We have just 34 days until Selection Sunday, and the 29-team field seems destined to feature some fresh names and returns by historically successful programs.
Conference realignment has changed some of the landscape, and the bubble picture is likely the most normal it’s been since 2019. Even with that normalcy, there are plenty of new names to track.
CHANGING OF THE GUARDS
Two leagues have seen their most successful programs depart for greener pastures and remain at the top of their new leagues: James Madison in the AAC and Stony Brook in the CAA.
The Dukes have a sporty resume with key non-conference wins, but possibly more importantly is taking down perennial AAC champion Florida in their first meeting as conference foes.
In the CAA, the Seawolves have effectively replaced JMU as the top team. But the more things change, the more they stay the same. Stony Brook boasts a high RPI (6th), a lofty ranking in the human polls (7th), and a solid strength of schedule (18th). Nevertheless, Stony Brook begins our first round of bracket projections on the seeding bubble due to the teams ahead winning better games. This may portend the annual consternation about where the Seawolves are slotted come May 7.
NEW BUBBLE TEAMS
Strong starts by teams out of the Big East and Patriot League, coupled with a surprising downturn in the Big Ten and Ivy League, have some new teams with compelling resumes. Army, Marquette, Navy and Villanova are all part of the at-large discussion, while the likes of Rutgers, Ohio State and Johns Hopkins aren’t even eligible as of now due to sub.-500 records. Take in the fact that the Ivy League could be a one-bid league, and there are more spots open.
Another new name on the bubble is one that didn’t even have a team 12 months ago: Clemson. The Tigers are in the top 30 of the RPI, according to LacrosseReference.com, primarily relying on a win against Duke. The catch-22 for any bubble team in the ACC is that there are ample opportunities for quality wins, but those are extremely difficult to accomplish.
Additionally, the A-10 has seen its stock steadily rising in recent years. UMass has been a mainstay, Richmond has nabbed a couple of conference titles and Saint Joseph’s injected some new blood into the discussion by winning its first championship last year. UMass is No. 13 in the RPI, while Richmond (No. 25) has entered the at-large discussion. Richmond’s upset of Virginia is that quality win that has eluded this program in the past.
SEEDING PRIORITES TAKE SHAPE
The top two seeds are obvious — Syracuse at No. 1 and Northwestern at No. 2. North Carolina and Maryland have the third and fourth best RPI, respectively, but they’ve also lost to teams below them in the RPI. If Denver can run the table in the Big East, then expect the Pioneers to grab a top four seed. JMU might join that discussion, too, if it does the same in the AAC.
Our seeding bubble includes six teams vying for the final two spots: Notre Dame, Stony Brook, Florida, Boston College, Virginia and Loyola. There are plenty of quality games on everyone’s schedule that can shuffle things around.
Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LaxReference.com, as of Monday, April 3), not human polls. First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For 2023, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)
Syracuse ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
2 |
5-0 |
1-0 |
Northwestern (2) |
— |
Northwestern Big Ten
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2 |
1 |
4-1 |
2-0 |
North Carolina (3) |
— |
Denver Big East
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 |
21 |
2-0 |
1-0 |
Maryland (4) |
— |
James Madison AAC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7 |
8 |
1-1 |
3-0 |
Maryland (4) |
— |
Stony Brook CAA
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 |
18 |
0-2 |
2-0 |
Drexel (16) |
— |
Loyola Patriot League
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8 |
22 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
Penn State (22) |
— |
UMass A-10
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13 |
38 |
0-1 |
1-0 |
UConn (15) |
— |
Yale Ivy
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
23 |
41 |
0-1 |
1-1 |
Princeton (20) |
— |
Albany America East
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
28 |
26 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
Brown (42) |
Cornell (44) |
Liberty ASUN
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
29 |
33 |
0-3 |
0-0 |
Jacksonville (46) |
— |
Mercer Big South
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
30 |
87 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
Virginia Tech (31) |
— |
Stanford Pac-12
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
33 |
32 |
0-2 |
0-1 |
Albany (28) |
Jacksonville (46), Colorado (57) |
Fairfield MAAC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
50 |
61 |
0-0 |
0-2 |
Holy Cross (63) |
— |
Central Michigan MAC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
77 |
72 |
0-1 |
0-2 |
Mount St. Mary's (53) |
Lindenwood (96) |
Wagner NEC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
92 |
91 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
Lafayette (95) |
4 losses of 40+ |
Syracuse is the undisputed No. 1 team in the country and could likely absorb a loss and remain at or near the top … Northwestern is the clear No. 2, with the Wildcats’ only loss coming to Syracuse … Denver remains the elite team in the Big East and is poised for its best year yet.
Stony Brook leads the CAA after its 12-goal thrashing of Drexel … James Madison is on an 11-game winning streak after a season-opening setback to UNC. Included in that stretch are wins over Maryland, Virginia, Florida and UConn … Loyola’s narrow losses to Florida and Syracuse signal that the Greyhounds are really good, but only Penn State appears as a quality win.
UMass’s 10-game winning streak includes 10-goal wins over A-10 foes Richmond and Davidson, as well as a four-goal victory against UConn … Yale seems ready to take that next step, as evidenced by victories over Princeton and Duke … Albany (6-5) is 28th in RPI and has played a difficult schedule but will rely on the automatic berth to make the NCAA tournament.
Liberty (5-5) took out Jacksonville to ascend to first in the ASUN … Mercer (8-2) is taking care of its Big South opponents with ease, having defeated its first two by a combined 35 goals … Stanford (6-5) defeated USC to claim first in a potentially diminished Pac-12. It’s likely only one team comes out of the league.
Fairfield (7-3) is one of three undefeated teams in the MAAC and sports the highest RPI of the group at No. 43. The Stags have lost their three games to UConn, Drexel and Albany by a combined five goals … Central Michigan (3-6) looks to repeat as MAC champs. Before its win over Detroit Mercy this weekend, the Chips had dropped six of seven … Wagner (5-6) is 4-0 in the NEC, which will probably be the lowest-rated conference come Selection Sunday.
AT-LARGE (22 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)
North Carolina ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3 |
3 |
2-2 |
2-0 |
James Madison (7) |
— |
Maryland Big Ten
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4 |
4 |
0-3 |
4-0 |
Florida (11) |
— |
Boston College ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9 |
5 |
0-3 |
1-0 |
UMass (13) |
— |
Notre Dame ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10 |
10 |
1-2 |
0-1 |
North Carolina (3) |
— |
Virginia ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12 |
5 |
1-3 |
1-0 |
Notre Dame (10) |
— |
Army Patriot League
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14 |
64 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
Rutgers (45) |
— |
UConn Big East
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15 |
40 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
Yale (23) |
— |
Drexel CAA
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16 |
26 |
0-2 |
0-0 |
Johns Hopkins (26) |
— |
Marquette Big East
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
17 |
66 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
Louisville (34) |
— |
Michigan Big East
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
18 |
13 |
0-4 |
0-1 |
Cincinnati (39) |
— |
Navy Patriot
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
19 |
41 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
Richmond (25) |
— |
Princeton Ivy
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
20 |
17 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
USC (36) |
— |
Duke ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
21 |
7 |
0-3 |
1-0 |
Navy (19) |
— |
Penn State Big Ten
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22 |
20 |
0-2 |
2-0 |
Drexel (16) |
Vanderbilt (58) |
Villanova Big East
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
24 |
43 |
0-2 |
1-0 |
Navy (19) |
— |
Richmond A-10
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
25 |
49 |
0-0 |
1-2 |
Virginia (12) |
— |
Clemson ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
27 |
30 |
0-3 |
0-1 |
Duke (21) |
— |
Virginia Tech ACC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
31 |
14 |
0-5 |
0-0 |
Duke (21) |
— |
East Carolina AAC
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
32 |
63 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
Campbell (53) |
— |
Davidson A-10
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
35 |
69 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
Mercer (30) |
— |
USC Pac-12
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
36 |
39 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
Villanova (24) |
— |
Towson CAA
RPI |
SOS |
1-10 |
11-20 |
Top Win |
40+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
37 |
54 |
0-1 |
1-0 |
Drexel (16) |
Saint Joseph's (64) |
North Carolina had its 27-game ACC winning streak snapped by Notre Dame. With wins over JMU, BC, Florida and Virginia, the Tar Heels remain a threat to claim a top-four seed … Maryland has a high RPI and SOS (both 4th), but its losses to Denver and JMU will see the Terps seeded slightly lower … Boston College has just one win against the RPI top 20 (UMass) and is one of several teams searching for seeding honors.
Notre Dame’s impressive win over UNC propels it squarely into the seeding mix. Saturday’s game against BC looms large … Another at-large team looking for a seed is Florida, which has wins over Loyola and Michigan … Virginia’s triumph over Notre Dame is its jewel. The Cavaliers have ACC games against Duke, Boston College and Virginia Tech remaining.
Army has victories over Rutgers and Jacksonville, which looked better in February than it does now. How Army fares against Loyola and Navy will determine its fate … UConn is again on the bubble in our first projection, and its win over Yale is what keeps the Huskies in for now … Drexel is the opposite, projected out despite an RPI of 16. The Dragons have yet to defeat a team in the RPI top 25.
Marquette, more than Army, is a nearly unproven outfit. The Golden Eagles have played a weak schedule but beaten everyone they should. Games against Villanova, UConn and Denver will provide a clearer picture … Michigan has played a difficult schedule but has just two wins over the RPI top 40. Currently, the Wolverines are our final team in the field … Navy is among the last four in the field with an RPI of 19 and a quality win over Richmond.
Princeton is just 4-4, and its best win is over USC (RPI 36) while losing games to Yale and Penn State. The Nittany Lions have an additional victory over Drexel to its name to offset a non-conference loss at Vanderbilt … Duke has missed opportunities to improve its profile, and its lone positive is a win over Navy.
Villanova has also beaten Navy but lost to USC. The Wildcats are among our first four out … Richmond is leaning on its win over Virginia to prop up its resume. The Spiders may have to win the A-10 regardless to make the tournament … Clemson has proven it belongs by defeating Duke, but an extremely weak non-conference schedule undoes a lot of the positives … Virginia Tech has shown signs of life since its one-goal showing at Notre Dame on March 16, winning three of four, including a triple-OT thriller at Duke and a narrow two-goal setback to BC.
East Carolina is having its best season in its young history, as the Pirates are creeping towards the top 30 in the RPI. Opportunities remain against UNC, Florida and JMU to make a statement …
Davidson lost by 10 to first-place UMass on Saturday, which leaves its hopes to the A-10 tournament … USC falling to Stanford dropped the Trojans nearly 10 spots in the RPI and out of the field … Towson has a nice win over Drexel, but its loss to Saint Joseph’s hampers its at-large chances.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
-
Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.
Syracuse, N.Y.
Army vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (1) Syracuse (ACC)
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (8) Stony Brook (CAA)
Boston College vs. Yale (IVY)
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Liberty (ASUN) at (4) North Carolina
Virginia vs. Navy
Harrisonburg, Va.
Wagner (NEC) at (5) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Richmond
Evanston, Ill.
Marquette vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (2) Northwestern (BIG TEN)
Notre Dame, Ind.
Central Michigan (MAC) at (7) Notre Dame
Florida vs. Stanford (PAC-12)
Denver, Colo.
UConn vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (3) Denver (BIG EAST)
College Park, Md.
Siena (MAAC) at (6) Maryland
UMass (A-10) vs. Duke
Last Four In: Duke, Navy, Richmond, Michigan
Last Four Out: Drexel, Princeton, Villanova, Clemson
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (4), Big East (3), Patriot League (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2)