NCAA Bracketology: The Final D-I Women's Bracket Projection

With a lack of major upsets during conference tournament week, the outlook for this year’s NCAA tournament has changed substantially. Nevertheless, there are some key questions that need to be answered.

How high will the committee seed the Ivy League teams?

Two highly entertaining Ivy League semifinals were a continuation of the regular season — tight matchups by talented teams. Yale then lifted the trophy by dominating Princeton.

Yale’s victory lifted the Bulldogs to 6th in the RPI, while Princeton held at No. 4. We project the these teams to be seeded 6th and 7th, respectively.

Should Stanford, Hopkins (and maybe JMU) get better looks at seeds?

James Madison, Johns Hopkins and Stanford occupy spots 9-11 in the RPI, and each have solid cases for inclusions as seeds over Maryland (No. 8 in the RPI). The Terrapins’ best wins are over JMU and Hopkins, and that’s where it’s hard to find a path for either of those teams to be seeded.

Stanford’s quality wins over Yale and Virginia are outpaced by losses to Army and Denver, both sub-20 RPI teams. Meanwhile, Hopkins also beat JMU, has a strength of schedule of 5 and its worst loss is to Michigan (RPI No. 19). 

JMU has the key win over Florida and no other wins over a tournament team. It’s difficult to bump Maryland when looking at the data.

Who gets the final at-large spots?

This is a year of relatively weak at-large candidates on the bubble. With the one-bid leagues remaining truly singular bids, the teams on the bubble weren’t whittled like in the past. Let’s examine our candidates.

Duke (RPI 20, SOS 20)

Case for: A solid RPI and SOS plus wins over tournament team Clemson and bubble team Brown.
Case against: The Blue Devils also lost to that Clemson team, but it’s a very average profile (1-5 against the RPI top 20).
Verdict: In

Army (RPI 21, SOS 48)

Case for: Two quality wins over Stanford and Navy, a 4-3 record against the RPI top 40.
Case against: A low SOS, a loss to non-tournament team Colorado and possible injury questions.
Verdict: In

Dartmouth (RPI 22, SOS 22)

Case for: A solid RPI and SOS, a win over A-10 champion UMass and fellow bubble team Colorado.
Case against: Went 2-5 in the Ivy League to miss the tournament and lost to fellow bubble teams Brown and Harvard.
Verdict: Out

Drexel (RPI 23, SOS 47)

Case for: That 14-4 record is impressive and includes a win over Harvard, MAAC champion Fairfield and the Big Ten’s fourth-place team, Penn State.
Case against: A loss to sub-30 RPI team UConn, losing twice to Stony Brook and nearly the lowest SOS among teams in question.
Verdict: Out

Virginia Tech (RPI 25, SOS 8)

Case for: That win over Syracuse, the 8th-rated SOS.
Case against: A .500 record, a loss to High Point (RPI 55) and seven losses by nine-plus goals.
Verdict: Out

Harvard (RPI 26, SOS 29)

Case for: Wins over two NCAA teams (Penn, Navy) and five total against the RPI top 40.
Case against: Three losses to likely non-tournament teams (Drexel, Cornell, Notre Dame), missing the Ivy League tournament and losing to Brown
Verdict: Out, first team to miss

Brown (RPI 27, SOS 14)

Case for: A win over Yale, head-to-head victory over Harvard, a strong SOS (14th), made the Ivy League tournament and was very competitive even in its losses (Four of six losses by 2 or fewer goals).
Case against: Low RPI, only 1-5 against the RPI top 20 and a loss to non-tourney side Cornell.
Verdict: In, last team

Colorado (RPI 28, SOS 22)

Case for: Wins over CAA champion Stony Brook and bubble team Army.
Case against: Low RPI (28), a 3-8 record against the RPI top 40 including losses to bubble team Dartmouth and non-tournament teams Arizona State and USC.
Verdict: Out

If Brown is included, the Bears will have the fourth-highest RPI for any at-large selection. The past two seasons have seen Duke (RPI 31 in 2024) and Penn State (RPI 32 in 2023) be included, while Louisville got in with an RPI of 31 in 2017 when the field was still 26 teams.

Interestingly enough, no teams rated between 25 and 30 have been included in the NCAA tournament. Four teams with an RPI of 24 were granted at-large bids (2019 Stanford, 2016 Johns Hopkins, 2015 Louisville, 2013 Dartmouth).

Will the committee deviate from its geographic principles?

As it stands, the selection committee could make a bracket with only two flights (Stanford and Denver to Florida). Is this the best option for bracket integrity? Not at all, as it means Akron drives to play Michigan in Evanston and then Florida would likely face Stanford or Denver in the second round.

If the committee is granted the permission to add one or two more flights, the bracket will be more balanced than it’s currently constructed.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (all games included), not human polls. Conference champions are listed as automatic qualifier. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

North Carolina will be well rested whenever it faces its NCAA second-round opponent as the No. 1 seed … Northwestern is in the same camp as UNC, but as the No. 3 seed … Florida fell behind three early against Arizona State but pounded a 19-3 run to claim the Big 12. The Gators should be a top five seed.

Yale had the most impressive weekend by beating a game Penn team and dominating Princeton on the road for the Ivy League title and a presumable seed … James Madison won its first American Athletic Conference tournament trophy. The Dukes will be on the road with a likely destination to Virginia, Maryland or North Carolina … Navy answered any questions about its at-large candidacy by ripping off the Patriot League title.

Stony Brook had to battle a desperate Drexel squad to claim the CAA title. The Seawolves will be sent on the road to one of five possible sites … UMass had no problem beating second-seeded Saint Joseph’s to claim its final Atlantic 10 tournament title, its first since 2021 … Denver made sure to not chance its at-large profile by winning the Big East. The Pios will likely be flying to Florida.

Liberty is in the big dance for the first team in team history by winning the ASUN over defending champion Coastal Carolina … UAlbany, as the No. 3 seed, dispatched top-seeded Bryant in the America East to return to the NCAA tournament after missing out in 2024 … Fairfield made easy work of Iona in the MAAC final and claim the title that eluded them last year.

Mercer doubled up High Point to claim yet another Big South title. The Bears are the only team that can drive to Gainesville, so expect a rematch with Florida … LIU withstood the thunderstorms Saturday night to beat host Stonehill and lift the NEC trophy … Akron is another newcomer to the NCAA tournament, as it beat host Robert Morris in an overtime thriller. The Zips are one of two teams that can drive to Evanston, so expect them to play Michigan on Northwestern’s Martin Stadium.

AT LARGE  (19 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College is the clear No. 2 … Princeton lands in the at-large pile and should be in good shape to host the first two rounds … Virginia has such an interesting case with four top-20 wins including three among the RPI top 10 (Princeton, Maryland and JMU).

Maryland’s RPI fell to 8th, and that’s likely where the Terps wind up as a seed … Johns Hopkins has five wins over the RPI top 20 and no poor losses. Unfortunately, none of those five wins are against teams that will be seeded … Stanford has two great wins (Yale, Virginia), two middling losses (Army, Denver) and its RPI slipped to 11th, likely not good enough to get a seed. Expect the Cardinal to get shipped to Florida to play Denver.

Under the similar circumstances, Penn could have been Yale and in line to host. Instead, the Quakers are likely traveling to Princeton, Yale or Maryland … Syracuse played the toughest schedule this year but has too many losses to host. The Orange can travel to Maryland, Princeton or Yale … Loyola fell in the Patriot League final. The Greyhounds will be one to watch on where they’re sent. Does the committee keep them close to home (Maryland) or ship them farther away (North Carolina or Boston College)?

Clemson might sweat a little bit tonight but should be solidly in. The committee has two choices for the Tigers: drive to Chapel Hill or fly … Michigan will certainly be traveling to Evanston once again … Duke is on the bubble and seems safe. The Blue Devils are likely heading to Virginia or Maryland.

Army is squarely on the bubble, but wins over Stanford and Navy should offset a loss to Colorado … Dartmouth has a nice RPI (22nd) but not enough quality wins to support candidacy … Drexel went 0-3 against the RPI top 20, and no other bubble team has that goose egg … Virginia Tech is buoyed by its win over Syracuse but marred by its loss to High Point.

The cases of Harvard and Brown have been discussed at length. The slight nod still goes to Brown, and if the Bears make the NCAA tournament for the first time, they’re likely going to Boston College or Yale … Colorado will once again be one of the first four teams left out.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Navy (PATRIOT) vs. Clemson
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

College Park, Md.

Liberty (ASUN) at (8) Maryland
Johns Hopkins vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Florida (BIG 12)
Stanford vs. Denver (BIG EAST)

Charlottesville, Va.

LIU (NEC) at (5) Virginia
James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Duke

Newton, Mass.

Loyola vs. Stony Brook (CAA)
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Princeton, N.J.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (7) Princeton
Penn vs. Army

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Akron (MAC)
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern

New Haven, Conn.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (6) Yale (IVY)
Syracuse vs. Brown

Last Four In: Clemson, Duke, Army, Brown
First Four Out: Harvard, Drexel, Virginia Tech, Dartmouth
Moving In: Akron, UAlbany
Moving Out: Bryant, Robert Morris
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (4), Patriot League (3)