NCAA Bracketology: Must-Win Season Starts Now

The two preeminent conferences begin their tournaments this week as everyone else concludes their regular seasons. A bevy of teams have must-win games ahead of them for different reasons less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday.

ACC with different types of bubble dwellers

Bubble teams will have particular interest in Wednesday’s 2 p.m. game between Duke and Clemson. The Tigers have been the first team out in our projections for the past two iterations, and a loss to Duke would likely cement that place. A win would be Clemson’s second over an NCAA tournament-bound squad.

In the 8 p.m. game, the race for a national seed has Stanford and Syracuse squaring off. The Cardinal were not in the committee’s top eight revealed last week, and they’re still shy of it now. But securing a split with the Orange would be a big boost.

Can the Big Ten get three seeds?

Unthinkable a few weeks ago was the Big Ten earning three national seeds, but it’ll need its two Old Line State teams to hold serve in Wednesday’s Big Ten quarterfinals.

Johns Hopkins fended off Penn State in overtime in the regular season, and now the two meet in the opening game of the Big Ten tournament. The Blue Jays, this week’s No. 8 seed, can’t afford a loss to a likely non-tournament team (Penn State is 7-8 and needs at least two wins in the Big Ten tournament to be eligible).

Maryland rose to the national No. 7 seed after dispatching Hopkins and squeaking by Rutgers, and a rematch with the Scarlet Knights awaits. If the Terrapins reach the Big Ten championship game, they should be assured of a national seed.

The Ivies continue to beat up on each other

The good thing about the Ivy League being so competitive is that it’s produced some amazing games with four teams in the RPI top 20 and six in the top 30. This has created the chance of getting five teams into this year’s NCAA tournament.

The bad thing is that without a set hierarchy (one team at 5-1, next three teams at 4-2), it hurts national seeding prospects. Princeton’s split last week dropped the Tigers to the No. 6 seed and Yale’s RPI dropped to No. 10 despite winning.

It also puts in peril the drive for five bids, as Brown and Harvard are among the last two of three teams in this week’s field, and Dartmouth is on the outside looking in for both the Ivy League and NCAA tournaments.

Denver, Stony Brook provide corrective action

Perennial stalwarts Denver and Stony Brook have been in and out of the projections all season, and now, they’re in as their leagues’ respective automatic bids — for now. Neither would be in on their own at-large profile, which is the case for Drexel, who is the third team out.

Minimal flight time, plus bracketing difficulty

Like last week, only two flights are required to fill out this bracket, as Stanford and Denver are western teams, and Mercer and Jacksonville can both drive to Florida.

Due to five Ivy League teams and some geographic constraints, there is imbalance in the non-seeded teams. For example, Syracuse was placed in the Baltimore pod (No. 8 Johns Hopkins), despite not being the No. 9 team in the S-curve (which ranks all teams). That means Yale, the true No. 9 team, is projected to go to College Park opposite the No. 7 seed Maryland.

As a reminder, the committee is only required to seed eight teams and can place all others as appropriate as it relates to geography, while trying to keep bracket integrity.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, April 21), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

North Carolina will sew up the No. 1 seed with an ACC tournament crown this week … Northwestern is the heavy favorite to pick up the Big Ten tournament title … Princeton had its 11-game winning streak snapped by rival Penn but had a bounce-back win over Brown. Now a win at Dartmouth would lock up the No. 1 seed to host the Ivy League tournament.

Florida is a home win over Arizona State away from a perfect Big 12 regular season … James Madison looks to make it six straight wins to end the regular season when it travels to East Carolina … Loyola secured the No. 1 seed and hosting rights for the Patriot League tournament next week by doubling up Holy Cross.

UMass has won nine straight heading into Tuesday’s Bay State clash with UMass Lowell … Stony Brook took out Drexel for first place in the CAA … Denver won twice last week and has regained the Big East’s auto bid ahead of Saturday’s battle with visiting Villanova.

Jacksonville and Liberty have been a yo-yo in the RPI as the Atlantic Sun’s automatic representative. The two face off Saturday for the regular-season title … UMass Lowell had a six-game run of wins stopped by Dartmouth. Another non-conference game against UMass is Tuesday before the River Hawks can try to clinch their first America East regular-season title on Saturday vs. Bryant … Mercer can clinch the top seed and home field in the Big South tournament with a pair of wins over Furman and Longwood.

Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC), LIU (NEC) and Robert Morris (MAC) all used to be part of the same league, now they represent three AQs.

AT LARGE  (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College seems to be on a collision path with North Carolina in the ACC tournament, but first up is Virginia. The Cavaliers took care of business against Virginia Tech and are in line to garner a top eight seed … Johns Hopkins needed overtime vs. Penn State to prevent a three-game losing streak heading into the Big Ten tournament, where a win over PSU is a pre-requisite to stay in the seeded conversation.

Maryland had one of the best weeks in the field and in the RPI, rising to No. 8 and earning a win over the No. 7 RPI team … Stanford was covered earlier and needs wins in the ACC tournament to get back into the seed lines … Yale is also in that must-win group if it is to secure a seed — and to qualify for the Ivy League tournament.

Syracuse has three wins over RPI top-10 teams and can make it a fourth when it plays Stanford … Penn’s win over Princeton assured the Quakers of an NCAA berth after flirting with the bubble for a moment … Duke’s profile doesn’t have a bad loss, but its wins aren’t exceptional either—none against the RPI top 20.

Michigan has six wins over top-40 teams and an RPI of 16, which should be good enough for an at-large berth even if it stumbles in the Big Ten tournament … Navy shouldn’t leave anything to chance, as it’s still the last team in this week’s field. Win this week and figure out a way to get to the Patriot League title game … Dartmouth will not qualify for the Ivy League tournament, but an upset of Princeton would make the resume look nice.

Harvard has put itself in a tough place. The Crimson will not qualify for the Ivy League tournament and there are no quality games left on the schedule to bolster the resume … Army inches closer to lock status with every win and can make it eight straight victories Wednesday against Colgate going into the Patriot League tournament … Clemson must beat Duke on Wednesday in the ACC quarterfinals … Brown is competing like an NCAA team, but its RPI (23) is the lowest of any projected at-large team. A win over Penn would put the Bears into lock status.

Drexel had its 10-game winning streak broken by Stony Brook on the road. The Dragons likely must win the CAA to get in now … Colorado couldn’t solve Denver, which probably ended the Buffaloes’ at-large chances … Virginia Tech needs to shock the world against UNC to continue its season … In a conference season of chaos, a Cornell upset of Yale would be massive. The Big Red would make the Ivy League tournament and bolster their at-large resume, while the Bulldogs would sit at home waiting for their name to be called on Selection Sunday.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Duke vs. Navy
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Baltimore, Md.

Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC) at (8) Johns Hopkins
Syracuse vs. Brown

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Florida (BIG 12)
Stanford vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Charlottesville, Va.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Virginia
James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Army

Newton, Mass.

Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Harvard
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

College Park, Md.

LIU (NEC) at (7) Maryland
Yale vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern

Princeton, N.J.

UMass Lowell (AMERICA EAST) at (6) Princeton (IVY)
Penn vs. Stony Brook (CAA)

Last Four In: Army, Brown, Harvard, Navy
First Six Out: Clemson, Dartmouth, Drexel, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Cornell
Moving In: Denver, Jacksonville, Robert Morris, Stony Brook
Moving Out: Akron, Drexel, Liberty, Villanova
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Ivy League (5), Big Ten (4), Patriot League (3)