NCAA Bracketology: 7 Bubble Teams, 3 Spots

The regular season has concluded, two automatic bids have been awarded and we are just five days away from Selection Sunday. Let’s dig into who’s in, who’s out and who’s hosting.

Setting the seeding stage

The top three seeds are locked down: ACC champion North Carolina, ACC runner-up Boston College and Big Ten champion Northwestern. After that, Florida is the presumed No. 4 seed as long as it takes care of business in the Big 12.

The next two teams: Maryland (RPI No. 6) and Virginia (No. 7) are certainly going to be seeds. The Cavaliers played the third-hardest schedule and own wins over fellow seeded prospects Maryland and Princeton. The Tigers are No. 4 in the RPI and don’t seem destined to drop out of the top eight unless they get upset by Brown in the Ivy League semifinals.

So, for today, there’s a fight for one spot among teams rated Nos. 8-11 in the RPI: Johns Hopkins (8), Stanford (9), Yale (10) and Penn (11). And arguably, the two Ivies control their destiny. Especially Penn.

The Quakers already have top-10 victories over Princeton and Maryland, and Yale could be a third if the Bulldogs remain in the RPI’s top 10. Yale doesn’t own a top-10 RPI win yet, but an Ivy League tournament title would almost certainly clinch a seed.

Stanford has the inside track for now — It’s tied for the most wins (4) against the RPI top 20 with Hopkins, and two of those wins are against RPI top-10 teams (Virginia, Yale). Hopkins is the first team looking in having slid to 3-3 in its past six games and without a win over any top 10 teams.

A light bubble discussion

The bubble talk, as of now, seems relatively straightforward. Teams like Michigan, Clemson and Duke have played their way into the field with significant wins during conference play.

The discussion today comes down to seven teams for the final three spots. Let’s take them in RPI order:

Navy (19): The Mids are 1-2 against the RPI top 20, but its big win is over No. 6 Virginia. They lost to Army and to Jacksonville (the projected ASUN champion).

Army (20): Beat Stanford and Navy to go 2-1 against the RPI top 20; its worst loss is to Colorado. If the Black Knights beat Navy in the Patriot semis, put them in lock status.

Dartmouth (21): The Big Green have good numbers but not a ton of quality. Wins over UMass and Colorado are nice, but Dartmouth didn’t make its own conference tournament.

Drexel (23): The Dragons are a mixed bag — they beat fellow bubble dweller Harvard but lost two important games to Stony Brook and UConn.

Harvard (24): The Crimson are 2-2 against the RPI top 20 and beat Penn, Navy and Dartmouth. But they also lost to three non-tournament teams (Drexel, Cornell, Notre Dame). Plus, they can’t redeem themselves in the Ivy League tournament.

Brown (25): The Bears are 1-4 against RPI top 20, beat Yale, Dartmouth and Harvard. They made the Ivy League tournament, which might be enough to get included, but will the selection committee pass over other teams with a better RPI?

Colorado (26): The Buffaloes, like Brown and Dartmouth, are 1-4 against RPI top 20. The wins over Army and Stony Brook are good, but the losses to Dartmouth, Denver and USC are decidedly not.

Bid thief awareness

There are only two leagues with significant chances of a bid thief: the Patriot League and the American Athletic Conference. In the Patriot, if Holy Cross snags the auto bid, that’s bad news for the bubble teams.

Similarly, if James Madison doesn’t hold serve in the one-bid American, that’s another one gone. The Dukes were taken to OT by East Carolina this weekend.

Book your flights

After two weeks with no western host and only two necessary flights, we’re back to needing at least five flights with Florida, Northwestern and Stanford as seeds. Stanford would host three schools that will need to fly, while Florida and Northwestern would each host one.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, April 28), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

*Automatic qualifier clinched

North Carolina is the undisputed No. 1 seed and the favorite to win it all this May … Northwestern needed a massive comeback to secure the Big Ten title and lock down the No. 3 seed … Princeton has a must-win against Brown to stay amongst the seeded teams.

Florida is the heavy favorite to take home the Big 12 crown and lock in a top five seed … James Madison will be cheered by bubble teams to ensure The American is a one-bid league … Loyola will also be cheered by bubble teams, except the service academies.

UMass has a good RPI (17) without a significant win. The A-10 is almost assuredly a one-bid league this year … Stony Brook hosts the CAA tournament with a bit more pressure than usual as a loss would mean missing the NCAA tournament … Denver is the top seed in the one-bid Big East, but that tournament is truly wide open.

Jacksonville is the No. 1 seed in the ASUN, but the tournament is hosted at No. 2 Liberty … Bryant defeated UMass Lowell to claim the top seed in the America East tournament, which is an unpredictable affair … Mercer hosts the Big South tournament as the top seed in a conference where three teams claimed regular season crowns (High Point, Furman).

Mount St. Mary’s hosts the MAAC semifinals and final as the top seed with Fairfield lurking as the No. 2 seed … LIU isn’t the top seed in the NEC — that’s Stonehill — but the Skyhawks aren’t NCAA eligible yet … The truly unpredictable MAC has Robert Morris hosting its tournament, but all four teams carry losses into the proceedings.

AT LARGE  (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College reached the ACC final and will be the No. 2 seed on Sunday … Maryland nearly took out Northwestern in the Big Ten final but will still earn a national seed in the process … Virginia has the chance to be seeded higher in the national tournament than in its own conference tournament (7th).

Johns Hopkins’ recent run hasn’t been convincing, and the Jays are in peril of dropping out of the seeded ranks … Stanford made the ACC semifinals and could snag that final seeded slot … Yale vs. Penn in the Ivy semifinals will be the most impactful non-championship game of the weekend, as both teams have chances to earn a national seed.

Syracuse is securely in the field but has too many losses to earn a seed and has dropped four of its last six … Michigan reached the Big Ten semifinals to secure its at-large bid … Clemson seems to have guaranteed its first NCAA tournament berth with an RPI of 16 and two wins over projected NCAA squads.

Duke is listed as one of the last four in, and that’s because of a pedestrian RPI (18) and only one win over a top-20 squad … Navy is in the same boat as Duke and would secure its place in the field with a Patriot League semifinal win over Army. The Black Knights are in good position — 2-1 vs. RPI top 20 and 4-2 against the top 40.

Dartmouth will sit idle this week, as it didn’t qualify for the Ivy League tournament, seemingly without enough quality wins to get in the NCAA tournament … Drexel’s RPI has risen, but the quality of its wins has fallen, and thus the Dragons need to win the CAA to get in … Harvard will make it tough on the committee — it didn’t qualify for the Ivy League tournament but beat Penn, Navy and Dartmouth. Losses to Notre Dame, Cornell, and to a lesser extent Drexel, will be tough to gauge.

Brown is in must-win territory against Princeton in the Ivy League semifinals. The RPI has dipped (25th) and there’s only one quality victory (Yale) … Colorado probably can’t get in without winning the Big 12 tournament, which it’s hosting … Virginia Tech didn’t pull off the shocker over North Carolina and will be among the first six teams left out … UConn has decent wins (UMass, Drexel, Denver) but some head-scratching losses (Marquette, Villanova) and will need the Big East AQ.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Navy
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Stanford, Calif.

Bryant (AMERICA EAST) at (8) Stanford
Johns Hopkins vs. Denver (BIG EAST)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Florida (BIG 12)
Syracuse vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Charlottesville, Va.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Virginia
James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Army

Newton, Mass.

Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Brown
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Princeton, N.J.

Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC) at (7) Princeton (IVY)
Yale vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Duke
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern

College Park, Md.

LIU (NEC) at (6) Maryland
Penn vs. Stony Brook (CAA)

Last Four In: Duke, Army, Navy, Brown
First Six Out: Harvard, Dartmouth, Colorado, Drexel, Virginia Tech, UConn
Moving In: Bryant, Clemson
Moving Out: Harvard, UMass Lowell
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (4), Patriot League (3)