NCAA Bracketology: The Final D-I Men's Bracket Projection

Four games remain in the Division I men’s lacrosse regular season. Coincidentally, how the NCAA tournament selection show shakes out comes down to four questions.

The first seven teams are into the field, with four conference tournament No. 1 seeds (Georgetown, Ohio State, Richmond and Towson) locking up berths Saturday. So did the top eligible seed in the Northeast Conference (Robert Morris). And a pair of Capital District schools (UAlbany and Siena) toppled regular-season champs on the road to earn automatic berths in their respective leagues.

There aren’t many sure things to look for from the selection committee, but UAlbany and Siena (two schools separated by less than 10 miles) getting paired in a cost-effective play-in game looks like a near-certainty.

As for those four questions? Glad you asked.

Who will be the No. 1 seed?

The numbers say Maryland. The Terrapins (11-3) are still No. 1 in the RPI and strength of schedule after Saturday’s Big Ten tournament loss to Ohio State, and they possess oodles of quality victories.

Remember, though, that Cornell was No. 1 in the committee’s ranking release a couple weekends ago, and the Big Red can wrap up a 14-1 season (with the loss coming in overtime to Penn State) by beating Princeton in the Ivy League final.

This feels like a situation where some argument could be concocted to get Cornell to No. 1 that goes beyond “Maryland didn’t look good Saturday.” Maybe it’s winning percentage, maybe it stems from conference titles. But the Big Red could well be playing for the top seed this afternoon.

How will the middle four seeds shake out?

It’s a group that looks like it will include an Ivy League team (Princeton or Cornell), the ACC champ (Duke or Syracuse), Ohio State and Penn State.

Cornell isn’t falling below No. 3. Princeton probably won’t, either; it beat Duke and Penn State, its profile is better than Syracuse’s and while there might be a case for Ohio State, the Buckeyes still have to answer for their opening loss to Utah.

Ohio State would make for a solid No. 4 or No. 5 seed, as would Duke if it wins. Penn State is an interesting case. It has top-five metrics and the only defeat of Cornell, but its only other victory over a postseason team is Robert Morris. (That number grows to two if Colgate wins the Patriot League.)

The Nittany Lions have a fairly narrow band that seems fair. Look for them to be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. It seems unlikely that both ACC finalists would jump ahead of them.

Which ACC team gets sent on the road?

Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Syracuse are all getting in, but if Cornell and Princeton are hosting and so are Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State, there’s only room for three of the ACC teams to open the tournament at home.

Syracuse beat Notre Dame twice. Notre Dame won at North Carolina. North Carolina won at Syracuse. Duke lost to Notre Dame and split with North Carolina. And their profiles aren’t dramatically different, though Duke’s appears to be a bit better at the moment.

The guess here is this will wind up being the committee’s most extensive discussion. Whoever it is that gets sent on the road has a good chance to wind up in Happy Valley against Penn State.

Who gets the last spot: Army or Harvard?

Nothing’s changed since yesterday in this comparison, and it won’t change today, either. Harvard played the better schedule. Both teams have a victory over a top-10 opponent (Harvard at Syracuse, Army at home against North Carolina). Neither team has a noteworthy loss to its name.

Harvard is still a spot ahead of Army in the RPI at 11th, but the gap in the actual RPI calculation is considerable. The Crimson is at .61561, while the Black Knights are at .59171. A difference of .0239 may not seem like much, but it is really a chasm. Harvard is closer to the team four spots ahead of it (No. 7 Syracuse) than the Army team a slot below it. The guess here is the committee goes with Harvard for the final at-large berth.

Sunday afternoon update

One of the pre-Sunday questions has been effectively answered: Cornell will land the No. 1 seed. The last spot in the field will come down to Army and Harvard, which has been clear ever since both teams lost Friday.

The most intriguing facet of this bracket is seeding, particularly the process of sorting out the four ACC teams that will be in the field.

It’s inescapable that Ohio State and Notre Dame will be involved in games requiring flights (Ohio State will be home, and Notre Dame certainly could be). Unless the committee dusts off the old “The ACC isn’t a conference since it doesn’t qualify for an automatic bid” playbook last used in 2011, there’s an above-average chance an ACC school heads to Penn State for the first round.  If it’s North Carolina (or, less likely, Duke), that would require a third flight.

That, in turn, could narrow the committee’s options elsewhere. Harvard is within 400 miles of just one potential host outside the Ivy League — Syracuse. That could leave Georgetown headed to the Research Triangle, since it could bus down there. That might also avoid a Richmond-Duke rematch.

If Notre Dame is the ACC team sent to Penn State, then book Richmond a trip to North Carolina, with the possibility Harvard goes to Duke and Georgetown gets a ticket to Syracuse.

It’s a jigsaw puzzle with only so many options, and they’ll be sorted out by the 9:30 selection show on ESPNU.

The updated bracket breakdown …

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Cornell’s move up to No. 1 in the RPI eliminates the question of whether the committee would choose to bump the top team in the RPI out of the No. 1 seed. It’s not happening after the Big Red’s 20-15 defeat of Princeton in the Ivy final. … Ohio State is the Big Ten tournament champion for the first time and will make its eighth all-time NCAA appearance and first since 2022.

Atlantic 10 champ Richmond will make its third NCAA trip in four years and sixth overall after pulling away from High Point for a 16-10 victory on Saturday. The Spiders are likely going on the road in the first round, but they won’t be an easy out. … Colgate ripped Boston U to win the Patriot League tournament with a three-victories-in-six-days run. The Raiders will make their first NCAA appearance since 2015 and their fourth in program history.

Georgetown became the first Division I program to win seven consecutive conference tournaments as it turned aside Villanova in the Big East final. The Hoyas will go on the road and look for their third consecutive NCAA quarterfinal appearance. … Towson is the CAA winner for the second consecutive season and will make its 17th NCAA appearance. The Tigers will head on the road; Duke, Princeton, Ohio State and Penn State are all plausible destinations.

Siena, a 12-8 winner in the Metro Atlantic final, will make its first NCAA trip since 2014 and fourth all time. The Saints are in line to host a play-in game, likely against crosstown rival UAlbany. … Robert Morris is the probable host of the other play-in game after routing Detroit in the Northeast title game. The Colonials are back in the tournament for the first time since 2022 (when they dropped a play-in game at Delaware) and the fourth time ever. …

UAlbany is in the tournament for the second year in a row and 12th overall, all under coach Scott Marr. The America East champions will head back to a play-in game; the Great Danes defeated Sacred Heart on the Wednesday prior to the first round last year. … Air Force claimed the Atlantic Sun with an 11-10 defeat of Utah. The Falcons earned their sixth all-time tournament berth and first since 2017. They’ll be off to a play-in game, likely at Robert Morris.

AT LARGE  (11 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Maryland falls out of the top spot in the RPI, so its case for the top seed isn’t as strong. But it still gets a play-in winner as the No. 2 seed and a quarterfinal trip to Annapolis if it advances out of the first round, so it really doesn’t change things much for the Terps. … Princeton has a really solid case for the No. 3 seed. If anyone is bumping it down to the No. 4 spot, it is Ohio State. …

A No. 5 or No. 6 seed is about right for Penn State, which didn’t lose to a team outside the top five and holds the only victory over Cornell. … Go ahead and book Syracuse for the first-round anchor game on Sunday night. The Orange’s ACC tournament title should get it up to the No. 6 seed, maybe even the No. 5 if the committee values the Orange’s multiple top-10 victories over Penn State’s single (but notable) item in that category. …

Don’t think Duke will get sent on the road, but it could see the last at-large team (Army or Harvard) or a regular-season rematch with Richmond in the first round. … North Carolina has a slight RPI advantage on Notre Dame, but it also lost at home to the Fighting Irish by six last month. That could cost the Tar heels a home game. …

The guess here is Notre Dame gets the No. 7 or No. 8 seed — not an optimal slot, but still with the benefit of playing at home. … Hard to envision Harvard getting a home game, but its overall profile on paper suggests it will be the last team into the field. …

Every year, there’s a team that wishes/hopes the heretofore nonexistent “eye test” will get utilized. And Army is that team this year. Here’s a subjective declaration: If the Black Knights do miss out, they’ll be among the two or three most dangerous teams to miss the tournament since it expanded to 16 teams in 2003 (behind 2022 Notre Dame and possibly 2022 Duke). … Boston U’s regular-season defeats of Army and Colgate won’t be enough to get it in. …

A case study in how not playing extra games (and cycling out weaker opponents) hurts a team’s strength of schedule is that Michigan has dropped from first to ninth in the category in the last week.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena-AMERICA EAST/Albany winner
(8) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Syracuse vs. Harvard
(4) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. PATRIOT/Colgate

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. COASTAL/Towson
(6) Penn State vs. North Carolina

Annapolis, Md.

(7) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force winner

Last three included: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Harvard
First three on the outside: Army, Michigan, Boston U
Moving in: Air Force, Colgate
Moving out: Boston U, Utah
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)