The NCAA released its first RPI update of the season Monday. And to state the obvious, there’s still a long way to go.
No conference games have been played in the ACC, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Big East and Big Ten. Those leagues alone account for more than half of USA Lacrosse Magazine’s first projected field of 18 this season, and the team with the best RPI — however flawed the formula is — is currently a stand-in for the automatic qualifiers in the latter four leagues.
(Yes, it’s an 18-team field for the first time since 2016. Do welcome back the Northeast Conference, which means there are 10 leagues eligible for an automatic bid.)
There are a few early conclusions to draw, and they line up with what has happened over the last seven weekends. Maryland built a tournament-worthy resume even before it played a conference game. Princeton has also done plenty of valuable work in its first month of the season.
Also notable is who is absent. Denver, an NCAA semifinalist last season and 4-4 so far this year, is nowhere it be seen thanks to an RPI of 42. Ditto 3-4 Virginia, which isn’t even on the board because of its losing record.
Both have plenty of things to take care of in the back half of the regular season, though their absences open up possibilities for other teams to leave a mark — opportunities that are already starting to present themselves.
The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 18.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (10)
Team | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | LOSSES 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 | --- |
| Cornell | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-1 | --- |
| Army | 7-0 | 9 | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | --- |
| UMass | 6-1 | 11 | 36 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | --- |
| Fairfield | 8-0 | 14 | 57 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | --- |
| Georgetown | 5-2 | 21 | 23 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | --- |
| Jacksonville | 5-3 | 31 | 45 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | --- |
| LIU | 6-1 | 37 | 68 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | at Rutgers (27) |
| UMBC | 3-2 | 48 | 47 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Towson (36) |
| Manhattan | 4-3 | 58 | 67 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | at Vermont (35), Stony Brook (40) |
Maryland doesn’t have any flaws to fix in its on-paper resume, right down to a strength of schedule that won’t give it any problems after tacking on at least six games against Big Ten opponents. … Cornell’s profile might not be quite as strong as Maryland’s, but it’s plenty good enough to this point, especially after Saturday’s defeat of Princeton. …
Can’t overstate enough how much a victory over North Carolina could impact things for Army in two Saturdays. That could be the difference between having wiggle room in May and needing to win the Patriot League tournament just to make the NCAA field. … A good start for UMass, which gets the A-10 nod by virtue of its superior RPI to fellow top-20 teams Richmond and Saint Joseph’s. …
Fairfield has already taken the RPI that simply playing winless Hampton delivers. Relatedly, the Stags’ strength of schedule figures to take a considerable jump in the next few weeks. … There might not be much help in Big East play to bolster Georgetown’s metrics. No one else in the league is ranked higher than 33rd entering the week. …
Jacksonville lost to Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse during non-conference play. It has an open date before its Atlantic Sun schedule begins. … With the extra automatic berth this season and four teams needed for play-in games, it’s going to be difficult for the NEC, America East or Metro Atlantic champions to escape a play-in game.
AT LARGE (16 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)
TEAM | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | LOSSES 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton | 4-2 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 | --- |
| North Carolina | 6-1 | 3 | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 | --- |
| Duke | 8-1 | 4 | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-1 | --- |
| Notre Dame | 4-2 | 6 | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | --- |
| Penn State | 6-1 | 7 | 17 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | --- |
| Harvard | 5-1 | 8 | 13 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | Colgate (26) |
| Syracuse | 5-2 | 10 | 12 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-2 | --- |
| Johns Hopkins | 6-2 | 12 | 14 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-2 | --- |
| Richmond | 5-3 | 13 | 20 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 1-3 | --- |
| Ohio State | 8-1 | 15 | 43 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | Utah (56) |
| Dartmouth | 6-1 | 16 | 38 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | --- |
| Penn | 4-3 | 18 | 17 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | at Georgetown (21) |
| Saint Joseph's | 5-2 | 19 | 36 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Sacred Heart (28) |
| Michigan | 4-4 | 20 | 19 | 0-2 | 0-4 | 0-4 | --- |
| Boston U | 6-1 | 24 | 40 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | at Navy (29) |
| Colgate | 5-3 | 26 | 25 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-2 | Bucknell (49) |
Is Princeton the best team in the country? Not with two losses at this point, it isn’t. Has it played the toughest schedule? Without question. … For North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame and Syracuse, the opportunity to play each other once (and get a second shot at one or two teams from that group) in ACC play will only enhance the strength of schedule numbers as well as filling out the high-end victories. …
Penn State’s victory over Cornell is a significant asset, and it will have an additional handful of prime opportunities in Big Ten play, starting with Sunday night’s home game against Ohio State. … Harvard has a fabulous chance to enhance its already solid profile when it visits Princeton on Saturday. …
Johns Hopkins is a bit unlucky that so many of the teams it has defeated — Denver, Towson and Loyola among them — are having down years. Even its lone top-20 victory came against sub-.500 Virginia. … On that subject, Richmond probably was counting on getting more mileage out of beating the Cavaliers than they are to this point. …
Ohio State is the early favorite for the season's strangest profile. The Buckeyes have defeated Notre Dame but also own the worst loss on the board among remotely credible at-large candidates. That opening-weekend stumble against Utah will be mentioned more than once the rest of the regular season. … The gap from those 10 at-large candidates and the rest of Division I is considerable thanks to the absence of top-20 victories. … Colgate was looking like it could have an interesting profile, and it still might. But there’s no doubt the home loss to Bucknell hurts the Raiders.
BRACKET
A few notes worth remembering …
- First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
- The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
- Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
- Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
- This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.
Annapolis, Md.
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-AMERICA EAST/UMBC winner
(8) Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Annapolis, Md.
(5) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC 10/Massachusetts
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Princeton vs. COASTAL/Fairfield
(6) Penn State vs. Syracuse
Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) Harvard vs. PATRIOT/Army
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. NORTHEAST/Long Island-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan winner
Last three included: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Syracuse
First three on the outside: Johns Hopkins, Richmond, Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)