NCAA Bracketology: Maryland Now at Risk of Missing the Dance

A chalky conference tournament Thursday didn’t change the postseason picture much — with one notable exception.

Maryland tumbled from 10th to 15th in the RPI after its 8-6 loss to Penn State, and the 7-6 Terrapins are staring at the distinct possibility of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2002.

If it comes to pass, it would mean the end of the third-longest streak of appearances in the event’s history. Johns Hopkins missed the initial event, then rattled off 41 tournaments in a row from 1972-2012. Syracuse famously made 22 consecutive semifinal appearances from 1983-2004, but the Orange also made the next two tournaments before an off year in 2007.

Maryland’s enjoyed consistency even beyond checking the box of making the tournament in every season since it expanded to 16 teams. It has played on Memorial Day nine times since 2011. During their 22-tournament streak, the Terps have secured a seed and a first-round home game all but four times (2009, 2011-12 and 2019). And they’ve won 10 games in every full season since 2003.

Such consistency is not easy; the second-longest active tournament streak is Georgetown’s seven consecutive trips. Princeton is up next with four.

Maryland still has some hope, but it needs help. Losses by Harvard and Yale in the Ivy League semifinals and a Richmond victory in the Atlantic 10 final would all benefit the Terps. It wouldn’t hurt if Virginia could win a game or two in the ACC tournament and enhance Maryland’s most high-profile victory. Even a Patriot League title run by Loyola, a team Maryland defeated in its season opener, could provide a bump.

But if this marks the end of the Terps’ streak, it will not be a controversial choice. Maryland had seven shots at teams currently in the top 10 of the RPI and won just one of them, and even that was at home in triple overtime. No one could be criticized for thinking a team with that profile, however formidable a schedule it played, wasn’t one of the eight best teams in the at-large field.

The following is based on RPI data available the morning of Friday, May 1.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

And the streak continues: Richmond has advanced to a conference tournament in all 12 seasons of its existence that it could. The Spiders dispatched UMass in the A-10 semifinals, much to the delight of borderline tournament teams in the next chart. … Cornell is in strong position to land a first-round home game, but a victory over Harvard on Friday should effectively pin it down regardless of what happens elsewhere this weekend. …

Johns Hopkins removed any possible doubt about its place in the postseason by defeating Michigan 14-12 on Thursday and sweeping the last potential bid snatcher out of the Big Ten tournament. … Georgetown has now won 15 consecutive Big East tournament games dating back to 2018 after pushing aside Denver in Thursday’s semifinals. It’s the Hoyas’ fifth defeat of Denver in the league tournament in that span. …

Army needs two wins in three days in West Point to return to the NCAA field for the first time since 2023. The Black Knights face sixth-seeded Lehigh in the Patriot League semifinals on Friday. … Towson ran its winning streak against CAA teams to 25 by doubling up Monmouth 14-7. The Tigers play host to Stony Brook in Saturday’s title game. …

UAlbany rolled past UMBC to secure an America East final date with Vermont on Saturday. A victory would give the Great Danes their first unblemished run through the league’s regular season and tournament since 2017. … Robert Morris has won 12 in a row after walloping VMI 12-5 in the NEC semifinals. The Colonials go for their fifth NCAA berth since 2018 in Saturday’s final against Long Island. …

The Atlantic Sun tournament gets underway Friday as host Jacksonville tries to secure its first NCAA tournament berth. The Dolphins are 3-10 all-time in conference tournaments. ... Siena is a victory away form a successful Metro Atlantic title defense after fending off Merrimack on Thursday. Marist awaits in Saturday's final.

The Atlantic Sun tournament gets underway Friday as host Jacksonville tries to secure its first NCAA tournament berth. The Dolphins are 3-10 all-time in conference tournaments. … Siena is a victory away from a successful Metro Atlantic title defense after fending off Merrimack on Thursday. Marist awaits in Saturday’s final.

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame, Princeton, North Carolina and Syracuse are the four credible contenders to earn a top-two seed and welcome a play-in winner on the Sunday of the first round. More accurately, Notre Dame will be one of those two and Princeton, North Carolina or Syracuse will be the other. …

Duke got results of varying degrees of utility Thursday. Michigan won’t be stealing a bid in the Big Ten, Richmond remains alive in the Atlantic 10 and Saint Joseph’s (a team Duke beat) is still lurking just outside the top 20 after beating High Point in the A-10 semifinals. … Virginia might just be playing for a first-round home game when it meets Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals. …

Penn State strengthened its hand considerably with its 8-6 smothering of Maryland in the Big Ten semifinals. The Nittany Lions would be a fascinating at-large case to evaluate, but they can take things out of the committee’s control if they beat Hopkins in Saturday’s final. … There are big opportunities for Harvard and Yale in the Ivy semifinals. They have as much to gain as anyone on Friday. …

There are teams that have effectively scheduled their way into the NCAA tournament, and it (along with a victory over Virginia) would be an easy reason to cite if Maryland’s season continues after Thursday’s loss to Penn State. More than half the Terrapins’ schedule came against top-10 teams in the RPI (Penn State twice, plus Notre Dame, Princeton, Syracuse, Johns Hopkins and Virginia). …

Penn and Ohio State won’t have enough to get in. Penn defeated Yale, while Ohio State has defeats of Hopkins and Georgetown.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Delaware would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-NEC/Robert Morris winner ✈️ (possibly)
(8) Virginia vs. Penn State

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. Yale ✈️
(4) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army

Newark, Del.

(3) North Carolina vs. CAA/Towson
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Newark, Del.

(7) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Duke
(2) Princeton vs. AMERICA EAST/Albany-METRO ATLANTIC/Siena winner

Last three included: Penn State, Duke, Yale
First three on the outside: Harvard, Maryland, Ohio State

Moving in: Yale
Moving out: Maryland

Conference call: ACC (5), Ivy (3), Big Ten (2)

FIRST-ROUND MILEAGES

*per Google Maps

191: Albany to Princeton
192: Siena to Princeton
219: Army to Syracuse
290: Penn State to Virginia
304: Duke to Johns Hopkins
332: Georgetown to Cornell
334: Towson to North Carolina
365: Robert Morris to Notre Dame
414: Yale to Richmond
1,029: Jacksonville to Notre Dame