2026 PLL Championship Preview: Keys to Success, Predictions, Best Bets

The Waterdogs are making their third appearance in the title game with hopes of capturing their second PLL title. Denver is back in the final after losing by a goal in last year’s finale. The Outlaws aim for the team’s fourth professional title and first as a member of the PLL.

There are plenty of intriguing championship game storylines to watch, but let’s look at the keys to success for each team, spotlight some matchups to monitor and make some predictions for the season finale.

When these teams met earlier in the summer, the Waterdogs trounced the Outlaws 18-8 in Denver. Michael Sowers and CJ Kirst led the charge, combining for 11 points in the beatdown.

But Denver rested Brennan O’Neill, and goaltender Logan McNaney clearly wasn’t 100 percent healthy, pulling himself halfway through the game. JT Giles-Harris was also on the sideline later in the game, and Jared Bernhardt exited with a hamstring injury. Neither Bernhardt nor Pat Kavanagh re-entered the lineup until the start of the playoffs.

“Certainly, the last time we played the Outlaws, they weren’t the [usual] Outlaws,” Waterdogs coach Bill Tierney said. “We know what we’re up against.”

That’s not to say Philly’s win wasn’t impressive. The Waterdogs handed the Outlaws their most lopsided loss of the season and dropped a season-high 18 scores on a Denver defense allowing just 10 scores per game entering that weekend. Sowers thrived as both a scorer and passer, and Philadelphia did a great job freeing up Kirst off-ball.

Initiating offense with Sowers in settled situations will be key for the Waterdogs. If Sowers can win his matchup with Giles-Harris and force Denver to slide earlier, it could give Philadelphia’s numerous shooters plenty of chances.

Even more critical will be Philadelphia’s ability to generate offense off the faceoff and in unsettled situations. Denver’s settled defense is one of the best in the league, but Philadelphia showed it could attack the Outlaws in transition. 

Denver’s short-stick defender unit is also one of the best, so expect the Waterdogs to try to generate offense early off the draw and even trap the Outlaws’ offensive personnel in transition to get this defense on its heels. Zach Currier should factor heavily into this, so expect him to stay and play more often following faceoff wins and defensive stops.

For Denver, maintaining their defensive matchups will be paramount. The Outlaws defended Kirst fairly well when they last played, but the Waterdogs made them pay when they forced Denver to switch matchups. Philly set up Kirst to beat Zach Geddes on a dodge and score early in the game, and Kirst scored another via a quick cut and finish that was created thanks to some savvy off-ball motion above the crease.

His other two goals came on costly clearing turnovers by Denver. Whether it’s unforced errors or offside penalties, the Outlaws have been prone to mistakes in the clearing game. Limiting those mental mistakes will also be critical in stopping Philadelphia.

Another key to victory for the Outlaws will be turning defensive stops into offensive chances. The Outlaws are at their best when McNaney is making clean saves and pushing transition the other way. Generating offense on fast breaks will be the best way for the Outlaws to keep pace with the high-powered Philly offense.

Also, expect the Outlaws to attack the Waterdogs’ short-stick defenders often. Bernhardt and Dalton Young should factor heavily into this. Expect Denver to attack Philadelphia both from the midfield or on inverts.

All eyes will continue to be on Kirst, who has plenty of big moments in big games. The last time these teams played each other, it was mostly Mike Manley guarding Kirst, while Ben Randall also covered him on several possessions. Both can match Kirst’s physicality when defending him on-ball, but no team has been more creative in getting its star players open than Philadelphia. Don’t be surprised to see Kirst score in a variety of ways.

On the other end, O’Neill will likely be Denver’s X-factor. He was notably absent in the last meeting between but has been dominant in the playoffs. He’s had some back-and-forth battles with former Duke teammate Kenny Brower, so I’d anticipate that Denver will also do its best to get him dodging off quick ball movement or free him up with on-ball picks.

Another player to watch is Philadelphia goaltender Sean Byrne, who is averaging 14.8 saves as the starter and made 15 stops against Denver last time. The rookie will be relied on heavily to stifle this Outlaws offense.

On Denver’s defensive end, Ryan Terefenko and Geddes will be two to watch. Both can hold their own on defense and have been difference-makers in transition.

The aforementioned matchup between GIles-Harris and Sowers could determine who wins. While Sowers got the best of Giles-Harris before the latter was ultimately sidelined for parts of the fourth quarter, he held Sowers to no goals and two assists last year. Philly’s offense around Sowers was notably different last season and didn’t have Kirst, so it will be interesting to see who wins this latest battle.

On the other end of the field, Gavin Adler versus Pat Kavanagh will draw a lot of attention. As a member of the Atlas, Adler played Kavanagh tight in last year’s championship game, but Kavanagh still managed to record two goals and two assists in a loss. 

Earlier this year, Adler held Kavanagh to just one assist. The Outlaws offense is at its best when it flows through Kavanagh, so if Adler can have an outing like earlier this season, he could find himself hoisting the trophy again with his new team.

After jumping out to an early lead, the Outlaws outlast the Waterdogs in a one-possession game by fending off a late second-half rally by Philly. Tim Soudan captures his first pro championship as a head coach thanks to a gritty performance by his defense and a multi-goal game from the eventual championship MVP Brennan O’Neill.

• Denver Outlaws ML (+100 on Caesars)
• Brennan O’Neill Over 2.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)
• Jared Bernhardt Over 1.5 Goals (-125 on BetMGM or DraftKings)