NCAA Bracketology: Assessing Risk of Bid Thieves

There are just 13 games remain before Selection Sunday, and each one has a unique effect on the 29-team field. Below we examine what’s on the line and give our penultimate bracket projection.

Saturday’s championship games

American Athletic: (1) James Madison vs. (2) South Florida
What’s on the line: USF looks to win the AAC title in its inaugural season and reach the NCAA tournament, which would be an amazing feat done only once before (High Point, 2011). Moreover, this is the first bid thief scenario, as JMU is firmly in the field.
Bid thief threat level: Moderate

Atlantic Sun: (4) Coastal Carolina at (2) Liberty
What’s on the line: Coastal Carolina upset Jacksonville in the ASUN tournament for the second straight year in its quest for back-to-back NCAA tournament trips. If Coastal wins, they’ll most likely head to Virginia, but if Liberty reaches its first NCAA tournament, the Flames have placement flexibility.
Bid thief threat level: None

Big 12: (1) Florida vs. (3) Arizona State
What’s on the line: The first Big 12 champion. For Florida, it means securing the No. 4 seed and a hosting path through the quarterfinals, while Arizona State is still looking for its first NCAA berth.
Bid thief threat level: Low

Big East: (1) Denver at (2) Villanova
What’s on the line: Both teams’ seasons. Denver had some clumsy losses and will likely be on the outside looking in if it loses to host Villanova in the Big East final.
Bid thief threat level: Low

CAA: (2) Drexel at (1) Stony Brook
What’s on the line: A rematch of last year’s CAA title tilt, this game likely determines the future of both teams. The CAA doesn’t appear to be a multi-bid league, so winning today seems mandatory.
Bid thief threat level: Low

MAC: (3) Akron at (1) Robert Morris
What’s on the line: Akron’s first NCAA tournament bid and a bus ride to Evanston, or a return trip for Robert Morris. RMU can drive to nearly any site that isn’t among the top three seeds.
Bid thief threat level: None

NEC: (3) LIU at (1) Stonehill
What’s on the line: A trophy. Due to Stonehill’s transitional period from Division II, LIU has clinched the NEC’s automatic berth for a second straight year.
Bid thief threat level: None

Patriot: (3) Navy at (1) Loyola
What’s on the line: Another chapter in a really fun rivalry for the Patriot auto berth, although both teams are almost assured of being in the field already. Moreover, whoever wins increases its chance to avoid traveling to one of the top two seeds.
Bid thief threat level: None

Sunday’s championship games

America East: (3) UAlbany at (1) Bryant
What’s on the line: The only bid out of the America East. Bryant is looking for its first America East title, and thus, its first NCAA bid since 2017. UAlbany is competing in its 14th straight America East championship game and is trying to return to the NCAA tournament for the second time in three years.
Bid thief threat level: None

Atlantic 10: (1) UMass vs. (2) Saint Joseph’s
What’s on the line: If UMass can win the title in its final year as a member of the A-10. In its way is Saint Joseph’s, which upset the Minutewomen in the 2022 title game. The Hawks have gone 10-1 since starting 1-6. Despite UMass’s high RPI, they’re unlikely to get an at-large bid.
Bid thief threat level: Low

Big South: (2) High Point at (1) Mercer
What’s on the line: In this one-bid league, it’s about whether the champion drives to Florida (Mercer) or drives to somewhere closer, like North Carolina, Virginia or Maryland (Hight Point).
Bid thief threat level: None

Ivy League: (2) Yale at (1) Princeton
What’s on the line: Hosting rights. For Princeton, those seem confirmed with an RPI of 4. For Yale, a win would surely supersede the loss to Stanford and get them into the top eight.
Bid thief threat level: None

MAAC: (2) Fairfield vs. (4) Iona
What’s on the line: A first trip to the NCAA tournament for Iona and redemption for Fairfield after last year’s championship upset. The Gaels had already made history by winning their first playoff game last week before taking down host and top-seeded Mount St. Mary’s on Friday.
Bid thief threat level: None

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Friday, May 2), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

*Automatic qualifier clinched

North Carolina will be well rested whenever it faces its NCAA second-round opponent as the No. 1 seed … Northwestern is in the same camp as UNC, but as the No. 3 seed … Princeton improved its seeding prospects with a big comeback to beat Brown in the Ivy semifinals.

Florida had no problem dispatching UC Davis in the Big 12 semifinals and is a huge favorite to capture the title over Arizona State … James Madison faces upstart South Florida in the AAC final, where a loss would shrink the bubble … Loyola hosts Navy in a rematch of one of the regular-season’s most fun games.

UMass enters its 17th straight Atlantic 10 championship game looking to win its first title since 2021. The A-10 is likely a one-bid league … Stony Brook has a stronger profile than UMass but likely has to win its championship game against Drexel to reach the tournament … Denver is in a must-win against Villanova, as there’s no flotation device in the at-large pool.

Liberty will be the slight favorite to win the ASUN title on its own turf against defending champion and upset-minded Coastal Carolina … Bryant avoided the No. 1 seeds who were upset in the semifinals with a comeback victory over UMBC — next up is UAlbany … Fairfield overcame a tough Siena squad to reach the MAAC final where it will see first-time finalist Iona.

Mercer sees nemesis High Point, who has a superior RPI, in the Big South final both of whom have ACC scalps this season … LIU has locked up the NEC’s auto bid ahead of its championship tilt against transitioning Stonehill … Robert Morris hosts Akron for the MAC title, which could help the committee lower its flight utilization if the Zips win.

AT LARGE  (19 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College will be shown as the No. 2 seed tomorrow … Virginia jumped ahead of Maryland in the RPI and appears destined for a top six seed, while the Terrapins are looking to be seeded sixth or seventh.

Yale saw its RPI move up to No. 8 after beating Penn in the Ivy League semifinals. The Bulldogs can solidify their case for a seed by beating Princeton in the final … Johns Hopkins slides to 9th in the RPI and appears it might miss out on hosting rights … Stanford is down to No. 10 in the RPI with two massive wins (Virginia, Yale) and a pair of mediocre losses (Army, Denver).

Penn lost in the Ivy League semifinals, but it has three top-15 wins and the 12th-highest RPI … Syracuse will likely be traveling to Princeton, Maryland or Yale as of now …Navy appears to have locked in that at-large berth by beating Army and owning a top-15 RPI … Clemson seems safe at No. 16 in the RPI and significant wins over Syracuse and Duke to offset a loss to Mercer.

Michigan might be closer to the bubble than it would like, even with two top-12 wins over Hopkins and Penn … Duke (RPI No. 20) is on the bubble but safe, as it doesn’t have a bad loss on its resume.

Dartmouth is an RPI darling (21st), but finishing seventh in the Ivy League shouldn’t cut it for inclusion in the NCAA tournament … Army will be sweating it out tomorrow night after Thursday’s loss to Navy … Drexel must beat Stony Brook, as it doesn’t have a win over an NCAA tournament team.

Virginia Tech (9-9) has crept into the at-large discussion with an RPI of 24 and a win over Syracuse, but a loss to High Point and a 1-8 record against the RPI top-20 is tough to overcome … Harvard is among the first batch of teams to be left out because of a trio of losses to non-tournament teams and not qualifying for the Ivy League tournament …

Brown has one of the most difficult resumes to parse — its low RPI (26) is belied by a good SOS (13), a major win (Yale) with only one “bad” loss (Cornell), and a bevy of close calls. But the bubble is really weak with a lack of teams with good profiles, so the Bears stay in for now … Colorado’s hopes were dashed in the Big 12 semifinals by Arizona State.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Navy vs. Clemson
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

New Haven, Conn.

Bryant (AMERICA EAST) at (8) Yale
Johns Hopkins vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Florida (BIG 12)
Stanford vs. Denver (BIG EAST)

Charlottesville, Va.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Virginia
James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Army

Newton, Mass.

Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Brown
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

College Park, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (7) Maryland
Penn vs. Liberty (ASUN)

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Duke
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern

Princeton, N.J.

LIU (NEC) at (6) Princeton (IVY)
Syracuse vs. Stony Brook (CAA)

Last Four In: Clemson, Duke, Army, Brown
First Four Out: Harvard, Dartmouth, Virginia Tech, Drexel
Moving In: Fairfield, Liberty
Moving Out: Jacksonville, Mount St. Mary’s
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (4), Patriot League (3)