NCAA Bracketology: The First Men's Bracket Projection

Heavens knows the RPI isn’t the best metric for sorting through teams. Its efficacy was so great that the NCAA discarded it in basketball going into the 2018-19 season and replaced it with an unpublished formula called the NET that now generates just as many complaints as the RPI did.

So, for the NCAA, there’s probably not a winning solution. But that doesn’t mean the RPI is fantastic.

Lacrosse remains saddled with an imprecise tool and roughly half as many regular-season games as there were in basketball.

And right now, most lacrosse teams are a bit past the midpoint of their schedules, further limiting the utility of the RPI. Small sample sizes create all sorts of wonkiness, as this season’s initial data release illustrates.

But it’s the instrument being used, and trying to project a field of 17 teams for the NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament without it is a pointless endeavor. It’s what the committee will use, and the RPI’s utility in going through the bracket exercise in the coming weeks will progress from suboptimal to … well, a little less suboptimal.

Regardless, consider this a starting point in a conversation that will be clarified significantly over the next five weeks.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 25.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Penn State owns the most well-rounded profile at this stage, and three of its final four regular-season games are against Top 20 opponents. … Cornell’s victory over Yale already appears to be one of the more valuable assets on the board. The Big Red is ranked higher in the RPI than Ivy co-leader Penn, hence its place as the league’s automatic qualifier. …

Big East play hasn’t started, so the AQ is allocated to the top team in the RPI. That would be Denver, which owns victories over Cornell and Johns Hopkins. … Colgate is the lone undefeated team in Patriot League play and sits a half-game ahead of Army and Boston U. The Raiders still must play both of those Top 20 teams in the back half of conference play. …

Saint Joseph’s, which has won five in a row, owns the best RPI in the Atlantic 10 as the six-team league heads into conference play. High Point (29th) and Richmond (30th) are the next best. …  Towson edges out Delaware (25th) for the best RPI of the remaining undefeated teams in league play in the rechristened Coastal Athletic Association. …

Quinnipiac owns two victories against the top 40: Bryant (31st) and Brown (37th). The next highest-ranked Metro Atlantic team in the RPI is LIU at 46th. … Jacksonville gets the RPI tiebreaker ahead of Cleveland State (41st) and Air Force (43rd) in the Atlantic Sun. … UMBC plays host to America East co-leader Albany (49th) on Saturday.

AT LARGE  (17 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

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Yale is a good team, but it probably isn’t the best team in the country. Credit a combination of solid play and excellent scheduling for that top spot. The Bulldogs will take a hit simply by taking the field Tuesday against Le Moyne (70th of 76 in the RPI). … Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is four ACC teams and Cornell, followed by the ACC tournament. That will provide ample opportunities for signature victories. …

Duke collected a valuable victory Sunday against Denver. Had the Blue Devils lost that game, they probably would have been on the road (most likely at Johns Hopkins) in this exercise. … Syracuse’s victories (particularly Duke and Johns Hopkins) provide it a seeding boost in this early exercise. …

Virginia surprisingly doesn’t have the deepest of resumes, even with victories over half of the Big Ten (including Maryland and Michigan). There will be chances to rectify the problem with four league games and a date with Harvard over the next five weekends. … Maryland’s overtime victory at Syracuse in February looks more valuable than the Terrapins probably expected it to be. Or, at least for now, need it to be. …

Army’s chances of an at-large bid — which, by definition, would mean the Black Knights would have to lose a Patriot League tournament game — aren’t helped by that strength of schedule. And Saturday’s trip to North Carolina is less of an opportunity than Army probably figured it would be. … On the subject of teams that wish beating the Tar Heels was more valuable than it is, say hello to Princeton. The Tigers collected their lone Top 20 victory over the weekend by winning at Harvard. …

Georgetown owns one of the best victories on the board (Notre Dame). But its profile also stands out because of its loss to 13-6 Loyola. …  Villanova’s numbers are quite good, and a key part of that is the Wildcats’ worst opponent to this point (Monmouth) ranks in the top half of the RPI at 36th. …

It’s safe to say Michigan, Harvard and Ohio State have some work to do in adding top-end victories (though the Wolverines helped themselves a bit by beating Maryland). … Losses outside the Top 20 are currently distinguishing the profiles of Penn, Boston U and Navy for the wrong reasons. … No team unlisted above has more than one Top 20 victory, and none of them have a top 10 triumph.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Towson would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Towson, Md.

(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. Virginia

Towson, Md.

(5) Duke vs. ACC/Towson
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Colgate

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. Army

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) BIG EAST/Denver vs. Maryland
(2) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac

Last three included: Virginia, Maryland, Army
First three on the outside: Georgetown, Princeton, Michigan
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)