NCAA Bracketology: No Clear No. 1 Seed

For the second time in three weeks, Northwestern toppled the undefeated No. 1 team in the nation, which now poses the most important question: Who should be the No. 1 seed?

The case for the No. 1 seed

A key phrase that folks will hear on Sunday, May 3, will be “body of work.” In our poll-driven world, Northwestern is top of the heap today. The Wildcats are the hottest team in America and have wins over both the two best one-loss teams, Maryland and North Carolina.

That means the toughest decision is who should be No. 1.

While those two results are outstanding, they might not be enough to get the Wildcats (11-3) ahead because of the significance of their losses (note: multiple losses) is worse than the two teams they’re compared against.

Here’s a profile comparison that will be like what the committee will use.

One more piece the committee will scrutinize is the teams’ records against their 10 best opponents and the quality of those opponents:

• Maryland is 9-1 (avg. opp. ranking: 16.6)
• Northwestern is 7-3 (avg. opp. ranking: 11.4)
• North Carolina is 9-1 (avg. opp. ranking: 21.7)

In the past, the committee has rewarded playing a tough schedule, winning games against teams in contention for seeds and docking teams for losing to opponents well below them.

In this case, Northwestern has the toughest schedule but has two “significant” losses: to RPI No. 12 Colorado and No. 35 Ohio State, whichi is unlikely to make the NCAA tournament.

Another knock on the Wildcats’ No. 1 prospect is in the common opponent category. Both Maryland and North Carolina beat Syracuse, a team that won against Northwestern. And finally, the Tar Heels already beat Ohio State, while Maryland has the Buckeyes next on the schedule.

As a reminder, this is a snapshot of now. Northwestern may very well win the rest of its games and beat Maryland again in the Big Ten tournament.

But for now, the Wildcats move up to No. 3 and slide Syracuse down a peg. Yes, the Orange have a win over the ‘Cats, but that’s their only win over a team in the top 15. Remember that record common opponents category listed above? Northwestern wins that battle, too.

Shuffling of the seeding deck

A bad week by Michigan, a much-needed profile-boosting win by Navy and improved numbers for Johns Hopkins and Stanford organized the bottom four seeds differently.

Hopkins became just the fourth to card at least two wins over RPI top 10 teams by beating the Wolverines. Coupled with a loss to previous bubble dweller Rutgers, Michigan fell six spots in the RPI to No. 8 and out of the projected seed line.

How the committee approaches the profiles of Navy (13-1) and Stony Brook (12-2) will be noteworthy. Navy is rated fourth in the RPI with wins over RPI Nos. 10 (Florida) and 12 (Army), while Stony Brook (RPI No. 6) carries wins over Nos. 12 (Colorado) and 13 (Rutgers). Neither team has wins over seeded teams.

The final spot welcomes back Stanford, edging out Michigan and Florida (RPI No. 10). Stanford gets the edge with its significant victory over Syracuse, while Michigan’s best win is Florida, and the Gators’ best victory is over Colorado.

A clear bubble picture (for now)

Differentiating between the best 14 at-large teams and those not quite good enough is straightforward.

The recipe: solid-to-good RPI (top 30), moderate-to-difficult strength of schedule (top 35), a win over at least one projected NCAA tournament team and avoiding a loss to a team worse than 35th in the RPI.

All 14 teams have met that threshold, including the last four in:

• Princeton (RPI 22, SOS 11; 2 wins over NCAA tourney teams (Rutgers, Penn State))
• Penn State (RPI 14, SOS 16; 2 wins (Richmond, UMass))
• Clemson (RPI 15, SOS 21; 1 win (Notre Dame))
• Notre Dame (RPI 27, SOS 26; 2 wins (Michigan, Boston College))

The first four out do not check all the boxes:

• Villanova (RPI 25, SOS 30; loss to Marquette (45))
• Duke (RPI 29, SOS 22; loss to Pitt (37) and Harvard (56))
• James Madison (RPI 24, SOS 20; No wins over tourney teams; loss to Pitt (37))
• Penn (RPI 26, SOS 23; loss to Temple (50))

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, April 12), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Northwestern has won six straight since its two-game slide knocking off the RPI Nos. 1, 5, 7 and 14 in the process … Navy put away Army in a pivotal Patriot League matchup to maintain its seeding spot and a chance at the league’s regular season title … North Carolina vaulted to fifth in the RPI after dismantling Stanford by nine goals and clinch at least a share of the ACC regular season title.

Stony Brook keeps winning the games in front of it, a win streak now at eight … Florida also has an eight-game winning streak. Will the Gators be tested before a potential Big 12 title game against Colorado? … Denver put a firm grip on the Big East title with an emphatic win at Villanova. A Rocky Mountain showdown with Colorado looms tomorrow.

Yale made sure its spot atop the Ivy League standings wasn’t harmed in a comeback win over Penn … South Florida didn’t quite hang with the Gators but thumped Charlotte to remain undefeated in American play … Richmond has a Tuesday showdown with JMU that could help bolster an at-large bid should something go terribly wrong in the A-10 tournament.

UMass (13-2) has rolled along in the MAC and non-conference play against weak competition. Its SOS has sunk to 86th, second worst in the field … Fairfield (12-3) is another team on an eight-game winning streak heading into the regular-season finale against Marist … Delaware has won nine straight after beginning the year 1-4. The Blue Hens travel to Queens on Thursday.

UAlbany squeaked a one-goal decision against Bryant to clinch at least a share of the America East title with one to play … Mercer (7-6) is in full control of the Big South with four to go, three of which are on the road … LIU beat previously unbeaten Le Moyne to lift into a tie for first place in the NEC. Saturday’s showdown with Stonehill will likely determine the No. 1 seed in the NEC playoffs.

AT LARGE  (22 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Maryland sports a nation’s best .910 winning percentage against the RPI top 40 (10-1) … Syracuse continues its tightrope walk during its 12-game run — six of its last seven have been by two goals or less … Johns Hopkins can lock up the Big Ten’s three seed, and a national seed at that, with a win at Penn State on Thursday.

Michigan could very well enter the Big Ten tournament on a four-game losing streak if it can’t upset either Maryland or Northwestern this week … Stanford gets some respite at home versus Cal before returning to Carolina for the ACC tournament next week … Army’s slim seeding hopes were all but dashed at Navy.

Speaking of seeding hopes, if Colorado is to have any, the Buffaloes must beat Denver on Wednesday … Rutgers likely locked up its at-large bid by knocking off Michigan … A split this week against Johns Hopkins and Rutgers is probably enough for Penn State to secure its at-large bid, but two losses would mean a three-game skid entering the Big Ten tournament.

Clemson has a nine-game winning streak yet remains on the bubble due a lack of significant wins — none against the RPI top 20 and only one against the top 25 (Notre Dame) … Loyola is two wins away from clinching a share of the Patriot League regular season title … After three straight wins over tournament teams, Boston College gave up 17 goals in a loss to Virginia. Can the Eagles solve the Orange on Thursday?

Princeton (6-6) remains just eligible. The Tigers need to go 2-1 in their final three to stay that way … James Madison needs a win against Richmond to keep its at-large chances alive, otherwise it is onto the American tournament for the AQ … Villanova is running out of time to get off the bubble. A win against Georgetown on Saturday is a must.

Penn is in win-out mode, and even then, it will likely have to rely on the AQ … Notre Dame now has no margin of error after the heartbreaker in the Dome. The Irish must beat Louisville and would do well to win their ACC quarterfinal game next week at minimum … Duke was throttled by 12 at Clemson, all but ensuring a missed NCAA tournament at this point.

Cornell has a sneaky chance to make an at-large push because it has Penn and Yale at home remaining … Georgetown must beat Villanova if it wants to keep its at-large hopes going … Ohio State eked out a double-OT win at USC to avoid its fifth loss in six games … Pitt has enjoyed its best season, but it can’t qualify for the ACC tournament.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

College Park, Md.

Loyola vs. Princeton
Winner plays at (1) Maryland

Stanford, Calif.

South Florida (AMERICAN) at (8) Stanford
Florida (BIG 12) vs. Denver (BIG EAST)

Syracuse, N.Y.

LIU (NEC) at (4) Syracuse
Rutgers vs. Boston College

Baltimore, Md.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (5) Johns Hopkins
Yale (IVY) vs. Penn State

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

UMass (MAC) at (7) Stony Brook (CAA)
Army vs. Delaware (ATLANTIC SUN)

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Notre Dame
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Annapolis, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (6) Navy (PATRIOT)
Colorado vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)

Last Four In: Princeton, Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame
First Four Out: Villanova, Duke, James Madison, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Penn, Pitt, Ohio State, Cornell

Moving In: Rutgers
Moving Out: Georgetown

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Ivy (2)