NCAA Bracketology: Boston U, Michigan Miss Field After Thursday's Semis

Matthew Colagiovanni has a decent idea of what’s in front of him this weekend.

The Rutgers deputy athletic director is the chair of the NCAA men’s lacrosse committee for the second consecutive year. And while he doesn’t know what the actual results will be, he has a good idea of the process awaiting him and the other four committee members.

“I would say it’s definitely a benefit knowing what’s needed,” Colagiovanni said. “The criteria is staying the same as last year, which is helpful. And just listening to the [regional advisory committee], which has been really good for us. We really did a deeper dive with them, a lot of them questions, taking their input and what they view from their end, especially with one in each conference, it’s helpful for us.”

As something of a veteran of the process — he is the first person to serve two years as the committee chair since former Fairfield athletic director Gene Doris in 2016-17 — he had some quick answers for a few predictable questions.

Yes, the committee is going to make every attempt to send the two play-in winners to Sunday first-round games. That’s generally been the case since the Wednesday opening-round games were added in 2014. (Towson’s trip to Notre Dame on Saturday in 2015 was an exception.) The Northeast Conference’s return to the sport means there are two play-in games, so look for the top two seeds to get Sunday games.

No, the committee is not completely ruled by the NCAA’s guidance to limit the number of teams flying to two in the first round. Sometimes geography forces the group’s hand, like last year when Michigan went to Denver, Utah visited Duke and play-in winner UAlbany played at Notre Dame. But to some extent, the bracket’s competitive integrity — “what’s best for the sport,” Colagiovanni said — plays a role, too.

The committee, which also includes Nick Gannon (Drexel deputy AD), Danie Daluisio, (Ohio State assistant AD), Randy Mearns (former St. Bonaventure coach) and Kip Turner (Virginia assistant coach), also has the usual selection and seeding responsibilities.

There isn’t as large a pool of credible at-large teams as there typically is, and the committee’s task could be made much easier if no bid-snatchers emerge from the Ivy League (Yale) or Patriot League (anyone but Army). The Big Ten’s last chaos agent, Rutgers, was eliminated by Ohio State in the conference semifinals on Thursday.

“I think we just have to see how this plays out the next few days,” Colagiovanni said. “As you know, we play these tournaments and you don’t know where it’s going to end. We think we may have a format today and you kind of walk in the room and go, ‘Wow, we had one or two bid stealers.’”

One other thing to keep an eye on is how many regular-season rematches are set up in the first round. Eliminating them altogether is no easy feat; the 2022 (Cornell-Ohio State and Princeton-Boston University), 2023 (Virginia-Richmond) and 2024 (Maryland-Princeton) first rounds each had at least one.

“I think we’re going to do everything we can to avoid it unless it’s just something we can’t,” Colagiovanni said. “But it’s definitely something as we’re going through the teams that we are looking at and seeing if it’s the best option or if there’s a different option. It’s definitely a factor we’ll look to.”

On to the breakdown, with updated data courtesy of Lacrosse Reference.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Cornell can dismiss the Ivy League’s lone potential bid thief when it plays Yale in Friday’s semifinals. The Big Red won the regular-season meeting 19-14 in New Haven on March 22. … If there was even a narrow way for Ohio State to get left out coming into the week, it’s gone now. The Buckeyes’ victory over Rutgers in the Big Ten semifinals means they’re playing for seeding against Maryland in the final. …

Richmond didn’t mess around in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, scoring the first seven goals (in barely more than 12 minutes) on the way to a 14-4 drubbing of UMass. The Spiders will face High Point for the A-10’s automatic bid on Saturday. … Army opens Patriot League tournament play Friday against Colgate (8-7), which won at Lehigh in Tuesday’s quarterfinals. The Black Knights earned a 13-7 victory over Colgate on April 5 as part of their current five-game winning streak. …

Georgetown moved within a victory of its seventh consecutive Big East tournament title, crushing Marquette 19-8. The Hoyas will face Villanova in Saturday’s championship game.  … Towson survived a 19-save barrage from Hofstra redshirt freshman Shea Kennedy, squeaking into the CAA final on Bode Maurer’s overtime game-winner. The Tigers will go for their second league title in a row when they face Drexel on Saturday.

Sacred Heart will also go for back-to-back NCAA berths after ripping Quinnipiac 18-11. The top-seeded Pioneers face Siena in the Metro Atlantic final.  … Robert Morris had one of Thursday’s most riveting victories, forcing overtime on a goal with 0.1 seconds left and then quickly finishing off LIU in the extra session to reach the NEC final. The Colonials meet Detroit, a 6-3 winner over top-seeded Le Moyne. …

Bryant was another overtime winner Thursday, getting by Binghamton 10-9. The Bulldogs will play host to UAlbany on Saturday as they seek their second America East title in three years. … Whoever wins the Atlantic Sun will wind up in a play-in game. In addition to Utah, the other teams in Friday’s semifinals are Jacksonville (38th in the RPI), Air Force (45th) and Bellarmine (57th).

AT LARGE  (10 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

With its 10-8 defeat of Penn State, go ahead and scribble in a top-two seed for Maryland. The only team with a realistic chance to deny the Terrapins the top seed is Cornell. … Princeton opens Ivy League tournament play Friday evening against Harvard. The Tigers won the first meeting 13-11 on March 22. …

Penn State is probably going to land somewhere between the No. 4 and No. 7 seed after its Big Ten semifinal loss to Maryland. … North Carolina is aiming to defeat Duke twice in a season for the first time since 1993 when the teams meet in Friday’s ACC semifinals. The Tar Heels can also secure their first three-game winning streak against the Blue Devils since 2002-04. …

Notre Dame has won three in a row since its 14-9 loss at Syracuse on April 5. A victory in the rematch in the ACC semifinals should solidly lock the Fighting Irish into a first-round NCAA home game. … Duke’s at-large hopes, already in good shape, improved even more with Rutgers’ loss in the Big Ten tournament. …

A victory over Princeton would make it difficult to dislodge Harvard from the field and give the Crimson a chance to host a first-round home game. A loss to the Tigers probably means Harvard goes on the road if it gets into the field. …

Syracuse sure could use its first victory in any round of the ACC tournament since 2016. Granted, no ACC tournaments were played from 2020-23, but beating Notre Dame a second time would make the Orange less vulnerable to bid snatchers squeezing the field and would keep it in play to host a first-round game. …

Boston U faces Lafayette in Friday’s Patriot League semifinals. It’s a rematch of the Terriers’ most recent loss, an 11-9 setback on April 12. …  A result that makes sorting out the final at-large spot less tricky than it otherwise might have been is Harvard’s 14-11 defeat of Michigan on March 8. If the Wolverines had that head-to-head triumph, they would have had a credible case over the Crimson. Instead, Michigan is likely to be the first or second team just outside the field.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner
(8) Duke vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.

(5) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond
(4) Notre Dame vs. COASTAL/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(6) Penn State vs. Syracuse

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. Harvard
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Bryant winner

Last three included: Duke, Harvard, Syracuse
First two on the outside: Michigan, Boston U
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)