PLL Week 6 Preview: Redwoods Can Capitalize on Homecoming

The Premier Lacrosse League heads to San Diego for the California Redwoods’ homecoming weekend. Every team but the Atlas is in action for the final weekend before the All-Star break.

MARYLAND WHIPSNAKES (3-2) VS DENVER OUTLAWS (2-2)

Saturday 4 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN | Betting Lines: Outlaws -1.5 vs. Whipsnakes, O/U 22.5

Key storylines: The weekend kicks off with the Whipsnakes taking on the Outlaws on ESPN. Despite both teams coming off a loss, you could make a case that Maryland and Denver are the two best teams in the PLL right now. Carolina and California both disagree with that statement, but the Whipsnakes and Outlaws have looked extremely dominant.

Maryland still has the best score differential, and Denver is close behind with the third-best. A win could cement either team’s place near the top of their respective conferences, while a loss would put them at .500 or worse.

Both teams have been mostly fueled by a strong defense, and neither team’s settled offense has been consistent. So, which aspect of the game will end up being the deciding factor between these similar teams?

If these teams’ recent results are any indication, then this game will be won or lost in transition. Both have found a lot of success on fast breaks and in unsettled situations. The team that can convert defensive stops into instant offense should walk out of this one the winner.

Players to watch: It shouldn’t come as a surprise that both the Outlaws and Whipsnakes have found success scoring in transition when you consider both starting goaltenders’ clean save percentage. Denver’s Logan McNaney leads the league with an incredible 57-percent clean save percentage, and Emmet Carroll ranks right behind him at 48 percent.

While both rank behind Brett Dobson, Dillon Ward and Blaze Riorden in normal save percentage, McNaney and Carroll’s ability to make saves cleanly has allowed them to make quick outlet passes that often result in high-quality scoring chances. It’s also a credit to their defenses for allowing them to see shots that are theoretically easier to save. The goalie who turns defensive stops into goals the most will likely find himself on the winning end.

A few other players to monitor are Denver’s Jared Bernhardt, Pat Kavanagh and JT Giles-Harris. Bernhardt didn’t appear on the injury report this week after a hamstring injury kept him out of the Outlaws’ last game. The assumption is he’ll be good to go this weekend.

Kavanagh and Giles-Harris both played in the last game but appeared on the injury report this week as questionable. Kavanagh’s calf is what kept him out of a few games initially this season, while Giles-Harris injured his hamstring at the very end of Denver’s loss to Carolina. Both players’ status will have an impact on how the Outlaws fare on Saturday.

Bold prediction: Despite some strong settled defensive play from both teams, the Whipsnakes and Outlaws each generate plenty of offense in transition. The result is a relatively high-scoring game featuring a few two-point goals and a thrilling one-goal finish.

Best Bet: Over 22.5 (-104 on FanDuel)

BOSTON CANNONS (1-4) AT CALIFORNIA REDWOODS (3-1)

Friday 6 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+ | Betting Lines: Redwoods -1.5 vs. Cannons, O/U 25.5

Key storylines: The hometown Redwoods are the only team with just one loss. A sweep in San Diego would give California five wins and a commanding lead in the PLL standings. For Boston, the inverse is true. A loss would bury the Cannons further in last place at 1-5, while a win keeps them in the mix for the third spot in the Eastern Conference if Philadelphia loses this weekend.

California’s starting defense of Chris Conlin, Cullen Brown and Matt Wright did enough to secure a win over the Utah Archers last week, but the Redwoods still allowed 14 goals and needed Ward to make 15 saves. The unit looked solid and could have Arden Cohen back in the mix this weekend, but the jury is still out on whether this unit can maintain the standard that was set when Chris Fake and Cole Kastner were still in the lineup.

As for Boston, it also struggled on defense and is allowing the second-highest scores against average at 13 per game. Colin Kirst is seeing far too many shots, and the result has been career lows in saves per game (10.6) and save percentage (47.7 percent). The Cannons will need to be much better defensively if they want to stop a Redwoods offense that scored 16 on the best defense in the PLL last week.

Players to watch: Dylan Molloy was the engine of the Redwoods’ 16-point outburst in week five, scoring seven goals and adding two assists. His performance shifted his MVP odds from +8000 to +1200. Molloy ranks third in points (17) and tied for third in goals (10), despite playing in only four games. His 4.3 points per game ranks second-best, behind only Philadelphia’s CJ Kirst.

With two games this weekend, he’ll have the best opportunity to lead the league in scoring heading into the All-Star break. I recommend betting Molloy to win MVP at +1200 on BetMGM ahead of what could be another big weekend for the veteran.

Another Redwood to watch is faceoff athlete TD Ierlan, who needs just 11 more faceoff wins to crack the top 10 all time. Ierlan has 834 faceoff wins in just six pro seasons and will likely pass another former Redwood, Greg Puskuldjian, for 10th all-time by the end of this weekend.

As for Boston, keep your eyes on a few of the Cannons’ young offensive stars. Brian Kelly’s five-point performance in his PLL debut helped secure his spot on this Boston attack line and is why they were comfortable releasing veteran Asher Nolting this past week. However, Kelly has just four points in his last three games.

Can Kelly get his groove back? Could we see rookies Mikey Weisshaar or Jack Regnery also get some run at attack against California? All options could be on the table for a Boston team that is desperate for a win.

Bold prediction: Boston manages to hang around for a few quarters before California eventually pulls away and secures its fourth win of the season.

Best Bets: California Redwoods -1.5 (-102 on BetMGM), Dylan Molloy to win MVP (+1200 on BetMGM)

UTAH ARCHERS (2-3) VS PHILADELPHIA WATERDOGS (2-2)

Sunday 4 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+ | Betting Lines: Waterdogs -1.5 vs. Archers, O/U 21.5

Key storylines: The Waterdogs have an embarrassment of riches on offense. Their roster currently features six players who have either played for the U.S. Men’s National Team or are currently on the training camp roster. Their last two games featured the debuts of rookies Josh Yago and Kyle Lewis, and Canadian rookies Silas Richmond and Matt Collison are expected to make their PLL debut this weekend.

Waterdogs coach Bill Tierney has no easy task deciding who will play this weekend. With only 19 active roster spots and presumably only eight or nine available for offensive players, who ends up cracking Philly’s lineup this week will be fascinating.

Utah has also gotten plenty of production from its rookies. First-overall pick Aidan Maguire is starting to settle in as a two-way threat, and fellow rookies Ryan Stines and Leo Johnson have quickly become key contributors on offense. After a slow start to the season, the Archers scored at least 14 goals in back-to-back games. Can the Utah offense continue to produce against a Philadelphia defense allowing the most scores per game this season?

Players to watch: Richmond and Collison are two players to watch this weekend. While rosters haven’t been released at the time of publication, the activation of both this week makes it likely that we see both rookies make their debuts in San Diego. How both fit into this crowded offense will be interesting to watch, but it’s a good problem to have if you’re Tierney.

On the flip side, this weekend’s game will be Philadelphia veteran Kieran McArdle’s 141st of his career, and he has the chance to move up in the record book on Sunday. McArdle is just two assists shy of reaching 200 for his career and passing Conor Gill for eighth place all-time.

Bold prediction: Both offenses show up Sunday and treat fans to a back-and-forth battle with plenty of highlight goals.

Best Bet: Over 21.5 (-110 on BetMGM or FanDuel)

CAROLINA CHAOS (3-2) AT CALIFORNIA REDWOODS (3-1)

Sunday 6:30 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+ | Betting Lines: Redwoods -1.5 vs. Chaos, O/U 23.5

Key storylines: The final game of the weekend will likely decide who ends up in first place in the West. If the Redwoods, Outlaws and Archers all lose ahead of this game, all four Western Conference teams would sit 3-2, and the winner of this game would claim the top spot.

Will the well-rested Chaos have an advantage over the Redwoods in California’s second game of the weekend, or will the long layoff have a negative effect on Carolina? The Redwoods won two of three meetings last season, with the two most recent being decided by just two goals. If history is any indication, then we’re in for another close one.

Players to watch: Carolina second-round pick Ty English will make his pro debut against the team his brother, Sam, plays for. Both are midfielders who can play both ways and are valuable assets in transition.

Sam has elevated California’s offense in short shot clock scenarios. Joe Keegan pointed out that the Redwoods are scoring on 32.3 percent of their 32-second possessions when English is on the field compared to just 17.4 percent when he’s not.

Carolina is surely hoping Ty will have a similar impact for the Chaos, and how he fits on the left side of this offense with Owen Hiltz and Chad Palumbo will be fascinating to watch this weekend.

Bold prediction: Former teammates and veteran goaltenders Ward and Riorden headline a goalie duel in which each makes more than 15 saves. The result is the lowest-scoring PLL game of the weekend.

Best Bet: Under 23.5 (-115 on BetMGM or FanDuel)