NCAA Bracketology: Sorting Out the NCAA's Top 10

The NCAA men’s lacrosse committee’s annual midseason (late season?) top 10 reveal came and went Saturday, and it’s probably worth dwelling on a little bit this week for two reasons.

First, the rankings counted all games through Friday, and the top seven teams all went out and won on Saturday. Nos. 8-10 all lost to top seven teams. There probably wasn’t a whole lot of movement as a result of this past weekend, and that’s reflected in this week’s projected field at the bottom.

Second, it might — might — offer a clue on what this committee might or might not value as much.

Let’s take a look at the NCAA release set next to last week’s USA Lacrosse Magazine projection. It’s easy enough to double-check Nos. 1-8 in that. Cornell and Maryland weren’t delineated as Nos. 9 and 10 in that post, but it would have been difficult to place the Terps at No. 9, a spot behind a Virginia team they already beat. So here’s a plea for a little belief in how those two teams were meant to be ordered.

The top five are identical; some head-to-head results (Princeton over North Carolina, North Carolina over Syracuse) help in sorting those teams out. The next five teams are the same, but the order is jumbled. Most notably, the NCAA committee rated Cornell two spots higher and both Harvard and Virginia two spots lower.

The Cornell situation might be partially explained by a one-spot rise in the RPI thanks to Tuesday night’s games. UAlbany beat Siena and Yale handled Hofstra, and Cornell played both of the winning teams earlier in the year. The metrics might have been enough to nudge the Big Red up a spot. Or it just might be a misevaluation of how the committee would treat Cornell.

Harvard and Virginia are more interesting, because so much of their postseason arguments are based on a single high-end victory. Harvard took down Syracuse for the second regular season in a row, while Virginia owns the only victory over Notre Dame.

There aren’t many top-five victories floating around (nine coming out of the weekend, to be precise), so they have value. But it might not be infinite, and neither the Crimson nor the Cavaliers should count on claiming a first-round home game on the strength of a single great day. Both still have more work to do — as does anyone trying to figure out what this committee will emphasize in less than two weeks.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 20.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Princeton has done more than enough to make the field and is in excellent shape to earn a first-round home game — though beating Dartmouth at home on Saturday would remain whatever faint doubt on that front. … A similar deal for Richmond. The Spiders’ victories over Cornell and Virginia would look good compared to other potential at-larges, but it wouldn’t hurt to win at High Point on Friday. …

Johns Hopkins is effectively out of games to lose that could cost it a spot in the field. The Blue Jays’ seeding ceiling isn’t super high — No. 4 if you squint just right, No. 5 or 6 more realistically — but a victory in the Big Ten semifinals might just lock up a home game. … Army enters the final week of Patriot League play with the best RPI of the three teams tied at the top. The Black Knights own victories over Yale and Loyola, and that’s probably not enough to land an at-large berth. …

Georgetown’s RPI continues to gradually sink. Securing an outright regular season title on Friday at Villanova (RPI: 38) isn’t going to help the Hoyas. … The committee could bus Towson to all but one of the projected first-round hosts. The Tigers are a team that would make the bracketing process easier if they win the CAA. …

The NEC regular season champion is Robert Morris, which handled LIU on Saturday. The Colonials will host a conference tournament for the third time after doing so in 2012 (NEC) and 2023 (Atlantic Sun). … Utah has won four in a row and eight of nine after blanking Queens 18-0 on Saturday. The Utes are assured of a slice of the Atlantic Sun regular season title. …

UAlbany beat Siena and fell to Yale last week, and its RPI shot up to the mid-20s. An America East tournament title coupled with a surprise winner in the Big East, CAA and/or Patriot League could get the Great Danes out of a play-in game. … Siena earned tournament hosting rights in the Metro Atlantic with its victory over Mount St. Mary’s on Saturday.

AT LARGE  (14 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame, North Carolina and Syracuse are all playing for seeding and ACC titles the next two weekends. All three have done enough to earn first-round home games in the NCAA tournament even if they lose out. … Sure looks like the winner of Saturday’s Harvard-Cornell game will be in the catbird’s seat for a first-round home game as well. The Ivy League tournament could be particularly crucial for the loser. …

Virginia and Maryland have resumes that are about as close as possible. The Cavaliers have the best victory (Notre Dame), while the Terrapins own a head-to-head. Both teams also avoid making their lives messy by winning home games this week — Virginia against Drexel (RPI: 31) on Friday, Maryland against Rutgers (RPI: 22) on Saturday. …

Penn State steered clear of facing an absolute must-win in its Big Ten tournament opener when it doubled up Rutgers. But the Nittany Lions are still occupying the last at-large spot, and it would behoove them to beat whoever comes out of the Maryland-Rutgers game on April 30. … Yale’s profile is actually pretty stout, and it doesn’t have the unsightly losses that Penn State does. Yet the Bulldogs also lost 17-7 to the Nittany Lions back on Feb. 28. A result with that margin would be a difficult-to-ignore data point if it ultimately came down to those two teams. …

Beating Michigan didn’t change things much for Ohio State, and beating the Wolverines again this week won’t help much, either. The Buckeyes probably need to pick off Johns Hopkins in the Big Ten semifinals to have a realistic shot at an at-large. … Duke will miss the ACC tournament, leaving it just Saturday’s game at North Carolina remaining. Even winning that game is exceedingly unlikely to vault the Blue Devils into the field. …

There’s not enough resume heft for Penn, Boston University and Loyola to earn at-large nods, though each is included as a current top-20 team. Penn won at Yale, Boston University upended Army and Loyola defeated Boston University and Towson.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️ (possibly)
(8) Harvard vs. Maryland ✈️

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) Syracuse vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Newark, Del.

(3) North Carolina vs. CAA/Towson
(6) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Virginia

Newark, Del.

(7) Cornell vs. Penn State
(2) IVY/Princeton vs. AMERICA EAST/UAlbany-METRO ATLANTIC/Siena winner

Last three included: Maryland, Virginia, Penn State
First three on the outside: Yale, Ohio State, Penn

Moving in: Army
Moving out: Loyola

Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)

FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES

*per Google Maps

157: Virginia to Johns Hopkins
174: Penn State to Cornell
191: UAlbany to Princeton
192: Siena to Princeton
334: Towson to North Carolina
365: Robert Morris to Notre Dame
369: Georgetown to Syracuse
385: Army to Richmond
429: Maryland to Harvard
1,474: Utah to Notre Dame