NCAA Bracketology: 11 Games Left Before Selection Sunday

The results required to sort out the edge of the NCAA tournament field are coming into focus. The answers are not.

The net effect of the last two nights means much of the important stuff this weekend will happen off the field. Virginia is a no-doubt-about-it postseason team after beating Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals. Penn State did its job. And Harvard, Maryland and Yale all went one-and-done, though it’s possible as many of two of them will play on next weekend.

Here’s the basic state of play with 11 games left before the seven-person NCAA men’s lacrosse committee renders its verdicts: There are two or three spots in the field available for a group of six schools: Duke, Harvard, Maryland, Penn State, Saint Joseph’s and Yale.

Despite its wild inconsistency, Penn State is the only one of those teams in the top 10 of both the RPI and the NCAA’s strength of schedule metric. It is the only one of those teams with multiple victories against the top 10 in the RPI. It swept two games from Maryland, and it blew out Yale early in the season.

The Nittany Lions may have three noteworthy losses, but their overall profile is likely to be judged better than the rest of that lot.

As for Saint Joseph’s, it represents the possibility of bid thievery out of the Atlantic 10. Richmond has done enough to earn an at-large berth, but it can do the borderline tournament teams a favor by shunting aside the Hawks in Saturday’s A-10 final. Saint Joseph’s only gets in with a victory.

Depending on that game, it leaves four teams for one or two spots, and it’s going to be fascinating to see how the committee sizes up a flawed group.

Duke has the best RPI of the bunch … but also the weakest strength of schedule and boasts only one top-20 victory (at North Carolina).

Yale and Harvard have virtually indistinguishable resumes, though Yale did beat the Crimson last month. Neither could pull an upset Friday in the Ivy semifinals, though the Bulldogs acquitted themselves better in a 12-10 loss to Princeton than did Harvard (which was blown out 17-8 by Cornell).

As for Maryland, the Terps are hanging around, owners of the best strength of schedule but the worst RPI of the group.

With all four teams done for the weekend, their overall profiles are going to remain relatively stable, if not entirely static. One of the most notable things that could happen is Duke adding a top-20 victory and both Harvard and Yale losing one if Saint Joseph’s passes Boston University in the RPI.

That bit on the margins aside, the picture of those contenders is complete. Whatever way it turns out, it’s likely Duke, Harvard, Maryland and Yale will occupy an outsized portion of the discussion in the committee room over the next two days.

The following is based on RPI data available the evening of Friday, May 1.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Richmond is already going to make its fourth NCAA appearance in the last five years, but a victory over Saint Joseph’s in Saturday’s Atlantic 10 final would definitely make somebody (Duke? Harvard? Maryland? Yale?) happy come Sunday night. … Cornell simply overwhelmed Harvard in the Ivy semis on Friday. The Big Red advances to a Sunday afternoon meeting with Princeton. …

Johns Hopkins can win its third Big Ten tournament and first since 2018 when it meets Penn State in Saturday’s final. … Army dominated the second half Friday against Lehigh on the way to a 13-6 victory in the Patriot League semifinals. The Black Knights will face Loyola on Sunday in West Point. …

Georgetown has won its last 12 meetings with Providence, including a 15-8 triumph on April 4. A 13th in a row will secure the Hoyas their eighth consecutive Big East tournament title. … The CAA is one-bid territory, with Towson looking to finish off another perfect run through the league. The Tigers’ title game opponent is Stony Brook, a team they beat 13-10 on the road on March 21. …

UAlbany plays host to Vermont in the America East final. The Great Danes have taken five in a row from the Catamounts, including a 12-9 triumph on April 11. … Robert Morris won the regular-season meeting with fellow NEC finalist Long Island by a 14-10 margin on April 18. …

Jacksonville is a victory away from its first NCAA berth after hammering Mercer 18-3 in the Atlantic Sun semifinals. Defending champ Air Force rallied past Utah in the other game. … Siena needed double overtime to outlast Marist on March 25. The Saints will need another victory over the Red Foxes to claim the Metro Atlantic for the second consecutive season.

AT LARGE  (13 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame had a brief stay at the ACC tournament, but the numbers are the numbers. The Fighting Irish remains the most likely No. 1-overall seed. … North Carolina picked off Syracuse for the second time, and that should be enough to ensure the Tar Heels fall no further than the No. 3 seed regardless of what happens this weekend. …

Princeton’s head-to-head victory against North Carolina could go a long way toward landing the Tigers the No. 2 seed if both they and the Tar Heels win league titles on Sunday. … Syracuse closed with back-to-back losses, and the gap between the Orange and No. 4 Richmond in the RPI is larger than the one between Syracuse and No. 6 Cornell. Gary Gait’s team is probably looking at a No. 5 or No. 6 seed if Richmond wins the Atlantic 10 final. …

Friday’s biggest winner was Virginia, which is not going to sweat out whether it will pop up on the selection show and in fact is now well-positioned to land a first-round home game. … Just about everything has gone the way Duke would like it to this week. One question looms over the Blue Devils: Is one high-end victory coupled with an unremarkable non-conference schedule going to be enough? …

Penn State did as much to help itself as anyone other than Virginia this week. The Nittany Lions look better when compared to Harvard, Maryland and Yale than they did 48 hours ago, and they have a chance to remove any doubt in the Big Ten final Saturday against Johns Hopkins. …

Yale is a teensy bit better than Harvard in the metrics and owns a head-to-head victory over the Crimson. If Cornell (which Yale beat on the road) noses past Syracuse (which Harvard toppled at home) in the RPI, there’s not going to be any argument against Yale. Even now, the Bulldogs should have the edge. …

Maryland got its optimal results on Friday — losses by Harvard and Yale, plus a Virginia victory. The Terrapins will be among the teams discussed for the last couple spots. … Penn, Loyola and Ohio State are included for the sake of comparison, but none of them will land an at-large. Loyola, though, still has a shot at an automatic berth after pouncing quickly in a 13-8 defeat of Colgate on Friday in the Patriot League semifinals.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️ (possibly)
(8) Virginia vs. Penn State

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. Yale
(4) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. PATRIOT/Army

Newark, Del.

(3) North Carolina vs. CAA/Towson
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Newark, Del.

(7) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Duke
(2) Princeton vs. AMERICA EAST/Albany-METRO ATLANTIC/Siena winner

Last three included: Penn State, Duke, Yale
First three on the outside: Maryland, Harvard, Ohio State

Moving in: None
Moving out: None

Conference call: ACC (5), Ivy (3), Big Ten (2)

FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES

*per Google Maps

191: UAlbany to Princeton
192: Siena to Princeton
276: Yale to Syracuse
290: Penn State to Virginia
304: Duke to Johns Hopkins
332: Georgetown to Cornell
334: Towson to North Carolina
365: Robert Morris to Notre Dame
385: Army to Richmond
1,029: Jacksonville to Notre Dame