NCAA Bracketology: Unique Opportunities Await

The 2026 season has produced exciting finishes, surprising upsets and plenty of intrigue. Now conference tournament week has arrived, and with it a chance for historic selections (and snubs) for this year’s NCAA tournament field. Here’s what to know and what to expect.

Static seeding might continue

With the two strongest conferences already crowning champions and owning six of eight seeds, there won’t be much change the rest of the way.

Northwestern, North Carolina, Maryland, Johns Hopkins, Syracuse and Michigan seem poised to occupy those six spots. That leaves just Navy (16-1) and Stony Brook (15-2) still playing this week.

Without a loss by either team, it will be incredibly difficult for Florida (14-2) or Colorado (12-3) to crack the top eight. More importantly, how will the committee parse the profile of the Mids or Seawolves when neither have a victory over another seeded team?

Will Notre Dame make the field?

One debate that wasn’t solved last week is whether Notre Dame deserves a spot in the field. The Fighting Irish fell in the ACC semifinals and saw their RPI drop to 29th, an almost unpickable number.

Nevertheless, Notre Dame has significant victories over Michigan and Boston College to help its cause. The biggest blemish on the resume is a loss to Virginia, whose loss to the Fighting Irish opened the door for another bubble team to make the field and had a downstream effect (more on that later).

As it stands, a 29th-rated Notre Dame would be the fourth-lowest RPI at-large in tournament history behind 2023’s Penn State (32nd), and a pair of ACC teams who were 31st (2024 Duke, 2017 Louisville).

The numbers game

On the flip side of history, the highest-rated teams to miss the tournament since it expanded beyond 26 teams in 2018 were all No. 22:

• 2019 UMass
• 2022 Temple
• 2024 Navy
• 2025 Dartmouth

As of this writing, No. 22 is Loyola. The Greyhounds were beneficiaries of Virginia’s loss and are back in this week’s field, but a different team got knocked down a peg.

Virginia was the most notable victory for James Madison, which was among the last four in last week. Now without that win, coupled with its losses to Pitt (RPI No. 40) and Cornell (RPI No. 26), the Dukes dropped to the first team out. More noteworthy is that the Dukes are currently No. 20 in the RPI and no team that high has missed the NCAA tournament with a winning record since the field expansion in 2018.

Princeton at No. 21 has won four straight to reach its best RPI since the beginning of April and is now projected in the field. Must-win season is here and the Tigers can’t afford another loss to Penn in Friday’s Ivy League semifinals.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, April 26), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Northwestern earned the AQ in thrilling fashion with an overtime win over Maryland, its seventh win over top 10 teams … North Carolina won the ACC’s AQ and has locked in a top-two seed … Stony Brook’s RPI remains high, but it lacks a major victory this year. The Seawolves will be in the bottom half of the seeded ranks should they win the CAA tournament.

Florida hosts the Big 12 tournament and needs to win it to remain in contention for a seed … Navy’s RPI dropped again, now to ninth. The Mids’ win over Florida is the cornerstone of its profile … South Florida was a high riser in the RPI, now up to 14th. The Bulls might get in even without a tournament title in the American.

Denver rightly earned the Big East regular season title by handling Georgetown. The Pioneers might still be in must-win territory regardless … Yale dropped its Ivy League regular season finale at Cornell to fall to 19th in the RPI — not close enough to the bubble, but a loss in the Ivy League semifinals would give the committee pause … Richmond should rely on the Atlantic 10’s auto bid, as any loss would be highly damaging.

Fairfield hosts the MAAC semifinals and finals beginning with sixth-seeded Quinnipiac Friday afternoon … UMass faces host Robert Morris in the MAC semifinals on Thursday morning … Delaware wrapped up a perfect inaugural Atlantic Sun campaign but must travel to Jacksonville for the ASUN tournament.

Three teams tied for 5-1 in the America East. While Vermont has the No. 1 seed, UAlbany has the highest RPI. The Great Danes must get by the Bryant Bulldogs Friday night … Mercer rolled off another perfect Big South regular season to earn hosting rights … Stonehill travels to not-yet-NCAA-tournament eligible Le Moyne for the NEC tournament as the No. 2 seed this weekend.

AT LARGE  (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Maryland got an overtime win and an overtime loss last week. The Terrapins will be the No. 3 seed on Sunday … Johns Hopkins boasts six top-20 wins and a pair of top-10 wins, which should be good enough for a top-five seed … Syracuse will enter the NCAA tournament having dropped two of three games with a 2-5 record against RPI top-20 teams.

Michigan enters Selection Sunday having dropped four of six, but the Wolverines have the second-most victories over RPI top-20 teams (eight) … Colorado has a chance to get into a hosting slot if it can win the Big 12 championship; otherwise, it will be on the road against possibly Stanford. The Cardinal made a run to the ACC semifinals, but a damaging loss at Villanova in March will keep them from hosting.

Clemson (14-5) beat Notre Dame to make the ACC semifinals and rose to No. 12 in the RPI. The Tigers lack a win over anyone above 23rd and also lack a loss to anyone below 19th. The cover-your-eyes non-conference SOS of 68th is hard to ignore … Army’s performance in the Patriot League tournament could have major implications up and down the field. If the Black Knights win the title, they might knock Loyola out of an at-large spot and prevent Navy from earning a seed … Penn State dropped yet another heartbreaker in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but an RPI of 15 (including 11th in non-conference play) coupled with lacking a bad loss should be enough.

Rutgers (10-8) might earn an at-large spot with the most losses this year. The Scarlet Knights sit at 16th in the RPI … Boston College is at 18th in the RPI with a 9-7 record. The good wins against Syracuse, Stanford, Clemson and Loyola are diminished slightly by losses to Virginia, Duke and Notre Dame … James Madison was not helped by the numbers last week. The best wins (Virginia, Richmond and Georgetown) all dropped in RPI, and its most significant loss, Pitt, dropped, too. Plus, an earlier loss to Cornell, which didn’t qualify for the Ivy League tournament, doesn’t help either.

Princeton has jumped back into the field for now. A win against Penn would likely sew up an at-large bid … Loyola must beat Army to feel secure about its place in the field; otherwise, it will be a very nervous Selection Sunday ... Penn’s margin for error is gone after a loss to Brown. The Quakers are in a must-win situation against Princeton, and probably would have to win the Ivy League to get in.

Cornell’s biggest win of the season was necessary to keep its season alive — until Brown notched a somewhat surprising win at Penn the next day. Despite rising to No. 26 in the RPI, Cornell will not hear its name called on Sunday … Georgetown’s at-large chances were all but dashed in its loss to Denver … Notre Dame (12-5) remains in an uncomfortable position due to its low RPI (29th) and a non-conference SOS of 37. That season-opening win against Michigan might be enough.

Duke ended the season with back-to-back losses to its biggest rival … Villanova must win the Big East tournament as its path to the NCAA tournament. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Notre Dame
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Delaware (ATLANTIC SUN) at (8) Stony Brook (CAA)
Florida vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)

Baltimore, Md.

UAlbany (AMERICA EAST) at (4) Johns Hopkins
Boston College vs. Rutgers

Annapolis, Md.

UMass (MAC) at (5) Navy (PATRIOT)
Yale (IVY) vs. Loyola

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Stonehill (NEC) at (7) Syracuse
Army vs. Fairfield (MAAC)

College Park, Md.

Penn State vs. Princeton
Winner plays at (3) Maryland

Ann Arbor, Mich.

South Florida (AMERICAN) at (6) Michigan
Colorado vs. Stanford

Last Four In: Rutgers, Princeton, Notre Dame, Loyola
First Four Out: James Madison, Georgetown, Penn, Cornell
Next Two Out: Villanova, Duke

Moving In: Loyola, Princeton
Moving Out: Virginia, James Madison

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Ivy League (2)