NCAA Bracketology: The Consequences of Bad Losses

The stretch run to the NCAA tournament is here on the eve of the Big Ten and ACC tournaments. It might seem early for bid thievery, but it has already arrived with a major shuffle on the bubble.

A reshaped bubble picture

Numerous results have altered the bubble outlook:

• Rutgers beat Michigan to lock up its at-large bid
• Penn State beat Rutgers to defray worry about theirs
• Loyola’s shocking loss to Holy Cross
• Virginia took out Boston College and Virginia Tech to regain tournament eligibility
• James Madison’s four-game winning streak (with wins over Richmond and Georgetown)

The fallout is that James Madison shot up to 17th in the RPI, Virginia took a spot off the board as one of the final at-large teams, Loyola plummeted to 25th in the RPI and the Ivy League might be a one-bid conference.

Ten at-large candidates are rated between 15th (Clemson) and 28th (Villanova), fighting for five spots, which means decisions are going to be exceptionally tight. Some teams are closer to locks (Rutgers, Clemson) due to a mix of significant wins and avoiding damaging losses, while the group of JMU, Virginia, Notre Dame, Loyola and Princeton offer a mix of solid RPI, solid victories, and in some cases, significant losses.

Teams like Penn, Georgetown and Villanova are at the bottom of that curve and need a combination of exceptional wins, a boost to RPI and some help above.

The degrees of significant losses will be evident: Penn, Loyola and Duke all lost to teams with RPIs above 45 — and all three are outside looking in today.

In a season of chaos, the upcoming conference tournaments will feature literal elimination games, which means much shuffling is to come over the next 12 days.

The ACC Thunderdome

The ACC alone will have juicy matchups of what will likely be “must-win” situations:

• Virginia must beat Syracuse, which ensures the Cavs are .500 or better on Selection Sunday
• The Clemson-Notre Dame matchup pits two bubble teams against each other
• For 30 minutes against UNC, Duke looked like it was going to provide another shock in a season full of them. The Blue Devils are a bid thief if they pull off the lunchtime upset
• Stanford’s slim seed hopes rest on getting past BC and making a run to the ACC title

What’s on the line in the Big Ten

The league with the biggest upside this season has been the Big Ten as it looks to send its highest number of teams to the NCAA tournament (six), while earning its highest number of seeds (four).

For Northwestern, it’s to achieve the overall top seed. Anything but hoisting the trophy inside U-M Lacrosse Stadium Sunday afternoon will drop the Wildcats from No. 1 status.

For Maryland, Johns Hopkins and Michigan, it’s about maintaining and improving their spots as seeded teams.

That means Michigan will try to fend off a Penn State team that could use extra assurance of its at-large bid in the opening quarterfinal. The Terrapins will need to slide by a desperate Ohio State team who is well outside the bubble, and if Hopkins wants to be in the top four conversation, it needs to beat Rutgers.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, April 19), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Northwestern owns the top RPI and SOS on the back of a nation-leading nine victories against top 20 foes, five of which are against the top seven in the RPI … North Carolina survived a first-half scare against Duke and gets a rematch against its rival in an ACC tournament the Tar Heels are favored to win … Stony Brook rose in the RPI (4th) but clings to the bottom half of the projections because it’s the only team in the RPI top seven without a win over a seeded team.

Navy was revealed as the No. 5 seed in the Selection Committee’s top 10 last Thursday when the Mids were No. 4 in the RPI. That rating dropped to eighth after this weekend. Could that portend things to come? … In those same rankings, Florida would have been the first team out of the seeded slots. That’s where the Gators stay for now, needing someone above them to fall … Yale is firmly in first place and are the only Ivy League team in lock status.

South Florida remains the leader of the American and seems to be on a collision course with JMU. The Bulls might have to rely on the auto bid to make its first NCAA tournament appearance … Richmond is in a similar position as USF after dropping a midweek contest to JMU before clinching the A-10 regular season title … Denver heads to the nation’s capital to try and clinch its seventh straight Big East regular-season title when it faces fellow conference unbeaten Georgetown.

Fairfield wrapped up a perfect conference regular season by drubbing Marist. The Stags will have 13 days off before their MAAC semifinal game on May 1 … UMass is 60 minutes away from completing its perfect run through the MAC when it faces Kent State … Delaware is another team in a new conference that’s trying to cap off an unbeaten string. Last up is Liberty tomorrow.

UAlbany was run off the field by Vermont, 14-4, in its regular season finale. The Great Danes remain the America East AQ for now, but that tournament seems wide open now … Mercer won its two conference games 41-4 to move to 6-0 in Big South play … Stonehill is a debutant to the proceedings, as the Skyhawks beat LIU to move into a tie for first in the NEC.

AT LARGE  (23 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Maryland didn’t hold onto its top perch long and must return to Ann Arbor for the Big Ten tournament. If the Terps reach the final. they could avenge one of their two losses … Johns Hopkins was part of the chaos last week, never leading in its game against Penn State until the OT winner. The Blue Jays have a top five profile … Syracuse just can’t solve Boston College, and now the Orange must contend with a hungry Virginia team whose season is on the line Wednesday.

Michigan toppled Maryland for the first time in program history and with it might have sewed up its seeded spot. The Wolverines own the second-most wins over RPI top 20 teams (6) … Colorado has won four straight after its close loss at Florida and can lock up the Big 12’s second seed with a win over Arizona State this week … The Selection Committee’s preview didn’t show Stanford, and that likely puts to rest their seeding prospects without a run to the ACC title.

Army is tied for first in the Patriot League and sits in locked status for NCAA tournament … Penn State earned its sixth win over top 40 competition when it defeated Rutgers. The Nittany Lions are near locks with an RPI of 13 and a strength-of-schedule of 10 … Clemson has a nervy ACC quarterfinal against Notre Dame to navigate. A loss and the Tigers will sweat out Selection Sunday; a win and a bid is likely secured.

Rutgers got the signature win it had been lacking by taking out Michigan. The Scarlet Knights might not need it, but a win in the Big Ten quarterfinals against Hopkins locks up a bid … James Madison received a powerful math boost and now sits 17th in the RPI. The Dukes might still need to win the AQ regardless … Boston College removed any little doubt left about its candidacy by winning at Syracuse. The Eagles will now try to take down Stanford for a second time this season.

Welcome back, Virginia. The Cavaliers are .500 for the first time since March 21 when Syracuse won 6-5. Virginia must beat Syracuse on Wednesday to continue its season … Penn is up to 22nd in the RPI but doesn’t own a top 20 victory yet while sporting a significant loss to Temple … Princeton can run its win streak to four when it hosts Dartmouth, and the Tigers need to. Their RPI keeps dropping despite winning, and the Tigers might need the Ivy AQ at this point.

Loyola’s perplexing loss to Holy Cross might lead to the Greyhounds missing on an NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017 … Notre Dame is once again the final team in the projection, which means a win over Clemson in the ACC quarterfinals is necessary … Georgetown kept pace in the Big East heading into its regular-season title game on Saturday against Denver.

Villanova’s at-large hopes were all but dashed by Georgetown … Duke needs a massive win over North Carolina to get into the at-large discussion … Cornell needs a win over Yale and a Brown loss at Penn to qualify for the Ivy League tournament and keep its season alive … Ohio State must defeat Maryland to continue its season … Pitt earned three top 40 victories, but missed out on the ACC tournament by a single game. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Notre Dame vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

UMass (MAC) at (8) Stony Brook (CAA)
Florida vs. Fairfield (MAAC)

Baltimore, Md.

UAlbany (AMERICA EAST) at (4) Johns Hopkins
Army vs. Virginia

Annapolis, Md.

Delaware (ATLANTIC SUN) at (5) Navy (PATRIOT)
Yale (IVY) vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Stonehill (NEC) at (7) Syracuse
Boston College vs. Rutgers

College Park, Md.

Penn State vs. James Madison
Winner plays at (3) Maryland

Ann Arbor, Mich.

South Florida (AMERICAN) at (6) Michigan
Colorado vs. Stanford

Last Four In: Clemson, James Madison, Virginia, Notre Dame
First Four Out: Loyola, Princeton, Georgetown, Penn
Next Four Out: Villanova, Duke, Pitt, Ohio State

Moving In: James Madison, Stonehill, Virginia
Moving Out: Loyola, LIU, Princeton

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (6), American (2), Big 12 (2), Patriot (2)