NCAA Bracketology: Duke is Running Out of Time
It’s not too late for Duke to begin building a case to reach the NCAA tournament. Still, the Blue Devils can’t wait too much longer to do so.
Duke has dropped back-to-back games to Syracuse and Virginia to open its ACC schedule, an 8-0 start giving way to a surprisingly tenuous situation for a program that has reached 17 of the last 18 NCAA tournaments.
The Blue Devils head into their final three regular-season games with an RPI (13) worthy of a borderline NCAA tournament team, a relatively forgettable strength of schedule (29th) and no victories against the current top 20 of the RPI.
It’s possible one or two of the likes of Saint Joseph’s (21st), Utah (26th) and Jacksonville (29th) — which constitute Duke’s best victories to this point — will finish in the top 20. However, none of those three teams harbor realistic at-large hopes with less than a month before Selection Sunday.
It doesn’t make for a flattering comparison to the resume-toppers for other teams scrambling for the last few at-large spots. Both Penn State and Cornell picked off Princeton. Maryland owns a triple-overtime defeat of surging Virginia.
Duke’s schedule offers opportunities. The Blue Devils face Cornell on Saturday in Brookville, N.Y., close their home schedule against Notre Dame on April 18 and then visit North Carolina on April 25. There’s also the ACC tournament, though Duke will need to beat at least one of Notre Dame and North Carolina to secure a berth in it.
The rest of April will bolster Duke’s strength of schedule, likely pushing it into at least the top 20 if not higher. And adding three opponents with a combined record of 24-5 is going to help the Blue Devils’ RPI. (Opponents’ winning percentage accounts for 50 percent of the formula.)
The bottom line is Duke needs some noteworthy wins, plural. When the Blue Devils were excluded from the NCAA tournament in 2022, it was a controversial decision. It won’t be if they’re left out with an 8-5 or 9-4 record this spring.
The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 6.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (10)
Team | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | LOSSES 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johns Hopkins | 7-3 | 5 | 3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3-3 | --- |
| Richmond | 9-1 | 6 | 20 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | --- |
| Harvard | 9-1 | 7 | 18 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | --- |
| Georgetown | 5-4 | 12 | 8 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-4 | --- |
| Towson | 7-3 | 14 | 31 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2 losses vs. 21+ |
| Loyola | 7-4 | 23 | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-3 | Lehigh (32) |
| Utah | 7-3 | 26 | 41 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | Denver (30) |
| Robert Morris | 9-3 | 27 | 45 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | at St. Bonaventure (59) |
| UAlbany | 6-4 | 41 | 48 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-3 | at UMass (22) |
| Siena | 9-2 | 44 | 66 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | at Dartmouth (35) |
Johns Hopkins is one of only three teams with multiple top-10 victories (North Carolina and Princeton are the others) and is one of only three teams in the top five in both the RPI and strength of schedule (North Carolina and Syracuse are the others). The Blue Jays have the strongest profile in the Big Ten. … Richmond is no longer undefeated, but its victory over Virginia keeps getting more valuable. The Spiders remain in position to land a first-round home game for the first time. …
Harvard handled Brown to remain the only team undefeated in Ivy League play. The Crimson get Yale on the road this week, followed by a trip to Princeton and a visit from Cornell. … Georgetown hammered Providence 15-8 and slipped two spots in the RPI. The Hoyas face Marquette and St. John’s at home the next two weeks. …
On that same topic, look for Towson’s RPI to take a dip in the next week. The Tigers face winless and last-in-the-RPI Hampton on Saturday. … Loyola scored the first seven goals on the way to a 19-11 drubbing of Boston University to take sole possession of the Patriot League lead. The Greyhounds still have to face conference contenders Army and Navy. …
Utah slipped ahead of Jacksonville in the RPI this weekend. The teams meet Saturday at Jacksonville, with the winner emerging as the last undefeated team in Atlantic Sun play. … Robert Morris has won its first four NEC games by an average of nine goals and owns an eight-game winning streak overall. …
UAlbany can clinch the top seed and hosting rights for the America East tournament with a victory over Vermont on Saturday. … Siena has the outright lead in the Metro Atlantic after ripping Iona 24-7 and Sacred Heart stumbling against Quinnipiac. Sacred Heart visits the Saints on Saturday.
AT LARGE (15 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)
TEAM | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | LOSSES 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 10-1 | 1 | 2 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 6-1 | --- |
| Notre Dame | 7-1 | 2 | 9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4-1 | --- |
| Princeton | 8-2 | 3 | 7 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 5-2 | --- |
| Syracuse | 9-3 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 6-3 | --- |
| Virginia | 7-4 | 8 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-4 | --- |
| Penn State | 6-4 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5-2 | 2 losses vs. 21+ |
| Army | 8-3 | 10 | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | at Lafayette (52) |
| Maryland | 5-4 | 11 | 6 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 2-4 | --- |
| Duke | 8-2 | 13 | 29 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | --- |
| Cornell | 6-3 | 15 | 13 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 2-3 | --- |
| Rutgers | 8-4 | 16 | 19 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-3 | at Michigan (40) |
| Ohio State | 8-3 | 17 | 15 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2-3 | --- |
| Boston U | 5-5 | 18 | 12 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 2 losses vs. 21+ |
| Penn | 5-5 | 19 | 11 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-5 | --- |
| Yale | 5-4 | 20 | 14 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 2-4 | --- |
North Carolina may be at the point it can lose out and still make the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels still have Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke and the ACC tournament to come. … Notre Dame added a top-10 victory (Richmond) even as the one it had earlier (Georgetown) was devalued by the Hoyas’ RPI drop. …
Princeton’s victories over North Carolina and Syracuse continue to help it maintain a top-two profile. The Tigers are also now benefitting from Maryland’s rise into the top 20. … Losing at North Carolina didn’t make a serious dent in Syracuse’s profile. The Orange slipped one spot in the RPI and maintained their spot atop the strength of schedule rating. …
Virginia’s rapid rise continued with its victory at Duke. The Cavaliers’ four-game winning streak has vaulted it into position to play host to a first-round game. … Penn State has more good and more bad in its resume than Virginia, and both are distinguishing features. The Nittany Lions remain solidly in the field despite their loss to Johns Hopkins. …
Army has good metrics and victories over Rutgers and Yale, but the loss to Lafayette remains an anchor for the Black Knights. … Well, well, well. Look at Maryland’s metrics rising. The Terrapins are far from a sure thing to avoid missing the tournament for the first time since 2002, but back-to-back victories over Michigan and Ohio State have Maryland in much better shape than a couple weeks ago. …
Duke’s strength of schedule is going to get better the next three weeks, but the lack of a top-20 victory is a glaring absence. … Cornell owns a top-five victory (at Princeton) and no bad losses. The first differentiates the Big Red from Ohio State, and the other provides a contrast to Rutgers. …
Sunday’s loss to 4-7 Michigan not only damaged Rutgers in the Big Ten title race, it also handed the Scarlet Knights the sort of loss that will be held against it if it is to land an at-large berth. … Ohio State’s at-large hopes probably hinge on beating Johns Hopkins on Saturday. The Buckeyes won’t get much of a bump if they beat Michigan to close the regular season next week. …
Boston University has lost three in a row to see its at-large chances fade. The Terriers close the regular season against Bucknell (36th in the RPI), Lafayette (52nd) and Holy Cross (47th). … Penn and Yale need victories this week to have any kind of chance at an at-large. Penn visits Princeton on Saturday, while the Bulldogs play host to Harvard.
BRACKET
A few notes worth remembering …
- First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
- The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
- Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
- Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
- This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.
Newark, Del.
(1) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️
(8) Virginia vs. Penn State
Hempstead, N.Y.
(5) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Cornell
(4) Notre Dame vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown ✈️
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Loyola
(6) IVY/Harvard vs. CAA/Towson
Newark, Del.
(7) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. Maryland
(2) Princeton vs. AMERICA EAST/UAlbany-METRO ATLANTIC/Siena winner
Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Maryland
First three on the outside: Ohio State, Army, Rutgers
Moving in: Loyola, Maryland, Siena, Utah
Moving out: Boston University, Duke, Jacksonville, Sacred Heart
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)
FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES
*Per Google Maps
126: Maryland to Richmond
191: Albany to Princeton
192: Siena to Princeton
290: Penn State to Virginia
305: Cornell to Johns Hopkins
328: Loyola to Syracuse
397: Towson to Harvard
478: Robert Morris to North Carolina
605: Georgetown to Notre Dame
2,113: Utah to North Carolina
Patrick Stevens
Patrick Stevens has covered college sports for 25 years. His work also appears in The Washington Post, Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook and other outlets. He's provided coverage of Division I men's lacrosse to USA Lacrosse Magazine since 2010.
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