PLL Quarterfinals Primer: X-Factors, Matchups and Predictions

It’s been over a week since the last Premier Lacrosse League action, and it’s time to dig into the quarterfinal slate this Saturday in Minneapolis, Minn.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The California Redwoods (5-5) snuck into the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed after winning their last three games, and they’ll face the Carolina Chaos (5-5) at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. 

Rookie attackman Chris Kavanagh finished the season as the league's runner-up in touches with 405. The only player who finished with fewer touches was his brother, Pat.

For the Chaos, attackman Owen Hiltz emerged as one of the most potent scorers in the league during the second half of the season, and faceoff specialist Justin Inacio has been a blessing. He finished as the PLL’s leader in faceoff efficiency (60.9 percent) after being signed just a week before the season started.

The Chaos’ X-factor: Jackson Eicher

Eicher’s performance during the last two weeks of the Chaos’ season filled a crucial void. His 14 points during his last three games doubled his point total through his first seven games. Without Eicher at his best, Carolina has to rely too heavily on Hiltz — but when Eicher is on his game, the Chaos have two of the more dangerous young shooters in the PLL.

The Redwoods’ X-factor: Chayse Ierlan

Ierlan’s two games with a 55-percent save efficiency or better are the lowest among all starting goalkeepers this season. That doesn't mean Ierlan can’t get hot, though. After all, his stop against Matt Campbell as time expired during the last week of the regular season clinched the Redwoods a playoff spot.

Ierlan also had his two best performances of the season before that game, stopping 66.7 percent of his shots against the Archers and then 52 percent against the Whipsnakes. Ierlan was the X-factor to California’s three-game winning streak at the end of its season, and they shouldn’t change heading into this matchup.

Carolina’s defense vs. California’s offense

The Redwoods offense finished the regular season fourth in scoring (12.6 goals per game) but last in assists (49). California’s low assist numbers could be mainly attributed to its significant focus of playing through the attack. The Redwoods are the only team in the league to have all three of their attackmen rank in the top 10 in total touches.

That’ll put All-Star Carolina defensemen Jack Rowlett and Jarrod Neumann at the forefront of this matchup. Carolina’s defense finished in the middle of the league in scoring defense, but the Chaos have the individual talent to slow down the duo of Dylan Molloy and Chris Kavanagh. I would expect the Chaos to stick with the same matchups that earned them a sweep over California this season.

California’s defense vs. Carolina’s offense

They still hadn't found a perfect level of consistency by the end of the season, but the pieces are in place for the Chaos offense to be explosive. Midfielder Shane Knobloch is as healthy as he’s been as a pro and is coming off the best game of his career. His versatility as a shooter and dodger from all spots on the field are essential to their midfield, as the rest of that group is relatively one-dimensional in their own ways.

California’s defense allowed the second-most goals during the regular season, and barring a significant performance from Ierlan, it’s hard to think who’ll be able to slow down a hot Carolina offense.

Score prediction: Chaos win, 13-11

EASTERN CONFERENCE

In the East, the Philadelphia Waterdogs (4-6) are set to face the Maryland Whipsnakes (4-6) at 6:00 p.m. Eastern after limping into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The Whipsnakes, on the other hand, should be riding high after knocking the Cannons out of playoff contention in dramatic fashion. 

Maryland beat Boston 15-8 in a game that would have dropped them to the first-overall pick in next year’s draft if they had lost — instead, they rose to the No. 2 seed in the East.

Waterdogs’ X-factor: Off-ball defense

Maryland’s offense is littered with elite passers, and inversely, Philadelphia's defense has struggled to keep up with unselfish offenses. The Whipsnakes offense hasn’t been a model of consistency, but it is getting hot at the right time — the Waterdogs are not.

Whipsnakes’ X-factor: Rob Pannell

TJ Malone’s prowess as an elite distributor makes defenders second-guess the timing of their slides, and Brad Smith’s shooting stretches defenses out, but at this stage of his career, Pannell hasn’t been scaring opposing teams quite like either of his teammates. 

That was until three weeks ago, when Pannell finally got out of his shooting slump.

After being out of the lineup for two weeks, he scored more goals than he had all season during Maryland’s last two games. He doesn’t have to be the main initiator anymore (or even the second option), but the Whipsnakes offense looks more complete when Pannell is on his game.

Philadelphia’s offense vs. Maryland’s defense

The Whipsnakes finished at the top of the league in scoring defense, allowing just 10.8 goals per game, and they’ll face an offense that’s been out of sorts lately (outside of their last game). Michael Sowers started the season looking like he’d coast to an MVP, but has had to freelance on his own too much since the All-Star break.

During Philadelphia’s loss to Boston two weeks ago, the Waterdogs offense took a new shape. Rookie sensation CJ Kirst played his first game exclusively as an attackman and was lights out, leading Philadelphia with six goals en route to a 19-point output for the Waterdogs — who still fell short. 

Ironically, the last time these sides met, Maryland’s defense stifled Philadelphia to its worst showing of the season. That was during Kirst’s pro debut when he was a non-factor running out of the box.

This time, things will be different with Kirst now a mainstay on the attack line. Sowers will likely draw Ajax Zappitello, who led the PLL in caused turnovers this season, and Kirst will presumably draw three-time Defensive Player of the Year Matt Dunn.

Maryland’s offense vs Philadelphia’s defense

The Waterdogs defense and goalie situation have been at the epicenter of their losing streak. They started and kept Matt DeLuca in for a full game twice, tried Dillon Ward once, and let the goalies split halves against Carolina — and the results have mostly been the same.

Kenny Brower has emerged as an elite cover man, and Ben Randall has consistently been a turnover machine throughout his career, but the rest of their supporting cast hasn’t provided enough support. Philadelphia has sorely missed the off-ball presence of Liam Byrnes, and off-ball movement has been the Whipsnakes’ bread and butter the past few weeks.

Maryland has usually played its best lacrosse in the playoffs under Jim Stagnitta, and while the Whips don’t have the same talent and experience on this year’s team, some things never change.

Prediction: Whipsnakes win, 15-12