It’s a good thing there are another six weekends worth of games before the NCAA men’s lacrosse committee has to sort out its field on many levels. But one that is particularly interesting right now is just what it would do with Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have won nine in a row, pummeling Virginia, slipping past Notre Dame, picking off Denver in the Mile High City and now winning their Big Ten opener at Penn State.
But because the RPI weighs every game in roughly equal fashion (an opponent that winds up playing 15 games will have a slightly larger impact than one that plays 13), some manageable early season games mean just as much as Ohio State’s brand-name triumphs to date. Hence, a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule and an RPI just outside the top 10.
There’s also the matter of the season-opening loss to Utah, which turned out to be a bellwether for neither team. Ohio State hasn’t lost since that Feb. 1 game, while the Utes have dropped seven in a row.
(And in yet the latest illustration of the RPI’s limitations — especially this early in the season — Utah jumped eight spots from 56th a week ago to 48th, with a 14-9 loss at Virginia on Saturday its lone result in that span.)
Ohio State still has at least five more games (and as many as seven) remaining against teams currently in the top 22 of the RPI, so its profile should look a little less enigmatic by the first weekend in May. But for now, slotting the Buckeyes appropriately requires a bit more art and a little less reliance on studying how past committees would have treated them.
It’s what’s to be expected with both a half-completed picture and a limited metric.
The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 24.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (10)
Team | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | LOSSES 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell | 6-1 | 7 | 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 | --- |
| Richmond | 6-3 | 10 | 19 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | --- |
| Ohio State | 9-1 | 11 | 38 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | Utah (48) |
| Army | 7-1 | 12 | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | --- |
| Fairfield | 9-0 | 17 | 59 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | --- |
| Jacksonville | 5-3 | 31 | 41 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | --- |
| Georgetown | 5-3 | 32 | 22 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-3 | --- |
| LIU | 7-1 | 36 | 70 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | at Rutgers (22) |
| UMBC | 4-2 | 38 | 45 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Towson (25) |
| Manhattan | 4-4 | 57 | 57 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | at Vermont (28), Stony Brook (45) |
Cornell is one of three teams (along with Maryland and Princeton) to own a top-five victory, a top-10 RPI and a top-10 strength of schedule. Hard to keep the Big Red out of the top three at this point. … Time for Richmond to root for Georgetown and Virginia to have excellent league results. The Spiders would typically expect to get more value out of victories over those two teams than they would be right now. …
Ohio State’s strength of schedule (a metric that is the average RPI of a team’s top 10 opponents) is about to start getting a lot better now that it can cycle teams out. This week, the Buckeyes will replace Detroit (No. 64) with Rutgers (No. 22) in the calculation. … Not sure Army can afford another regular-season loss and still be in play for an at-large berth. The Black Knights get the Patriot League nod in this exercise by virtue of a slightly better RPI than Boston U. …
Even as the last undefeated team in Division I, Fairfield isn’t close to consideration for a seeded slot. The Stags’ best victory to date is against the No. 26 team in the RPI (Sacred Heart). … It already feels safe to conclude the America East (UMBC), Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville), Metro Atlantic (Manhattan) and Northeast (Long Island) will all be one-bid leagues. …
The same might be true of the Big East, where Georgetown is the highest-ranked team in the RPI entering league play (with Denver and Marquette right behind). The RPI ceiling for those teams is much higher than 30s, but the league owns only one top-20 victory (Denver’s defeat of Duke on Saturday) entering the final weekend of March.
AT LARGE (16 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)
TEAM | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | LOSSES 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton | 5-2 | 1 | 1 | 3-1 | 4-2 | 4-2 | --- |
| Maryland | 7-1 | 2 | 3 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 4-1 | --- |
| North Carolina | 7-1 | 3 | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-1 | --- |
| Penn State | 6-2 | 4 | 12 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | --- |
| Duke | 8-2 | 5 | 14 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | vs. Denver (33) |
| Notre Dame | 4-2 | 6 | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | --- |
| Syracuse | 7-2 | 8 | 17 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-2 | --- |
| Harvard | 5-2 | 9 | 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | Colgate (27) |
| Boston U | 7-1 | 13 | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | --- |
| Michigan | 5-4 | 14 | 10 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 1-4 | --- |
| Johns Hopkins | 6-3 | 15 | 9 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-2 | Rutgers (22) |
| Saint Joseph's | 7-2 | 16 | 28 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Sacred Heart (26) |
| Dartmouth | 7-1 | 18 | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | --- |
| Navy | 6-3 | 19 | 23 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | Lehigh (29) |
| UMass | 7-2 | 20 | 48 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | Brown (30) |
| Rutgers | 5-5 | 22 | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-4 | Stony Brook (45) |
| Virginia | 5-4 | 23 | 16 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-4 | --- |
If the committee was dissecting the relatively scant data, it would probably give at least some thought to putting Princeton at No. 1 overall. Considering the Tigers lost to both Maryland and Cornell, No. 3 is a more appropriate placement for now. … Even with a loss to Michigan, Maryland owns the best overall profile — with its victory over Princeton making a difference. …
With four ACC teams in the top eight right now, the next month will cement at least two (and maybe all four) of North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame and Syracuse as first-round hosts. … A loss to Ohio State didn’t hurt Penn State that much — and however much the Nittany Lions were dinged, a victory at Maryland would more than make up for it. …
Harvard is the last team in the field for now, but it has quite the interesting midweek game against Boston U, which enhanced its profile with a victory over Army. … Maybe the biggest riser of last week was Michigan, which went from a .500 team without much of a resume to the owner of a victory over Maryland. The Wolverines can create some separation from Johns Hopkins by defeating the Blue Jays on Saturday. …
Two things can be true: Saint Joseph’s looks like the sort of team no one would want to deal with in the first round of the NCAA tournament, and the Hawks’ path to the postseason probably hinges on winning the Atlantic 10 tournament. There isn’t going to be much margin for error the rest of the way. … Dartmouth is on the board after opening Ivy play with a victory over Penn. The Big Green’s only game against a current top-20 team was its loss to Massachusetts. …
Can Navy or UMass get their metrics up enough to be viable at-large candidates? It doesn’t seem likely, even if both have some interesting opportunities over the next month. … Rutgers is going to need more than a victory over Hopkins to create some at-large buzzer --- and to outweigh the early loss to Stony Brook. … Whatever Virginia’s issues, it has opportunities. With four ACC games in the next five weekends, the Cavaliers have a better chance than anyone of surging from outside the top 20 to part of the at-large field.
BRACKET
A few notes worth remembering …
- First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
- The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
- Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
- Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
- This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.
Annapolis, Md.
(1) Maryland vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-AMERICA EAST/UMBC winner
(8) Notre Dame vs. Harvard
Annapolis, Md.
(5) Duke vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond
(4) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Princeton vs. COASTAL/Fairfield
(6) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. PATRIOT/Army
Hempstead, N.Y.
(7) Penn State vs. Syracuse
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. NORTHEAST/Long Island-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan winner
Last three included: Notre Dame, Harvard, Syracuse
First three on the outside: Michigan, Johns Hopkins, Boston U
Moving in: Richmond
Moving out: UMass
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)