NCAA Bracketology: Is This a Weak Bubble?

Will this year’s bubble be among the weakest we’ve seen? What will the committee do if it has three unbeaten teams? Those are two fun questions to answer less than six weeks from Selection Sunday.

Making sense of a cloudy bubble picture

The committee will get some work figuring out who has earned their spot in this year’s field. A weak bubble has appeared as few teams have signature wins, or ones that do also carry damaging losses. And then there’s a team that can’t even be projected in the field due to a losing record.

Meet Virginia (5-6), which has suffered four losses by two goals or less. The Cavaliers have resume-building wins over Notre Dame and Princeton, but they must go 4-1 to end the regular season or finish 3-2 with a win in the ACC quarterfinals just to be eligible.

The Cavs’ exclusion is the gain of another — this week, that’s Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are riding a high RPI (11th) and a win over Ohio State, the first team out. Other teams benefiting from Virginia’s woes are Notre Dame and Clemson, which are a part of an ACC mid-pack that can’t sort itself out yet.

It’s still early, but already four bubble teams projected in the tournament carry losses to teams who won’t make the field of 29. Expect that number to grow, and the decisions to be more difficult.

Steady seeds begin to show a pattern

In the early going, there is a cohort of five teams who appear just above the rest — and three of them could finish the regular season unbeaten.

Maryland (10-0), Navy (10-0) and one of the ACC contenders, North Carolina (9-0) or Stanford (10-0), can run the table. What would the committee do if that happens?

It would be reasonable that strength of schedule will win out, which should favor Maryland, which is scheduled to play teams rated 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th and 13th in the RPI. The Terrapins have an opportunity to rack up more quality wins than the others, and with the ACC presenting fewer high-quality win opportunities for UNC and Stanford (which play each other), the committee could have a different, difficult task ahead.

Syracuse rounds out the top five after its win over Yale last week. Johns Hopkins (RPI 6, SOS 4) has a strong profile to be seeded, while the bottom two slots will be hotly contested.

Teams like Colorado, Michigan, Northwestern, Stony Brook and Yale all have cases. Higher RPI and quantity of victories over tournament teams gets Michigan (4 wins) and Stony Brook (3) past the others (Colorado and Northwestern each have two, Yale just one).

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, March 23), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Stanford has a tricky road trip this week at Boston College and Villanova to navigate … Maryland can make its case for the overall No. 1 seed by beating Johns Hopkins and Penn State this week … Navy survived a scare from Arizona State before a weekend thrashing of Lehigh.

Stony Brook has won four straight as it continues its romp through CAA competition … Colorado eases into Big 12 play at home to San Diego State before traveling to Florida next week … Yale’s chances at a seed took a hit in a one-goal loss to Syracuse, dropping its RPI to 14 — sweeping Princeton and Army this week would get the Bulldogs back on track.

Richmond easily dispatched Saint Joseph’s, one of the few A-10 teams thought to be able to hang with the Spiders … South Florida enters the projections for the first time after the Bulls took out defending American champs James Madison … Denver is a team to keep an eye on. The Pios travel to Michigan, and an upset could spring them into the seeded discussion.

Jacksonville remains the ASUN’s leader ahead of its mid-week game at new conference foe Delaware … Fairfield opened MAAC play with an 11-7 win over Siena (RPI No. 50), the closest rated team to the Stags (35th) … UMass has outscored its MAC competition 43-4 in two games. Expect more of the same this spring.

UAlbany is a breezy 2-0 in America East play ahead of a Tuesday home tilt with Syracuse … Winthrop is the Big South representative before the conference lid-lifter against High Point … LIU gets the NEC nod in lieu of Le Moyne, which is ineligible due to transitioning from Division II. 

AT LARGE  (21 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse has beaten everyone it’s supposed to except the three best teams in the nation: North Carolina, Stanford and Maryland … Johns Hopkins already has eight wins over top 40 teams … Michigan is 4-1 against the top 20.

North Carolina’s RPI has dropped to 8th on the back of a weaker-than-usual strength-of-schedule (27th) — expect both numbers to improve after Wednesday’s game against Northwestern … Penn State has dropped back-to-back games after a 9-0 start … Rutgers got a needed win over the Buckeyes. A sweep of USC and San Diego State is necessary to keep its at-large hopes going.

Florida held off Dartmouth by three in a closer-than-expected non-conference game … Northwestern snapped its two game-skid in a blowout at Oregon. A big test awaits at UNC … Loyola should take care of American to set up a crucial rivalry game at home against Navy.

Princeton looks to win three straight as it hosts Ivy League-favorite Yale on Saturday … Army has won four straight, all by four or more goals, entering Friday’s game with Lafayette … Georgetown rose nine spots in the RPI and sits just inside the bubble.

Cornell is on a three-game winning streak and needs more wins to get into the field. Next up is Dartmouth on Saturday … USC is sliding out of the picture quickly. The Women of Troy are 6-6 and have lost four straight to open Big Ten play … If the Big East is to have three teams make the NCAA tournament, it’ll need Villanova to pull an upset against Stanford this weekend.

Clemson has won five straight, and it’s reasonable to think the Tigers will be favored in each game down the stretch, where a loss would be quite damaging to at-large hopes … Brown must make something special happen in Ivy play as the non-conference season was unkind … Notre Dame has alternated wins and losses since Valentine’s Day and are among the final four teams in the field.

Duke suffered the most damaging defeat of any bubble team in a 14-12 home loss to Harvard (RPI 61) and are on the outside looking in … Ohio State was unable to build momentum after the win over Northwestern and is now 1-2 in Big Ten play … Boston College (5-5, 4-3 ACC) has risen nine spots in the RPI but will need to go 3-2 down the stretch against most likely NCAA tournament teams just to be eligible. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Winthrop (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

UMass (MAC) at (8) Stony Brook (CAA)
Yale (IVY) vs. USF (AMERICAN)

Annapolis, Md.

LIU (NEC) at (4) Navy (PATRIOT)
Colorado (BIG 12) vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)

Syracuse, N.Y.

UAlbany (AMERICA EAST) at (5) Syracuse
Army vs. Georgetown

Stanford, Calif.

Florida vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Winner plays at (2) Stanford

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Jacksonville (ASUN) at (7) Michigan
Northwestern vs. Notre Dame

College Park, Md.

Princeton vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (3) Maryland

Baltimore, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (6) Johns Hopkins
Loyola vs. Rutgers

Last Four In: Georgetown, Clemson, Notre Dame, Rutgers
First Four Out: Ohio State, Boston College, Cornell, Duke

Moving In: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Rutgers, USF
Moving Out: Duke, James Madison, Ohio State, Virginia

Multi-bid Conferences: Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Big East (2), Ivy (2)