NCAA Bracketology: Harvard vs. Army for Final Projected Spot in Field

Friday could have gone worse for Army. But not much worse.

The Black Knights lost 16-13 to Colgate in the Patriot League semifinals, ensuring about 50 anxious hours between the end of the game — which could double as the end of Army’s season — and the announcement of the 18-team NCAA tournament field.

Elsewhere, Syracuse seemed like it might be vulnerable to getting excluded from the field if it lost an ACC tournament semifinal to Notre Dame and there was chaos elsewhere. Neither really happened. The Orange won, and the most prominent potential bid snatchers (Rutgers in the Big Ten on Thursday, Yale in the Ivy League on Friday) were swept aside in conference semifinals.

In the ACC nightcap, North Carolina was blasted by Duke, thereby devaluing the Black Knights’ victory over the Tar Heels during the regular season. Oh, and it ended any slim prospect of Duke getting excluded from the field as well.

About the only thing that broke for Army was Harvard’s 11-8 loss to Princeton in the Ivy semis. That leaves the Black Knights and the Crimson as the clear-cut choices for the last at-large berth.

Both teams are in the clubhouse, and Harvard holds advantages in the RPI (11th to Army’s 12th) and strength of schedule (13th to the Black Knights’ 25th). Both teams own a top-five win (Army’s aforementioned defeat of North Carolina, Harvard’s February triumph at Syracuse).

Army has additional victories over Colgate (17th in the RPI) and Yale (19th). Harvard tripped up Boston U (13th), Michigan (15th) and Yale. Army lost to Boston U and Colgate. Harvard’s stumbles were twice against Princeton (2nd) and once against Cornell (3rd) and Colgate.

Dig into the actual RPI calculation per Lacrosse Reference, and Harvard’s value of .6162 is closer to No. 6 Ohio State (.6339) than Army (.5921) just a spot below it.

None of this bodes well for the Black Knights, who are going to need the committee to look past the numbers to land an at-large. Historically, that hasn’t been an effective strategy.

Saturday’s schedule

Atlantic 10 final: Richmond vs. High Point in Philadelphia, noon
CAA final: Drexel at Towson, noon
Northeast final: Robert Morris vs. Detroit in Syracuse, N.Y., noon
Metro Atlantic final: Siena at Sacred Heart, 12:30 (ESPNU)
America East final: Albany at Bryant, 1
Big East final: Georgetown vs. Villanova in Denver, 5 (CBS Sports Network)
Big Ten final: Ohio State vs. Maryland in Ann Arbor, Mich., 8 (Big Ten Network)

The updated bracket breakdown …

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Cornell scored early and often while outlasting Yale 21-14 and waiting out a pair of weather delays in the Ivy League semifinals. The Big Red’s range of realistic seedings is anywhere between No. 1 and No. 3. … What is the peak for Ohio State’s seeding? It’s a little bit of a puzzler because of that opening loss to Utah. With a victory over Maryland in the Big Ten tournament final, it’s plausible the Buckeyes could climb up to the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. …

Richmond’s top-20 victories came against Virginia, Georgetown and Saint Joseph’s. That’s probably not enough for the Spiders to snag an at-large berth if they fall in the Atlantic 10 final to High Point (RPI: 26). … Boston U is the top remaining seed in the Patriot League tournament after Army lost at home in the semifinals for the second year in a row. The Terriers beat Lafayette 12-10 to advance to Sunday’s final. …

Georgetown faces Villanova (RPI: 32) in the Big East title game. The teams just met April 25, with the Hoyas cruising 17-9. Georgetown has outscored its last three opponents by a combined 57-25. Nonetheless, the Big East is one-bid territory this year, and the Hoyas need to win to get in. … Towson hauls a nine-game winning streak into Saturday’s CAA title game against Drexel (RPI: 41), a contest that was moved up from 3:30 to noon due to weather concerns in the Baltimore area. …

Robert Morris is seeking its fourth NCAA tournament trip, while Detroit is chasing its second (and first since 2013) in the Northeast title game. … Sacred Heart takes an eight-game winning streak into the Metro Atlantic final against Siena, which last reached the NCAA tournament in 2014. …

With Bryant and UAlbany (RPI: 39) both in the bottom half of the RPI, the America East title game winner is headed to a play-in game. … Utah will aim for its third consecutive NCAA tournament berth when it meets Air Force in Sunday’s Atlantic Sun final. The winner is getting a ticket to head east for a play-in game.

AT LARGE  (10 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Tough to see how the committee would give a 12-2 team with the No. 1 RPI and No. 1 strength of schedule anything but the No. 1 seed. That would be Maryland’s scenario if it beats Ohio State in the Big Ten final. A loss would make it easier to bump the Terrapins to No. 2 in case Cornell wins the Ivy League. … Based on the numbers, Princeton has done enough to land the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, depending on the outcome of the Ivy League final. …

Penn State was a subtle winner Friday. It remains in the top four in both RPI and strength of schedule and its defeat of Cornell is still the only one of its kind this season. The Nittany Lions could get passed by the ACC champion and possibly Ohio State if it wins the Big ten final, but the Nittany Lions shouldn’t fall below a No. 6 seed.  … Duke’s three-game winning streak (Syracuse, at Virginia, vs. North Carolina) has vaulted it from the edge of the field to contention for a top-four seed. …

Syracuse is safely in the field after Friday’s results, which include its second defeat of Notre Dame. Harvard’s loss to Princeton was also a plus. The Orange could be in line for home-dome advantage in the first round of the NCAA tournament, too. … North Carolina vs. Notre Dame for the No. 8 seed? That could be a committee conversation, with the ACC title game loser tossed in for good measure. Notre Dame won the regular-season meeting 12-6 in Chapel Hill on April 19. …

The numbers favor Harvard for the last at-large spot, and a Syracuse victory in the ACC title game would help the Crimson even more. … Army hadn’t allowed more than 12 goals all season prior to its 16-13 loss to Colgate in the Patriot League semifinals. That game might ultimately squeeze the Black Knights out of the field. … With either Harvard or Army in line to be excluded, Michigan won’t be the (distant) first team just on the outside of the field. Instead, the Wolverines will be the second team, by a wide margin in both directions.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner
(8) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Penn State vs. COASTAL/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. PATRIOT/Boston University
(6) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. North Carolina

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) Syracuse vs. Harvard
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Bryant winner

Last three included: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Harvard
First three on the outside: Army, Michigan, Colgate
Moving in: Boston U
Moving out: Army
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)