NCAA Bracketology: The Final Women's Bracket Projection

The games have been played; the computers have spat out their final ratings and now everyone must wait for a committee of coaches and sport administrators to determine the fate of 29 teams. Tough decisions will be made, and some fans will find controversy among them.

The seeding dilemma

The top three are locked in: Northwestern, North Carolina and Maryland are likely to be shown in that order. There is a chance that the committee will put UNC first, but Northwestern’s head-to-head victory and boatload of top-10 wins (a field-leading seven) should offset the three losses.

Navy (18-1, 4-0 vs. RPI top-20 teams) sits fifth in the RPI and should be shown as No. 4 or 5, depending on how the committee rates Johns Hopkins’ pair of top-10 victories.

Seeds 6 through 9 (meaning one team will not host) will be the hardest predict:

Stony Brook (17-2) has the highest RPI (4th) of the group, a win over Colorado and no bad losses.

Syracuse faltered down the stretch and limps in with a 1-5 record against top-20 competition, including two losses to non-seeded squads. While it is one of three teams to defeat Northwestern, Syracuse’s next-best victory is over No. 21 Yale.

Michigan’s case stems from having a winning record against top-10 teams (3-2) while playing the second-toughest schedule in the nation. The eight top-20 wins are the second most in the nation, with three of those coming against Maryland (3rd), Colorado (8th) and Florida (10th). The case against features losses to Yale (20th) and Notre Dame (30th).

Then there’s Colorado.

The Buffs won the Big 12 championship at Florida, avenging a regular-season loss to the Gators. They also carry a vital win over No. 1 Northwestern. Normally, the committee would shy away from a western pod, but including Colorado as a host site over Syracuse only adds one more flight because Denver would be able to drive there.

Additionally, Colorado (13-3) has a better record against top-10 foes than Syracuse, the same top win as the Orange and better victories behind it — Florida (10th), Army (12th) and Denver (13th). Lastly, Colorado’s three losses are all to teams in the top 10, while Syracuse has two losses to teams ranked further down the line.

Will the committee be willing to drop the No. 6 RPI team down to the No. 9 seed? Normally, that’s not likely, but the actual ratings are quite compact. Only .00274 separates No. 6 Syracuse from No. 9 Michigan. For context, .0085 separated No. 14 Clemson from No. 15 James Madison.  

In the end, it’s plausible Michigan gets left out as RPI team No. 9, but Colorado has earned its spot to host.

Trepidation on the bubble

For much of the year, there seemed to be a clear line of who was in and who was out. With James Madison throttling South Florida in the American championship game, there is a reckoning on who gets the final spots in the field.

South Florida (12-5; RPI 17, SOS 38)

Case for: A solid RPI, wins over tournament teams JMU (15th) and Mercer (55th), no losses to anyone below 24th (Richmond). 
Case against: Weak schedule (38th), only 2-5 against top 40 foes, next best win is vs. No. 39 Brown 
Verdict: In, second to last

Rutgers (10-8; RPI 20, SOS 5)

Case for: Significant victory over Michigan, all losses are to teams 16th or better, played fifth hardest schedule 
Case against: Eight losses, only one victory over a tournament team 
Verdict: In

Yale (13-4; RPI 21, SOS 30)

Case for: Wins against tourney teams Michigan and Princeton are highlights 
Case against: Low SOS and dropped two of its last three, including one to non-tournament team Cornell. 
Verdict: In

Loyola (12-7; RPI 23, SOS 11)

Case for: The only team to beat Navy, also beat Princeton 
Case against: Owns arguably the ugliest loss (vs. No. 57 Holy Cross) among the teams under consideration 
Verdict: Out, first team to miss

Richmond (13-4; RPI 25, SOS 53)

Case for: Beat USF and Virginia, won the A-10 regular season title 
Case against: A weak SOS and four losses that stand out: James Madison (15th), Penn State (18th), Duke (32nd) and Davidson (39th). If one of the JMU, PSU or Duke results go the other way, there’s a solid case for the Spiders to be included. 
Verdict: Out, second to miss

Cornell (9-6; RPI 27, SOS 34)

Case for: A pair of wins over tournament teams (JMU and Yale) 
Case against: A pair of losses to non-tournament teams (Penn and Brown), which meant missing out on the Ivy League tournament, as well as missed opportunities vs. Penn State and Syracuse 
Verdict: Out

Georgetown (12-6; RPI 28, SOS 28)

Case for: A massive win over Johns Hopkins 
Case against: Losses to bubble team Loyola, another to Penn plus missed opportunities against Denver (twice) and James Madison 
Verdict: Out

Notre Dame (12-7; RPI 30, SOS 31)

Case for: Finished tied-fifth in the ACC, had wins over Michigan and Boston College 
Case against: Low RPI, went 2-5 against RPI top 40, a loss to Virginia who missed the tournament, and had a middling non-conference schedule 
Verdict: In, final team in

If Notre Dame is included, the Fighting Irish will be the fourth-highest RPI at-large selection and continue a trend of lower RPI teams with significant victories making the field, joining:

• 2023 Penn State, 31
• 2024 Duke, 31
• 2025 Brown, 27

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, May 3), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Expect Northwestern to be the No. 1 seed with the most wins against top-five teams (four), top-10 teams (seven) and top-20 teams (11) … North Carolina is slotted as the No. 2 team, although there is an argument for being No. 1 … Stony Brook was a double winner Saturday. It retained the CAA trophy, and its best win (Colorado) captured the Big 12.

Navy (18-1) finished strong, won the Patriot League and sits at No. 5 in the RPI, worthy of a top-five seed … Colorado has a sneaky good profile with four wins over top-15 teams, including Northwestern and Florida. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Buffs hosting … Denver never faltered against the Big East and didn’t need to learn how its at-large profile would be examined. If Colorado gets into the seeding, the Pioneers are going to Boulder.

James Madison won the American in emphatic fashion over South Florida. The Dukes have flexibility for the committee and can drive to four sites (UNC, Maryland, Navy and Hopkins) …  

Princeton was on the bubble until it captured the Ivy’s automatic bid … Fairfield was never threatened in the MAAC. The Stags can go lots of places, but Stony Brook, Navy or Hopkins seems most obvious.

UMass easily earned the MAC auto bid in its first season … Jacksonville defended home turf by beating Delaware for the ASUN title. The Dolphins will be flying to Evanston, Ann Arbor or possibly Boulder … Davidson will make its first appearance in the NCAA tournament by winning its first A-10 tournament title in any women’s sport. The Wildcats can only drive to Maryland or North Carolina.

UAlbany avenged its regular season loss by taking down Vermont. The Great Danes will be among the bottom three teams in the field … Mercer continues its reign over the Big South. The Bears will either be driving to Chapel Hill or flying to another pod … Stonehill brushed aside top-seeded Le Moyne to claim the NEC championship. The Skyhawks are on the edge of being sent to Johns Hopkins (399), but Stony Brook seems like a more likely landing spot.

AT LARGE  (18 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Maryland will earn the No. 3 seed and host two mid-pack programs … Syracuse saw its RPI drop a spot to sixth, and may fall out of the seed line altogether pending how the committee views its profile compared to Michigan, Stony Brook and Colorado … Johns Hopkins held steady at No. 7 in the RPI. With two top-10 wins, the Blue Jays should earn a top-six seed.

Michigan is an enigma — eight top-20 wins, No. 9 in the RPI due to losses to Yale and Notre Dame, and yet the Wolverines might be as high as the No. 7 seed … Florida couldn’t fend off Colorado. The Gators were always likely flying somewhere anyway, but now that first-round opponent might be a little more difficult … Stanford finally gets its place tonight. If Colorado hosts, expect the Cardinal to fly there, but a trip to Evanston or Ann Arbor is also possible.

Army couldn’t get past Navy in the Patriot League, but the Black Knights are firmly in the field … Clemson will be driving northeast to Chapel Hill this week … South Florida did itself no favors in Saturday’s blowout loss. Although margin of victory isn’t a criteria, the performance won’t be viewed positively. Nevertheless, no eligible team rated higher than 22nd has missed the NCAA tournament as an at-large.

Penn State might be closer to the bubble than some think, but its worst loss was to Princeton and it has two wins over projected tournament teams (Rutgers, UMass) … Boston College’s RPI kept slipping this week, and there might be a case for the Eagles to be on the bubble, as its three worst ACC losses include two to non-tournament teams (Duke, Virginia) — wins over Syracuse, Stanford and Clemson offset those … Rutgers (10-8) would be out if not for that win over Michigan, but a lack of bad losses (Princeton is the worst) keeps the Scarlet Knights in.

Once thought of as a team that could host earlier this year, Yale dropped to 21st in the RPI. Not quite a bubble team, but close enough … Loyola at No. 23 in the RPI might be the first loser due to James Madison’s bid thievery. If the Holy Cross loss negates the Navy victory, what’s left are wins over Princeton, Georgetown and Penn … Richmond scheduled well in non-conference play and even got a win at Virginia. However, some of the losses to JMU, Penn State and Duke needed to be victories to overcome the A-10 tournament setback.

Cornell continues the line of teams with missed opportunities, which features losses to Penn State, Penn and Brown … Georgetown didn’t get it done in Denver and is another team ruing close calls, most notably losses to Loyola and Penn … If Notre Dame gets in, it’s likely at the expense of Loyola, South Florida or Rutgers.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Boston College vs. South Florida
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Boulder, Colo.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) Colorado (BIG 12)
Stanford vs. Denver (BIG EAST)

Annapolis, Md.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (4) Navy (PATRIOT)
Princeton (IVY) vs. Rutgers

Baltimore, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (5) Johns Hopkins
Army vs. Penn State

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Davidson (ATLANTIC 10)
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Jacksonville (ATLANTIC SUN) at (7) Michigan
Florida vs. Notre Dame

College Park, Md.

James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Yale
Winner plays at (3) Maryland

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Stonehill (NEC) at (6) Stony Brook (CAA)
Syracuse vs. UMass (MAC)

Last Four In: Penn State, Rutgers, South Florida, Notre Dame
First Four Out: Loyola, Richmond, Georgetown, Cornell

Moving In: Davidson, Jacksonville, James Madison
Moving Out: Delaware, Loyola, Richmond

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (6), American (2), Big 12 (2), Ivy League (2), Patriot (2)