NCAA Bracketology: Winners and Losers After a Week of Upsets

A week of unexpected results brings tumult to the entirety of this week’s Division I women’s lacrosse bracket projection. The ramifications of said chaos will be felt for the rest of the season both among the seeded ranks and on the cut line.

Biggest winners

Northwestern: The Wildcats propelled themselves firmly into the seeded discussion with an upset win over No. 1 North Carolina and validated it with a win over Johns Hopkins.

Maryland: The Terrapins went 2-0 in conference play by downing Johns Hopkins and fending off a game Penn State team by a single goal. The Terps are the new No. 1 team.

The Big Ten: The league has increased its margin against the other conferences and now has six teams ranked in the top 13 of the RPI. Barring a major stumble by those six teams, it seems like the Big Ten can get six bids.

Villanova: The Wildcats caught Stanford on the back half of a difficult two-game swing. Villanova has a legitimate chance to earn an at-large even if the Big East auto bid falls through.

Boston College: Time was running out on the Eagles (7-5, 5-3 ACC) to snag a significant victory and assure a .500 record for tournament eligibility, and they did it against Stanford.

Biggest losers

Stanford: The undefeated Cardinal dropped a pair of winnable road games and might be on the road come tournament time.  

The ACC: The hits kept coming with non-conference losses to James Madison (Virginia), Northwestern (North Carolina), Vanderbilt (Louisville) and Villanova (Stanford). The league could still get five or six bids into the tournament, but it will be a grind to get there.

Navy: The Mids got blitzed from the onset by Loyola. Their undefeated season is now gone, and there will be serious questions about whether they should be seeded.

Sorting the seeded teams

After No. 1 Maryland, figuring out the next seven teams is quite a challenge because each one carries flaws.

North Carolina is affected by the ACC’s relative downturn and slots in at No. 8 in the RPI and 22nd with strength of schedule. Syracuse has a big win over Northwestern along with losses to Maryland, UNC and Stanford. Northwestern has three top 10 wins (Stony Brook, Hopkins, UNC) but carries losses to a non-seeded team (Colorado) and a non-tourney team (Ohio State).

Michigan is rated second in the RPI but without a win over a fellow seeded team (but no bad losses); Johns Hopkins has the toughest-rated schedule and a win over Stony Brook (RPI No. 3), which is also without a win over a fellow seeded team.

Navy caught the final spot in this week’s projection with an RPI of 6 and just a single loss, while Stanford, Yale, Colorado and Florida are all in position to snag a seed if another team falters or the math works their way.

An ACC bubble party

The bubble scene is populated by three ACC teams: Boston College, Notre Dame and Clemson. The Eagles have risen 17 spots to No. 23 in the RPI and own that crucial win over the Cardinal, while Notre Dame (RPI No. 30) has two wins over probable NCAA teams (Michigan, BC).

Clemson is the first team left out despite a superior RPI and SOS to Notre Dame, plus head-to-head win over the Irish and a better record against common opponents. Here’s the reasoning: Clemson’s best win is over Notre Dame. If the Tigers are included, then there are no wins over NCAA teams on their profile, whereas Notre Dame owns two significant. Without a bad loss, the Irish are in.

Other bubble teams in this week’s field include:

• Princeton (RPI 17, SOS 7)
• Rutgers (RPI 13, SOS 11)
• Penn State (RPI 12, SOS 16)
• Georgetown (RPI 20, SOS 26)

Other bubble teams left out after Clemson:

• Ohio State (RPI 32, SOS 32, significant loss to Pitt)
• Cornell (RPI 22, SOS 42, significant loss to Brown)
• James Madison (RPI 24, SOS 17, loss to Cornell)
• Denver (RPI 27, SOS 33, no significant victories)
• Duke (RPI 34, SOS 26, significant losses to Harvard, Pitt)

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, March 29), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Maryland has set itself up for an undefeated regular season, but tricky matchups await against Rutgers (Saturday), Northwestern (April 9) and at Michigan (April 16) … Stony Brook gets a test at Princeton on Wednesday to pad its seeding resume … Many feared what it would be like to play North Carolina after a loss, and a 20-goal margin against East Carolina was the result.

Florida dodged the bees and the Sun Devils with a Big 12 opening win at Arizona State, up next is Colorado in what could be the decider for the league’s No. 1 seed … Army was the benefactor of Navy’s loss to Loyola and sits atop the Patriot. The Black Knights get Yale today in a key non-conference matchup for seeding hopes for both teams.

Richmond continues its romp through the Atlantic 10 and took care of business against USF in Monday’s non-conference clash … Villanova has a difficult two-game road trip ahead — Thursday at UConn and Saturday at Marquette before next week’s battle with Denver … South Florida is 3-0 in American play but won’t face a league foe until April 11 against Charlotte.

Fairfield is into the top 30 in the RPI after narrow wins over Sacred Heart and Canisius … Delaware is 3-0 in its Atlantic Sun debut season after polishing off preseason favorite Jacksonville and Stetson … UAlbany snuck by Binghamton in overtime to move to 3-0 in America East play.

UMass moved to 3-0 in MAC play with its third straight win by 12-plus goals … Mercer is the Big South’s representative by virtue of a 1-0 record and the highest RPI … Le Moyne is ineligible for the NCAA tournament, so LIU leads a pack of four teams at 3-1 in the NEC this week.  

AT LARGE  (21 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Michigan is 7-2 against the RPI top 40 and has won six straight heading into a Thursday night rivalry clash with Ohio State … Syracuse is on a nine-game winning streak before road games at Cornell and Duke … Northwestern continues to rack up goals (16.5 per game) and should do similar damage when it hosts USC this weekend.

Navy has a chance to get right against Boston University before its rivalry game against Army on April 11 … Johns Hopkins had its six-game run broken by Maryland and Northwestern … Stanford will try to regain its mojo by hosting Louisville.

Colorado, winner of three straight, heads to Florida on Saturday for the most important Big 12 game of the year … Penn State has lost three straight and could use a win at Ohio State on Sunday to avoid talk of falling off the bubble … Rutgers has won three in a row, all on the road, going into Saturday’s game at No. 1 Maryland.

Loyola is one of eight teams that has three or more wins against the RPI top 20 … Princeton (4-4, 1-1 Ivy) couldn’t get things going against Yale and now has tough tasks ahead against Stony Brook (Wednesday), Cornell (Saturday) and Penn (April 8) ... Georgetown dispatched UConn with ease (18-7) to move to 2-0 in Big East play. 

Cornell has quietly built a solid resume thanks to a four-game winning streak. The Big Red get a big test this week against Syracuse and Princeton … Boston College has three difficult regular season games left — Loyola, Virginia and Syracuse. Two wins likely sew up an at-large bid … James Madison must keep its winning ways against Pitt and Charlotte to maintain a chance at an at-large bid. 

Clemson’s relatively weak non-conference schedule is going to hurt its profile in a year when the ACC isn’t as strong as usual. Nevertheless, the remaining schedule is quite manageable (Davidson, Cal, Duke and Florida State) … Denver’s best win is over Fairfield. The Pioneers should take care of Marquette tomorrow leading into back-to-back games against Villanova (April 11) and Colorado (April 15) … Notre Dame has won three straight by a combined 50 goals, but an RPI of 30 due to a weak non-conference schedule leaves the Irish vulnerable.

Ohio State needs to pick off wins to get back into the at-large picture. This week features Michigan and Penn State … Glass-half full view for Duke’s end-of-year schedule of Syracuse, Clemson and North Carolina: a victory against any of those three gets the Devils back into the at-large picture … Jacksonville will need to have its eyes set on the Atlantic Sun’s AQ unless it can knock off Colorado on Sunday.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

College Park, Md.

Princeton vs. Rutgers
Winner plays at (1) Maryland

Annapolis, Md.

UMass (MAC) at (8) Navy
Yale (IVY) vs. Delaware (Atlantic Sun)

Evanston, Ill.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Northwestern
Stanford vs. Colorado

Ann Arbor, Mich.

South Florida (AMERICAN) at (5) Michigan
Florida (BIG 12) vs. Notre Dame

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Loyola vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (8) Stony Brook (CAA)
Villanova (BIG EAST) vs. Fairfield (MAAC)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Penn State vs. Boston College
Winner plays at (3) Syracuse

Baltimore, Md.

LIU (NEC) at (6) Johns Hopkins
Army (PATRIOT) vs. Georgetown

Last Four In: Penn State, Boston College, Georgetown, Notre Dame
First Four Out: Clemson, Ohio State, Cornell, James Madison
Next Four Out: Denver, Duke, Jacksonville, VCU

Moving In: Boston College, Mercer, Villanova
Moving Out: Clemson, Denver, Winthrop

Multi-bid Conferences: Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Patriot (3), Big 12 (2), Big East (2), Ivy (2)