NCAA Bracketology: Cornell Alters Outlook After Princeton Victory

Over the years, different NCAA lacrosse committees have emphasized various criteria to distinguish how teams should be seeded and selected. Sometimes, it’s a matter of preference. Sometimes, it’s just that specific data points do a better job of differentiating teams.

But one principle usually holds up: What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

That’s just a colloquial way of saying if something is going to be used against one team (for instance, the presence of a bad loss), it should be held against another team with the same shortcoming in the same year. Alternatively, the same idea can be used to bolster teams when they share a good trait (for example, top-10 victories).

This week’s bracket projection utilizes this idea with two undefeated teams with strength of schedule issues relative to the teams they would get compared to if the season ended today.

Duke (8-0) ranks eighth in the RPI but 26th in strength of schedule and has yet to face a top-10 team. Cornell (5-2) is ninth in the RPI but is eighth in strength of schedule and has split its two games against top-10 teams. Johns Hopkins (6-2) is sixth in both the RPI and strength of schedule but is 0-2 against top-10 teams.

Given the committee’s history, that would be an advantage to Cornell. And thanks to the advantage in metrics, the scales probably tilt toward Hopkins for the last seeded slot, even if it has one top-20 victory (Navy) to Duke’s two (Saint Joseph’s and Denver).

There’s a similar situation near the cutline for the teams staring at a play-in game. Sacred Heart (8-0) not only hasn’t played a top-20 game, it hasn’t faced a top-40 opponent. Its strongest game according to Monday’s RPI release is No. 43 Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Towson is two spots below the Pioneers in the RPI but has a far better strength of schedule (27th to 70th), not to mention a top-20 defeat of Navy.

One thing that’s important to note is that these parallel profiles won’t be an actual issue for the committee, at least with these two teams. Duke’s strength-of-schedule problems are about to vanish; with four ACC games, a neutral-site meeting with Cornell and up to two ACC tournament contests, the Blue Devils’ actual results will dictate their fate.

As for Sacred Heart, it could be an intriguing variable if it runs the table, even though it doesn’t have a current top-40 opponent on its remaining schedule (No. 49 Siena and No. 53 Marist, fellow conference title contenders, have a viable chance of getting there if the Metro Atlantic proves especially top-heavy).

Or it might not matter. An undefeated Pioneers team coupled with some upsets in conference tournaments elsewhere could plausibly give Sacred Heart direct entry to the tournament’s opening weekend.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 23.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Richmond jumped from sixth to first in the RPI after beating a UMass team now ranked 26th, jumping over Syracuse (beat No. 10 Georgetown) and Duke (beat No. 18 Denver). The Spiders are good — like, really  good — but those fluctuations simply scream there isn’t enough data available to actually glean anything from the flawed metric. … Johns Hopkins has the highest RPI of the three Big Ten teams that won conference openers, thus the Blue Jays’ place as the league’s projected automatic qualifier. …

Harvard’s strength of schedule is only going to get better. None of the Crimson’s six remaining regular-season opponents are ranked lower than 28th in the RPI, and four are in the top 15. … Boston University has already defeated Navy, one of the two teams tied with it in the loss column atop the Patriot League. The Terriers visit the other (Loyola) next weekend. …

It’s the opening weekend of Big East play, and Saturday’s Georgetown-Denver winner will become the favorite to be the top seed in the league tournament. No one in the Big East is above .500, though Denver and Marquette are both 4-4. … Sacred Heart’s strength of schedule won’t get helped with its two-game week; the Pioneers visit Manhattan (67th) and Hofstra (69th) in a four-day span. …

The only undefeated teams in CAA play are Towson and Drexel — and they meet Saturday on the Tigers’ home field. Winner gets a significant boost toward hosting rights for the conference tournament. … Robert Morris has won its first two league games by matching 11-6 scores. The Colonials get Le Moyne at home on Saturday. …

The Atlantic Sun schedule gets underway this weekend. Jacksonville (No. 29) has the best RPI of a largely bunched-up league, which also includes Air Force (32nd), Utah (34th) and Bellarmine (36th). … UAlbany is one of two America East teams undefeated in league play (along with NJIT) and the conference’s only team with a .500 or better record.

AT LARGE  (15 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

While this isn’t like some recent years where there is a clear-cut top profile, Syracuse checks a lot of boxes. Of course, with the entirety of ACC play still to come, the Orange will have every chance to solidify the No. 1 overall seed in the next month and a half. … A home loss to Cornell didn’t damage Princeton that much. The Tigers are going to benefit from doing well against a loaded non-conference schedule all the way until Selection Sunday. …

Notre Dame is one of a few teams (Princeton and Syracuse, to a lesser extent) that isn’t getting a bump from beating Maryland that it normally might. The Fighting Irish still have plenty of high-end opportunities left, including their entire ACC schedule and a date with Richmond in Chicago next month. … North Carolina closes non-conference play Sunday against Harvard, a game that would add to its already solid haul of results. …

Duke is 8-0 for only the second time since 2008. The Blue Devils won their first 10 games in 2021. … Cornell was the biggest winner of the weekend among the at-large contenders, jumping seven spots in the RPI after beating Princeton. The defending champs would have a claim to a first-round home game now. …

Saint Joseph’s is flirting with a top-20 victory — a defeat of Towson, which sits at 21st in the RPI — but the Hawks’ major opportunity for a splash doesn’t come until an April 18 trip to Richmond. … The winner of Saturday’s Penn State-Ohio State game will be in next week’s projected field. The loser? That remains to be seen, though both have promising starts to their overall profiles. …

The chances of Army being a serious contender for an at-large berth are dicey at this point. The Black Knights have only one regular-season opponent (Navy) remaining that’s ranked better than 30th in the RPI. … Rutgers has done nothing disqualifying (losses to Army, Ohio State and Princeton), but it needs to provide reasons to include it. Beating Johns Hopkins on Sunday would count. …

The better Penn State does, the better Navy will look. The Mids simply need to keep winning games, even if an at-large feels like a stretch. ...

Dartmouth, Penn and Virginia have hope, though Virginia probably has a little more simply because of the high-end opportunities that still remain on its schedule.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Syracuse vs. NEC/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville winner
(8) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Duke

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Notre Dame vs. BIG EAST/Denver
(4) Harvard vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Newark, Del.

(3) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. CAA/Towson
(6) North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Newark, Del.

(7) IVY/Cornell vs. Penn State
(2) Princeton vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany winner                             

Last three included: Duke, Ohio State, Penn State
First three on the outside: Army, Navy, Saint Joseph’s

Moving in: UAlbany, Cornell, Jacksonville
Moving out: Army, Utah, Vermont

Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)