NCAA Bracketology: The Final Men's Bracket Projection

Saturday’s seven conference championship games brought a few alterations to the projected field — hello, Marist and Stony Brook — but it didn’t substantially impact the NCAA tournament at-large picture.

Penn State, which already appeared to be in solid shape, locked in an automatic bid and bumped Johns Hopkins into the at-large pool. And Richmond ensured there would be no bid-snatching chicanery this year, winning the Atlantic 10 to leave an extra spot at the edge of the field.

So the most extensive Selection Sunday conversations, right up until the 9:30 p.m. bracket reveal on ESPNU, will swirl around four teams for two spots.

None of Duke, Harvard, Maryland and Yale played on Saturday, and none will play Sunday, either. None presents a profile that makes them a cinch to play on next weekend. But it’s certainly possible to identify what could make a difference.

• Straight RPI: Duke (10th) and Yale (12th) have the advantage here, with Harvard (14th) and Maryland (15th) in the mid-teens.
• Strength of schedule: Maryland (fourth) easily has the better of this category, with Yale (11th) and Harvard (12th) in back-to-back spots and Duke sitting at 17th.
• Splitting hairs with losses: None of these teams lost to anyone outside the top 20, but let’s take it further. Neither Duke nor Maryland has a loss outside the top 10. Harvard has one (Yale) and Yale has two (Army and Penn). Likewise, Duke and Maryland won’t have any losses to teams outside the field, while Yale will have at least one and Harvard could as well if Yale gets shut out.
• Total top-20 wins: Maryland has three of them, with Duke, Harvard and Yale each sitting at two.
• Head-to-head: The only game between any of these teams was Yale’s 15-9 defeat of Harvard on April 11. Given their relatively comparable profiles, it makes it difficult to see how Harvard would get in over Yale.
• Wins and losses: Duke is 9-4, Harvard and Yale are both 9-5 and Maryland is 7-6. That’s probably more of a negative differentiator for the Terps than a positive one for the other three.

There’s one other bit of data that may well make a difference. Each of these at-large contenders has a top-10 win. Duke won at North Carolina, which is No. 2 in the RPI. Yale won at No. 5 Cornell. Harvard tripped up No. 6 Syracuse at home. And Maryland went triple overtime to beat No. 7 Virginia.

Duke and Yale might end up with the best wins of the bunch after Sunday’s games. They’ll definitely end up with the best road wins of the bunch. And in a year when there’s not much daylight between teams at the edge of the field, that might provide enough of a case for the committee to come down on their side for the last at-large slots in the field.

Sunday delivered four uncompetitive games, as Princeton made a play for the top seed, Virginia finished strong with a rout of North Carolina and Army (Patriot) and Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun) secured automatic berths.

The notable metrics shifts were Princeton (up to No. 1 from No. 3), Richmond (up a spot to No. 3) and Maryland (slipping up to No. 14) gaining in the RPI while Notre Dame (down to No. 2), North Carolina (dropping two spots to No. 4) and Harvard (down to No. 15) taking slight hits.

Another thing that happened was Robert Morris nosing ahead of UAlbany. One of those teams is going to host a play-in game, and one of them will get direct entry into the field. The committee is not required to take the four lowest-ranked automatic qualifiers in the RPI to set the play-in games, and the Colonials have a bottom-15 loss on their ledger.

The final bracket projection features a swap of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, but that’s the only change from earlier Sunday.

The following is based on RPI data available the evening of Sunday, May 3.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Princeton moved into the top spot in the RPI with its victory over Cornell in the Ivy League final. The Tigers are going to be a top-two seed for the first time in a quarter-century. Princeton was the No. 2 seed in 2001 when it won its last national title. … Richmond secured its second consecutive NCAA tournament berth and seventh in program history with an 8-6 victory over Saint Joseph’s in the Atlantic 10 final. The Spiders are likely to be the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. …

Penn State took away any drama and will be under consideration for a first-round home game after beating Johns Hopkins to claim the Big Ten title. The Nittany Lions’ three losses outside the top 20 are going to work against their chances of landing a seeded slot. It will be Penn State’s fourth consecutive NCAA trip and ninth all-time. … Army will make its 19th NCAA tournament appearance and first since 2023 after smoking Loyola in the Patriot League final. The Black Knights have advanced to the quarterfinals twice in three tournament trips under Joe Alberici (2010, 2023). …

Georgetown bulldozed Providence 14-6 to claim its eighth consecutive Big East tournament crown and 19th NCAA berth. The Hoyas outscored conference foes 101-51 in seven games this season. … Robert Morris is back in the tournament for the second consecutive year, and it is likely to host the Atlantic Sun winner in a play-in game again. The Colonials will take a 13-game winning streak into the postseason after defeating Long Island to lock up the school’s fifth all-time NCAA berth. …

UAlbany rallied past Vermont 14-11 to win the America East for the third consecutive season. The Great Danes are in the NCAA tournament for the 13th time, all under Scott Marr, and appear to have gotten enough help elsewhere to avoid a play-in trip. … Marist is back in the tournament for the first time since 2019 after picking off Metro Atlantic top seed Siena on the road. It’s the Red Foxes’ fourth NCAA appearance. …

Jacksonville will make its NCAA tournament debut after clobbering Air Force 16-7 to claim the Atlantic Sun title. … Stony Brook ended a 14-year postseason drought by toppling Towson 13-11 in the CAA final. The Seawolves are staring at a play-in game as they make their fourth NCAA trip under a fourth different coach (John Espey in 2002, Rick Sowell in 2010, Jim Nagle in 2012 and Anthony Gilardi this season).

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

The last time the No. 1 seed was not the top team in the RPI was in 2015, when Notre Dame took the top spot when it was second in the RPI. It’s plausible it could happen again Sunday if the committee goes with the Irish over Princeton. … North Carolina is going to be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed after Sunday’s ACC tournament loss to Virginia. If the Tar Heels get the No. 3 spot, it will probably be due to a strength of schedule advantage vis-à-vis Richmond. …

Cornell will still host a first-round game despite getting blown out by Princeton in the Ivy final. The Big Red ended up one-thousandth of a point ahead of Syracuse for fifth in the final RPI, so a No. 5 or No. 6 seed sounds right for the defending champs. … Syracuse’s metrics also suggest it will be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Either way, go ahead and count on the Orange getting its customary Sunday first-round home game in the late afternoon or early evening. …

Will be curious to learn if Virginia’s victory over North Carolina raised its ceiling above the No. 7 seed. Remember, the Cavaliers did lose to Syracuse, and while their top-line victories are impressive, there isn’t as much depth to their profile as Cornell and Syracuse amassed. … Johns Hopkins definitely would have a first-round home game if it won the Big Ten final, but there’s still a decent chance the Blue Jays get one more game at Homewood despite their 16-8 loss to Penn State. …

With Saint Joseph’s slipping past Boston University in the RPI, Duke now has two top-20 victories. That’s as many as both Yale and Harvard do. Both the Bulldogs and Crimson beat Boston U. … Maryland did pass Harvard in the RPI on Sunday. … Penn and Ohio State continue to be included for the sake of thoroughness, but the numbers don’t do much to help either team.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Newark, Del.

(1) IVY/Princeton vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist-CAA/Stony Brook winner
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. Duke

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. Yale
(4) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. PATRIOT/Army

Newark, Del.

(3) North Carolina vs. AMERICA EAST/Albany ✈️
(6) Cornell vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) Virginia vs. BIG TEN/Penn State
(2) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️ (possibly)

Last three included: Johns Hopkins, Duke, Yale
First three on the outside: Maryland, Harvard, Ohio State

Moving in: Marist, Stony Brook
Moving out: Siena, Towson

Conference call: ACC (5), Ivy (3), Big Ten (2)

FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES

*per Google Maps

113: Stony Brook to Princeton
128: Marist to Princeton
276: Yale to Syracuse
290: Penn State to Virginia
304: Duke to Johns Hopkins
332: Georgetown to Cornell
365: Robert Morris to Notre Dame
385: Army to Richmond
646: UAlbany to North Carolina
1,029: Jacksonville to Notre Dame