NCAA Bracketology: Open Doors in this Year's Field

Even though winter clings on and conference games have barely started, we’re just 47 days away from Selection Sunday. 

It’s early, but a perennial powerhouse conference might be staring at a harder road to at-large bids less than seven weeks from now. Let’s dive in.

If the ACC is down, who benefits?

Everyone’s favorite data tool, the RPI, was unveiled Monday morning. The most surprising element is seeing how the ACC, which usually has a half-dozen teams in talks for a seed, is not even the highest-rated league in non-conference play.

The Big Ten has the best non-conference record at 54-15 (.782), already eclipsing last year’s win total (51) and improving on its solid .718 winning percentage. So, maybe the Big Ten can squeeze five or six teams into the field instead of the four from last year.

Last season, the ACC went 70-16 (.814) and snagged seven bids and three seeds on Selection Sunday. This year, the ACC is 34-15 (.694) and has just four teams in the top 20 of the RPI.

Nevertheless, the ACC has the top two teams in the nation: North Carolina and Stanford. After that there’s a clear gulf to the next set of league teams (Syracuse, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Notre Dame and Boston College).

Our bracket has three teams each from the ACC and the Big Ten in seeded lines, but the door is open for others to jump in if there are slip ups.

Add this to the sentiment that the Ivy League isn’t as strong as it’s been in the past (already 17 losses against non-conference opponents to last year’s 16) and one must wonder if there are going to be more at-large bids available to schools beyond the ACC, Big Ten and Ivy League.

Be wary of early data

The RPI is an imprecise sorting tool this early in the spring. There haven’t been enough games played to paint a full picture. For example, Boston College has an RPI of 49 but is better than that (although, spoiler alert, not good enough to get into this week’s projection).

This week’s bracket used some common sense — North Carolina as No. 1 despite being No. 5 in the RPI and Rutgers missing an at-large while having the 12th-best RPI.

Never too early to look at flights

Because it always has a downstream effect, tracking the flights needed for the bracket is imperative. This week’s projection has four such flights — Colorado, Denver, Florida and Jacksonville to the destinations of Ann Arbor and Stanford. Imbalanced brackets should be expected.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, March 16), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Navy has a legitimate shot to go undefeated in the regular season — just two teams within the top 30 remain on their schedule (Loyola, Army) and the Mids will be favored in both … Maryland has avoided a loss thus far despite close results against solid competition … Stony Brook will flirt with being seeded all season and may rue close losses to Johns Hopkins and Northwestern come May.

North Carolina is the undisputed No. 1 … Yale went on the road to handle Michigan easily in February. The Bulldogs are favorites to win the Ivy again … Colorado’s win over Northwestern has lost some luster, but the Buffaloes will battle Florida for the Big 12’s AQ this season.

Richmond is the best in the Atlantic 10, but should something go wrong, the Spiders have a non-conference win over Virginia … Jacksonville couldn’t knock off Navy, but the Dolphins are favorites in the Atlantic Sun … Denver’s lone blemish is an OT loss at Stony Brook.

James Madison may have to rely on the American’s AQ without a signature win … UMass’ switch to the MAC spells trouble for much of the Midwest’s hopefuls but will make the NCAA field stronger should the Minutewomen take care of business … Fairfield is the leader in the other MAAC, which will soon have a new name in 2027.

UAlbany has the best RPI of the America East … Winthrop is the lone team to sport a winning record in a Big South that’s typically been dominated by Mercer … LIU gets the NEC nod for now in a league with multiple teams ineligible due to transition rules.

AT LARGE  (23 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Stanford is a perfect 9-0 and will be No. 2 until UNC loses … Michigan has really good wins over Colorado and Florida … Syracuse has its nice win over Northwestern and understandable losses to UNC, Stanford and Maryland … Johns Hopkins has an odd loss to Georgetown but six wins over the top 40 is tied with Carolina for the most.

Penn State has squeaked by a few teams en route to a 9-1 record … Rutgers is just 1-4 against the top 40 … Northwestern beat Stony Brook and Army, but losses to Syracuse, Colorado and this past Sunday to Ohio State tarnish the resume.

Florida is in the next tier below seeded teams but solidly in the field … Villanova doesn’t have a top 30 win despite a high RPI … Loyola lost its first Patriot League regular season game by eight at Army; the Greyhounds may hover near the bubble all season long.

Virginia (5-5) has regained some footing after a shaky start, but the Cavaliers must be wary of staying above .500 for tournament eligibility … Duke’s win over Richmond gets the Devils in the field … USC must find a way to a few wins in a difficult Big Ten to sniff an at-large spot.

South Florida is a trendy pick in The American, and Saturday’s home game against JMU will tell a lot … Army made history against Loyola this weekend to earn a spot in this week’s field … Princeton handed Penn State its first loss of the season and might be the Ivy’s lone at-large bid

Ohio State entered the chat with its 16-15 win over Northwestern. Will the Buckeyes build off it? … Clemson beat Virginia for its signature win but hasn’t done much else yet … Georgetown has a surprise win over Johns Hopkins that will keep it in the at-large discussion if it fares well in Big East play.

Notre Dame started the season with a good win over Michigan but has yet to find another to back it up … Brown and Cornell are on the periphery of the bubble picture. The Bears have a win over Cornell, and Cornell has a win over JMU … Boston College (5-4) has won three straight going into back-to-back games against UNC and Stanford. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Winthrop (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (8) Syracuse
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. UMass (MAC)

Annapolis, Md.

James Madison (AMERICAN) at (4) Navy (PATRIOT)
Princeton vs. Duke

New Haven, Conn.

LIU (NEC) at (5) Yale (IVY)
Penn State vs. Loyola

Stanford, Calif.

Colorado (BIG 12) vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Winner plays at (2) Stanford

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Jacksonville (ASUN) at (7) Michigan
Northwestern vs. Florida

College Park, Md.

Richmond (ATLANTIC 10) vs. Ohio State
Winner plays at (3) Maryland

Baltimore, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (6) Johns Hopkins
Army vs. Virginia

Last Four In: Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Ohio State
First Four Out: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Boston College, Rutgers

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Ivy (2)