NCAA Bracketology: Distinguishing the Bubble Teams

Saturday’s seven conference championship games brought a few alterations to the projected field — hello, Marist and Stony Brook — but it didn’t substantially impact the NCAA tournament at-large picture.

Penn State, which already appeared to be in solid shape, locked in an automatic bid and bumped Johns Hopkins into the at-large pool. And Richmond ensured there would be no bid-snatching chicanery this year, winning the Atlantic 10 to leave an extra spot at the edge of the field.

So the most extensive Selection Sunday conversations, right up until the 9:30 p.m. bracket reveal on ESPNU, will swirl around four teams for two spots.

None of Duke, Harvard, Maryland and Yale played on Saturday, and none will play Sunday, either. None presents a profile that makes them a cinch to play on next weekend. But it’s certainly possible to identify what could make a difference.

• Straight RPI: Duke (10th) and Yale (12th) have the advantage here, with Harvard (14th) and Maryland (15th) in the mid-teens.
• Strength of schedule: Maryland (fourth) easily has the better of this category, with Yale (11th) and Harvard (12th) in back-to-back spots and Duke sitting at 17th.
• Splitting hairs with losses: None of these teams lost to anyone outside the top 20, but let’s take it further. Neither Duke nor Maryland has a loss outside the top 10. Harvard has one (Yale) and Yale has two (Army and Penn). Likewise, Duke and Maryland won’t have any losses to teams outside the field, while Yale will have at least one and Harvard could as well if Yale gets shut out.
• Total top-20 wins: Maryland has three of them, with Duke, Harvard and Yale each sitting at two.
• Head-to-head: The only game between any of these teams was Yale’s 15-9 defeat of Harvard on April 11. Given their relatively comparable profiles, it makes it difficult to see how Harvard would get in over Yale.
• Wins and losses: Duke is 9-4, Harvard and Yale are both 9-5 and Maryland is 7-6. That’s probably more of a negative differentiator for the Terps than a positive one for the other three.

There’s one other bit of data that may well make a difference. Each of these at-large contenders has a top-10 win. Duke won at North Carolina, which is No. 2 in the RPI. Yale won at No. 5 Cornell. Harvard tripped up No. 6 Syracuse at home. And Maryland went triple overtime to beat No. 7 Virginia.

Duke and Yale might end up with the best wins of the bunch after Sunday’s games. They’ll definitely end up with the best road wins of the bunch. And in a year when there’s not much daylight between teams at the edge of the field, that might provide enough of a case for the committee to come down on their side for the last at-large slots in the field.

Look for a mid-afternoon update after today’s four games conclude, though whatever changes stem from the games will have more to do with seeding (ACC and Ivy finals) and potentially swapping out one-bid league representatives (Atlantic Sun and Patriot finals) than altering the at-large field.

The following is based on RPI data available the evening of Saturday, May 1.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Richmond secured its second consecutive NCAA tournament berth and seventh in program history with an 8-6 victory over Saint Joseph’s in the Atlantic 10 final. The Spiders are likely to be the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. … Cornell plays for the Ivy title Sunday against Princeton. The Big Red has the profile of a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. …

Penn State took away any drama and will be under consideration for a first-round home game after beating Johns Hopkins to claim the Big Ten title. The Nittany Lions’ three losses outside the top 20 are going to work against their chances of landing a seeded slot. It will be Penn State’s fourth consecutive NCAA trip and ninth all-time. … Army is seeking its 19th all-time NCAA appearance when it meets Loyola in Sunday’s Patriot League final. …

Georgetown bulldozed Providence 14-6 to claim its eighth consecutive Big East tournament crown and 19th NCAA berth. The Hoyas outscored conference foes 101-51 in seven games this season. … UAlbany rallied past Vermont 14-11 to win the America East for the third consecutive season. The Great Danes are in the NCAA tournament for the 13th time, all under Scott Marr, and appear to have gotten enough help elsewhere to avoid a play-in trip. …

Robert Morris is back in the tournament for the second consecutive year, and it is likely to host the Atlantic Sun winner in a play-in game again. The Colonials will take a 13-game winning streak into the postseason after defeating Long Island to lock up the school’s fifth all-time NCAA berth. … Marist is back in the tournament for the first time since 2019 after picking off Metro Atlantic top seed Siena on the road. It’s the Red Foxes’ fourth NCAA appearance. …

Jacksonville and Air Force meet Sunday in the Atlantic Sun final, with the winner ticketed for one of the Wednesday play-in games. … Stony Brook ended a 14-year postseason drought by toppling Towson 13-11 in the CAA final. The Seawolves are staring at a play-in game as they make their fourth NCAA trip under a fourth different coach (John Espey in 2002, Rick Sowell in 2010, Jim Nagle in 2012 and Anthony Gilardi this season).

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

The last time the No. 1 seed was not the top team in the RPI was in 2015, when Notre Dame took the top spot when it was second in the RPI. It’s plausible could happen again Sunday if North Carolina wins and passes the Irish. … North Carolina has head-to-head losses to Notre Dame and Princeton, and that’s the biggest obstacle (other than an ACC title game matchup with Virginia) for the Tar Heels to claim a top-two seed. …

Princeton can add another top-10 victory (at minimum) to its profile if it beats Cornell in Sunday’s Ivy League final. … Syracuse’s metrics suggest it will be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Either way, go ahead and count on the Orange getting its customary Sunday first-round home game in the late afternoon or early evening. …

At No. 7 in the RPI, Virginia is closer in the metric’s calculation to No. 10 Duke than No. 6 Syracuse. The Cavaliers’ ceiling may very well be the No. 7 seed even if they beat North Carolina in the ACC final. … Johns Hopkins definitely would have a first-round home game if it won the Big Ten final, but there’s still a decent chance the Blue Jays get one more game at Homewood Field despite their 16-8 loss to Penn State. …

With Saint Joseph’s slipping past Boston University in the RPI, Duke now has two top-20 victories. That’s as many as both Yale and Harvard do. Both the Bulldogs and Crimson beat Boston U. … Maryland’s profile can get marginally better Sunday if both Virginia and Loyola win. … Penn and Ohio State continue to be included for the sake of thoroughness, but the numbers don’t do much to help either team.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️ (possibly)
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. Duke

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. Yale
(4) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. PATRIOT/Army

Newark, Del.

(3) North Carolina vs. AMERICA EAST/Albany ✈️
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Newark, Del.

(7) Virginia vs. BIG TEN/Penn State
(2) Princeton vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-CAA/Stony Brook winner

Last three included: Johns Hopkins, Duke, Yale
First three on the outside: Maryland, Harvard, Ohio State

Moving in: Marist, Stony Brook
Moving out: Siena, Towson

Conference call: ACC (5), Ivy (3), Big Ten (2)

FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES

*per Google Maps

113: Stony Brook to Princeton
128: Marist to Princeton
276: Yale to Syracuse
290: Penn State to Virginia
304: Duke to Johns Hopkins
332: Georgetown to Cornell
365: Robert Morris to Notre Dame
385: Army to Richmond
646: UAlbany to North Carolina
1,029: Jacksonville to Notre Dame