NCAA Bracketology: The Last Four Questions to Answer

Four games remain in the Division I men’s lacrosse regular season. Coincidentally, how the NCAA tournament selection show shakes out comes down to four questions.

The first seven teams are into the field, with four conference tournament No. 1 seeds (Georgetown, Ohio State, Richmond and Towson) locking up berths Saturday. So did the top eligible seed in the Northeast Conference (Robert Morris). And a pair of Capital District schools (UAlbany and Siena) toppled regular-season champs on the road to earn automatic berths in their respective leagues.

There aren’t many sure things to look for from the selection committee, but UAlbany and Siena (two schools separated by less than 10 miles) getting paired in a cost-effective play-in game looks like a near-certainty.

As for those four questions? Glad you asked.

Who will be the No. 1 seed?

The numbers say Maryland. The Terrapins (11-3) are still No. 1 in the RPI and strength of schedule after Saturday’s Big Ten tournament loss to Ohio State, and they possess oodles of quality victories.

Remember, though, that Cornell was No. 1 in the committee’s ranking release a couple weekends ago, and the Big Red can wrap up a 14-1 season (with the loss coming in overtime to Penn State) by beating Princeton in the Ivy League final.

This feels like a situation where some argument could be concocted to get Cornell to No. 1 that goes beyond “Maryland didn’t look good Saturday.” Maybe it’s winning percentage, maybe it stems from conference titles. But the Big Red could well be playing for the top seed this afternoon.

How will the middle four seeds shake out?

It’s a group that looks like it will include an Ivy League team (Princeton or Cornell), the ACC champ (Duke or Syracuse), Ohio State and Penn State.

Cornell isn’t falling below No. 3. Princeton probably won’t, either; it beat Duke and Penn State, its profile is better than Syracuse’s and while there might be a case for Ohio State, the Buckeyes still have to answer for their opening loss to Utah.

Ohio State would make for a solid No. 4 or No. 5 seed, as would Duke if it wins. Penn State is an interesting case. It has top-five metrics and the only defeat of Cornell, but its only other victory over a postseason team is Robert Morris. (That number grows to two if Colgate wins the Patriot League.)

The Nittany Lions have a fairly narrow band that seems fair. Look for them to be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. It seems unlikely that both ACC finalists would jump ahead of them.

Which ACC team gets sent on the road?

Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Syracuse are all getting in, but if Cornell and Princeton are hosting and so are Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State, there’s only room for three of the ACC teams to open the tournament at home.

Syracuse beat Notre Dame twice. Notre Dame won at North Carolina. North Carolina won at Syracuse. Duke lost to Notre Dame and split with North Carolina. And their profiles aren’t dramatically different, though Duke’s appears to be a bit better at the moment.

The guess here is this will wind up being the committee’s most extensive discussion. Whoever it is that gets sent on the road has a good chance to wind up in Happy Valley against Penn State.

Who gets the last spot: Army or Harvard?

Nothing’s changed since yesterday in this comparison, and it won’t change today, either. Harvard played the better schedule. Both teams have a victory over a top-10 opponent (Harvard at Syracuse, Army at home against North Carolina). Neither team has a noteworthy loss to its name.

Harvard is still a spot ahead of Army in the RPI at 11th, but the gap in the actual RPI calculation is considerable. The Crimson is at .61561, while the Black Knights are at .59171. A difference of .0239 may not seem like much, but it is really a chasm. Harvard is closer to the team four spots ahead of it (No. 7 Syracuse) than the Army team a slot below it. The guess here is the committee goes with Harvard for the final at-large berth.

Sunday’s schedule

Patriot final: Boston U vs. Colgate in West Point, N.Y., 11:30 a.m. (CBS Sports Network)
ACC final: Duke vs. Syracuse in Charlotte, N.C., noon (ACC Network)
ASUN final: Air Force vs. Utah in Jacksonville, Fla., noon
Ivy final: Princeton at Cornell, 1 (ESPN2)

The updated bracket breakdown …

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Cornell can clearly help itself with a victory over Princeton in the Ivy League final, but a Syracuse win over Duke would help the Big Red, too. Cornell beat Syracuse last month on a neutral field and could go from one top-five win to three in a matter of a few hours Sunday. … Ohio State is the Big Ten tournament champion for the first time and will make its eighth all-time NCAA appearance and first since 2022.

Atlantic 10 champ Richmond will make its third NCAA trip in four years and sixth overall after pulling away from High Point for a 16-10 victory on Saturday. The Spiders are likely going on the road in the first round, but they won’t be an easy out. … Boston U meets Colgate (RPI: 18) in the Patriot League final on Sunday. There’s no threat of either getting dropped to a play-in game.

Georgetown became the first Division I program to win seven consecutive conference tournaments as it turned aside Villanova in the Big East final. The Hoyas will go on the road and look for their third consecutive NCAA quarterfinal appearance. … Towson is the CAA winner for the second consecutive season and will make its 17th NCAA appearance. The Tigers will head on the road; Duke, Princeton, Ohio State and Penn State are all plausible destinations.

Siena, a 12-8 winner in the Metro Atlantic final, will make its first NCAA trip since 2014 and fourth all time. The Saints are in line to host a play-in game, likely against crosstown rival UAlbany. … Robert Morris is the probable host of the other play-in game after routing Detroit in the Northeast title game. The Colonials are back in the tournament for the first time since 2022 (when they dropped a play-in game at Delaware) and the fourth time ever. …

UAlbany is in the tournament for the second year in a row and 12th overall, all under coach Scott Marr. The America East champions will head back to a play-in game; the Great Danes defeated Sacred Heart on the Wednesday prior to the first round last year. … Utah faces Air Force in Sunday’s Atlantic Sun final, with the winner likely ticketed for a trip to Robert Morris on Wednesday.

AT LARGE  (10 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

The No. 1 seed has been the team No. 1 in the RPI in every tournament since 2016. Worth noting as Maryland waits to learn if it is the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. … The ceiling for Princeton is the No. 2 seed. The floor? Probably no lower than No. 4 with those victories over Penn State and Duke. …

A No. 5 or No. 6 seed is about right for Penn State, which didn’t lose to a team outside the top five and holds the only victory over Cornell. … Don’t see Duke getting sent on the road even if it loses in the  ACC final. A victory puts the Blue Devils in line for a No. 4 or No. 5 seed. …

Syracuse could very well be playing for a first-round home game when it faces Duke on Sunday. If the Orange do get bumped into an unseeded slot, a trip to Penn State could very well be in the offing. … If Syracuse did get sent on the road, the beneficiary would likely be North Carolina. And Richmond would be an obvious team to send a few hours down the road to Chapel Hill. …

The guess here is Notre Dame gets the No. 7 or No. 8 seed — not an optimal slot, but still with the benefit of playing at home. … Hard to envision Harvard getting a home game, but its overall profile on paper suggests it will be the last team into the field. …

Every year, there’s a team that wishes/hopes the heretofore nonexistent “eye test” will get utilized. And Army is that team this year. Here’s a subjective declaration: If the Black Knights do miss out, they’ll be among the two or three most dangerous teams to miss the tournament since it expanded to 16 teams in 2003 (behind 2022 Notre Dame and possibly 2022 Duke). … A case study in how not playing extra games (and cycling out weaker opponents) hurts a team’s strength of schedule is that Michigan has dropped from first to seventh in the category since last Sunday.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena-AMERICA EAST/Albany winner
(8) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Penn State vs. North Carolina
(4) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. COASTAL/Towson
(6) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Annapolis, Md.

(7) Syracuse vs. Harvard
(2) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner

Last three included: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Harvard
First three on the outside: Army, Michigan, Colgate
Moving in: UAlbany, Siena
Moving out: Bryant, Sacred Heart
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)