorado vs. Notre Dame

Ann Arbor, Mich.

South Florida (AMERICAN) at (5) Michigan
Florida (BIG 12) vs. Denver

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Loyola vs. Clemson
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

UAlbany (AMERICA EAST) at (7) Stony Brook (CAA)
Army (PATRIOT) vs. UMass (MAC)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Boston College vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (3) Syracuse

Baltimore, Md.

LIU (NEC) at (6) Johns Hopkins
Yale (IVY) vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)

Last Four In: Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Clemson
First Four Out: Rutgers, Villanova, Duke, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Pitt, Penn, Cornell, James Madison

Moving In: Denver, Clemson
Moving Out: Rutgers, Villanova

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (5), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Big East (2), Ivy (2)