NCAA Bracketology: Good Luck Making Sense of This

Good luck making sense of this.

The first RPI release of the season from the NCAA on Monday morning reinforced how difficult it is to make sense of any team’s postseason profile with as little as a half-dozen games per team to evaluate.

But let’s try it anyway.

It’s merely 47 days until lacrosse enjoys its Selection Sunday, which means March 17 marks the actual midpoint of the season. (Utah and Delaware met back on Jan. 30). And while a handful of leagues (Atlantic Sun, Big East, Big Ten) haven’t even ventured into their league schedules, there are a few conclusions that can be drawn.

Princeton’s strength of schedule is already paying off. So is Boston University’s. Four ACC teams are already in decent position.

And yeah, the RPI isn’t a great formula to begin with and especially limited with so few data points.

So here are a few ground rules for this exercise. The team with the best RPI among teams tied for the league lead in the loss column are assumed to be the automatic qualifiers, with sub-.500 teams left out if no conference games have been played. And everyone else with a .500 or better record that also had (a) a top-20 RPI; (b) a top-20 strength of schedule; or (c) a top-20 victory is listed as an at-large candidate.

Those qualifiers didn’t produce as many postseason candidates as many might assume. That will likely change at least a little in the next few weeks, but for now it’s simply a starting point as the entire season starts to come into focus.

The initial bracket breakdown …

The following is based on RPI data available on Tuesday, March 17.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Yes, Princeton has a loss. But a team that’s first in both RPI and strength of schedule isn’t getting bumped from the No. 1 overall seed. That would only get bolstered with a defeat of Cornell on Saturday. … Boston University is benefitting both from a strong schedule and an early victory over Army. There is also some improvement in much of the Patriot League, so the Terriers’ schedule strength might not drop as much as it may have at times in recent years. …

A great question for Richmond is how its strength of schedule would look if it could have played Maryland on the opening weekend. The Spiders will get a boost in that area just from playing Notre Dame next month. … Johns Hopkins is top 10 in both RPI and strength of schedule but hasn’t beaten a top-20 team (yet). That’s why the Blue Jays are a road team in the projection below. …

Could Sacred Heart run the table and avoid a play-in game? The Pioneers are not off to a flukish start; they’re now 32-8 over the last three seasons. The one area of concern is their strength of schedule. ... Georgetown has the best RPI in the Big East (14), but with the Hoyas under .500 and no conference games played yet, Denver gets the nod as the league’s AQ for now. …

It is already abundantly clear that the America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (Utah), CAA (Towson) and NEC (Robert Morris) will be one-bid leagues, no matter who wins the conference tournament in May.

AT LARGE  (16 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Much like Princeton, Syracuse’s RPI and strength of schedule numbers make it hard to put it anywhere other than a top-two slot. Fortunately, plenty of meaningful head-to-head games remain for the Orange, including against Notre Dame and Duke. … Under typical conditions, Notre Dame would get more credit for beating Georgetown, Maryland and Ohio State than it is at the moment. If those teams do well in the next six weeks, the Irish will benefit. …

Duke has avoided an early pitfall, but it has also only faced one top-20 team (Saint Joseph’s). The Blue Devils’ bracket fate ultimately will be decided by the next seven weekends: Denver, at Syracuse, Virginia, Cornell (neutral), Notre Dame, at North Carolina, ACC tournament. … Army is right around the cut line for now, and winning at North Carolina on Saturday is the Black Knights’ last remaining chance prior to the Patriot League tournament to make a splash. …

North Carolina’s schedule strength is only going to improve after contending with the rest of the ACC. A head-to-head defeat of Johns Hopkins nudges it into seeded territory for now. … Saint Joseph’s owns a top-15 schedule strength as a bit of serendipity. The Hawks had a game against NJIT (No. 56) canceled and another against Monmouth (No. 58). They could be 6-2 and in worse shape relative to the rest of the field than they are at 4-2. It really shouldn’t work that way. …

The numbers don’t favor Harvard, but common sense suggests an undefeated team with a victory over the projected No. 2 seed should be in the field somewhere. … Rutgers enters Big Ten play with victories over Bellarmine (No. 27) and Long Island (No. 28) headlining its profile. There is work to do over the next six or seven weekends. …

A victory over Boston University and shrewd scheduling in general have put Yale in position to be a factor in the at-large chase. … Ohio State is going to be fine if it does well in Big Ten play, and its victory over Georgetown has a chance to grow in value as well if the Hoyas thrive in the Big East. …

Penn State owns the best victory on the board, a 13-7 triumph at Princeton on Feb. 14. But the notable losses count, too, which means the Nittany Lions have the most colorful profile in the first half of the season. … Cornell has opportunities on its side, with games against Princeton, Yale, Duke and Harvard still to come (not to mention possibly the Ivy League tournament). …

Maryland went 0-for-3 in its highest-profile non-conference games, and the victory over the weekend against Virginia (No. 35) isn’t worth much at the moment. For the first time in a long while, the Terrapins aren’t operating from a position of strength in mid-March. … Dartmouth nosed into the top 20 thanks to Denver’s loss to Syracuse on Monday. The Big Green still have a full Ivy League slate plus a trip to Virginia still to come. … Navy does have a victory over Penn State, but it still isn’t that close to the edge of the field. …

Beating Army for the first time in 44 all-time meetings was a momentous step for Lafayette, but the Leopards’ metrics and significant losses mean their path to the NCAA tournament is with a Patriot League tournament title.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) IVY/Princeton vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont winner
(8) North Carolina vs. BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins

Annapolis, Md.

(5) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. Penn State
(4) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Denver

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
(6) Harvard vs. Army

Annapolis, Md.

(7) PATRIOT/Boston University vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart
(2) Syracuse vs. NEC/Robert Morris-COASTAL/Towson winner                                           

Last three included: Army, Ohio State, Penn State
First three on the outside: Yale, Cornell, Saint Joseph’s

Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)