A week of high profile, top-ranked matchups coupled with one league’s strong showing in non-conference play has set up an interesting situation on the bubble.
When nearly an entire league has a chance at a NCAA berth
The Ivy League has legitimately seven of its eight members in spots to earn berths to the NCAA tournament this year. Those seven teams all sit at 28th or better in the RPI. This week, we include four teams (Princeton, Penn, Yale and Brown), but another three (Harvard, Dartmouth and Cornell) sit among the first six out.
Teams looking to end tourney droughts
With it seemingly more likely that the CAA, Big East and Atlantic 10 could be one-bid leagues, and that their standard bearers more apt to miss in an at-large situation than not, it creates an enlarged bubble.
And with that brings some new blood. Clemson and Brown are searching for their first-ever appearances in the NCAA tournament, while Harvard seeks its first berth since 1994. Two other teams on the outside looking in, Ohio State (2015) and Cornell (2019), are also looking to end tourney droughts.
Florida joins the seeded ranks
Florida’s win over Clemson makes it four in a row, while James Madison fell to Virginia. Despite JMU’s win over the Gators, there was an even exchange between those teams among the seeded and unseeded. The Gators are now projected as the No. 7 seed, while James Madison is the second team left out of the seeded group. Virginia is on the doorstep, just behind No. 8 Maryland, but there is a case to flip the two.
ACC dominates the seeds
The top three remain the same, with Boston College and North Carolina at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. Syracuse and Stanford occupy the Nos. 5 and 6 spots, respectively, while Virginia lurks just behind Maryland.
Air miles check-in
While last week we projected just two flights needed to fill out the field, this week has five. Stanford and Florida are the geographical outliers set to host. USC can bus to Stanford, but all other opponents in the two pods will have to fly.
Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, March 23), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)
Team | RPI | SOS | T1-10 | T11-20 | TOP WIN | LOSSES 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 1 | 4 | 5-0 | 5-0 | Stanford (3) | --- |
| Johns Hopkins | 4 | 2 | 3-2 | 4-0 | Syracuse (7) | --- |
| Florida | 6 | 10 | 2-2 | 2-0 | Johns Hopkins (4) | --- |
| Princeton | 8 | 15 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Loyola (13) | --- |
| James Madison | 10 | 11 | 1-3 | 2-0 | Florida (6) | --- |
| Loyola | 13 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-0 | Johns Hopkins (4) | --- |
| Stony Brook | 21 | 17 | 0-1 | 2-2 | Denver (32) | --- |
| UMass | 24 | 51 | 0-2 | 1-1 | Holy Cross (39) | --- |
| Denver | 32 | 28 | 1-2 | 1-2 | Michigan (18) | --- |
| Liberty | 35 | 48 | 0-2 | 0-1 | High Point (46) | --- |
| High Point | 46 | 43 | 0-0 | 1-3 | Virginia Tech (24) | William & Mary (71) |
| UMBC | 47 | 98 | 0-0 | 0-0 | Bryant (47) | --- |
| Mount St. Mary's | 61 | 66 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Towson (43) | 3 losses vs. 40+ |
| Detroit Mercy | 69 | 78 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Kent State (86) | 4 losses vs. 40+ |
| LIU | 101 | 110 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Iona (112) | 5 losses vs. 40+ |
Boston College tackled the tough cross-country test to Stanford and moved up to the No. 1 RPI team … Johns Hopkins has the superior RPI to Northwestern to earn the Big Ten’s auto bid for now. The Blue Jays have a big test at JMU tomorrow … Florida is racking up the air miles this week — a mid-week jaunt north to Philadelphia to play Penn and then off to UC Davis for its inaugural Big 12 game just 56 hours later.
Princeton keeps cruising, but its next two games against Yale and Stony Brook will say a lot about where this team is in the national picture … James Madison hosts Johns Hopkins in what could be its last best chance to impress the selection committee — the rest of the games it’ll be favored to win by a lot … Loyola is once again 13th in the RPI ahead of its rivalry matchup vs. Navy on Thursday.
Stony Brook bounced back from its loss at Colorado to tamp down Delaware on the road. The Seawolves have lost three games by just a goal apiece … UMass hasn’t had any issues in A-10 play thus far winning its four games by an average of 9.25 goals … Denver slipped mightily in the RPI down to 32nd. The Pioneers are looking more likely to rely on that auto bid than in years past.
Liberty remains the ASUN’s representative with an RPI of 35. Road games at Queens and Louisville await the Flames … High Point is the Big South team this week, jumping 22 spots after beating Virginia Tech this weekend … UMBC is 2-0 in America East play with the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the nation (16.10 gpg).
Mount St. Mary’s remains the MAAC representative at RPI No. 61 … Detroit Mercy seeks its first NCAA tournament bid from a wide open Mid-American Conference … LIU leads the lowly-rated NEC at No. 101.
AT LARGE (27 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)
Team | RPI | SOS | T1-10 | T11-20 | TOP WIN | LOSSES 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 2 | 6 | 4-0 | 4-0 | Virginia (5) | --- |
| Stanford | 3 | 3 | 3-2 | 5-0 | Virginia (5) | --- |
| Virginia | 5 | 7 | 2-2 | 3-1 | Princeton (8) | --- |
| Syracuse | 7 | 1 | 3-3 | 3-1 | Stanford (3) | --- |
| Northwestern | 9 | 25 | 2-1 | 2-0 | Syracuse (7) | --- |
| Maryland | 11 | 8 | 2-2 | 2-0 | James Madison (10) | --- |
| Penn | 12 | 9 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Loyola (13) | --- |
| Harvard | 14 | 13 | 1-1 | 3-2 | Dartmouth (20) | Drexel (40) |
| Yale | 15 | 42 | 1-2 | 2-0 | Michigan (18) | --- |
| Ohio State | 16 | 52 | 0-1 | 2-0 | Denver (32) | --- |
| USC | 17 | 21 | 1-3 | 2-0 | Ohio State (16) | --- |
| Michigan | 18 | 18 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Penn (12) | --- |
| Brown | 19 | 49 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Yale (15) | --- |
| Dartmouth | 20 | 20 | 0-3 | 3-0 | UMass (24) | --- |
| Duke | 22 | 31 | 0-3 | 2-0 | Clemson (26) | --- |
| Navy | 23 | 26 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Virginia (5) | Jacksonville (54) |
| Virginia Tech | 25 | 12 | 0-4 | 2-0 | Louisville (34) | High Point (46) |
| Clemson | 26 | 19 | 2-1 | 2-1 | Syracuse (7) | Mercer (55) |
| Cornell | 28 | 44 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Brown (19) | --- |
| Arizona State | 29 | 35 | 0-2 | 1-1 | Pitt (36) | --- |
| Rutgers | 30 | 32 | 0-3 | 1-0 | Stony Brook (21) | Army (42) |
| Notre Dame | 31 | 23 | 1-3 | 0-2 | Harvard (14) | --- |
| Villanova | 33 | 45 | 0-1 | 1-2 | UConn (37) | --- |
| Pitt | 36 | 22 | 0-3 | 1-2 | Liberty (35) | --- |
| UConn | 37 | 33 | 0-3 | 2-1 | UMass (24) | --- |
| Georgetown | 38 | 30 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Delaware (41) | Towson (43) |
| Drexel | 40 | 50 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Harvard (14) | --- |
North Carolina will make its run to be the No. 1 in the country during the next two weeks with games at Northwestern, Notre Dame and at home to Boston College … Stanford ran up against a great BC team this weekend. The next two weeks feature three games in the Eastern Time Zone vs. Army, Louisville and Notre Dame … Virginia is all the way up to No. 5 in the RPI ahead of its big road game at Syracuse, which is 7th in the RPI.
Northwestern crushed Maryland. The Wildcats prepare for a massive game against UNC, while the Terps host Oregon and travel to Penn. The Quakers host Florida and travel to Columbia before that game.
Harvard’s RPI is 14th, and the Crimson have a great opportunity at Brown this week to jump into the field … Yale is on an unexpected two-game skid heading into a tough stretch against Princeton and Syracuse … Ohio State fell from the unbeaten ranks by a goal to USC. The Buckeyes do not have a significant win on their resume; thus they are the first team out this week.
USC picked up its first Big Ten win at OSU, which was much needed before home games against Northwestern and Maryland … Can Michigan break its recent cycle of alternating victories against losses when it travels to Ohio State on Thursday night?
Brown’s surprise win over Yale catapulted the Bears into the top 20 of the RPI and into this week’s field … Dartmouth had a wonderful time in Texas by sweeping Big 12 squads Arizona State and Colorado … Duke’s RPI of 22 belies its lack of quality wins — just one in the top 30 (Clemson).
Navy continues to ride the wave of its win over Virginia earlier this season. A victory over Loyola would give it pole position in the Patriot … Virginia Tech all but dropped its at-large chances with a loss to High Point barring some shock victories in ACC play … Clemson is among the final four teams in this week’s field on the strength of its early season win over Syracuse.
Cornell is hanging around the at-large picture at No. 28 in the RPI, and that win over Brown looks really good … Arizona State is tumbling down the standings and likely needs some magic in Big 12 play … Rutgers is down to 30th in the RPI and also needs some magic in conference action.
Notre Dame shot up to 31st in the RPI and has its win over Harvard to hang its hat on, but the Irish need more to get into at-large consideration … Villanova topped UConn to put itself in line to challenge Denver for the Big East, while Georgetown looks to play spoiler in the league … Drexel has also defeated Harvard, and likely needs to run the table in the CAA regular-season to get an at-large look.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
- The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
- Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
- It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
- Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.
Newton, Mass.
Brown vs. Stony Brook (CAA)
Winner plays at (1) Boston College
College Park, Md.
UMBC (America East) at (8) Maryland
Virginia vs. UMass (A-10)
Baltimore, Md.
LIU (NEC) at (4) Johns Hopkins (BIG TEN)
Penn vs. Duke
Syracuse, N.Y.
Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC) at (5) Syracuse
Princeton (IVY) vs. Navy
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Clemson
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina (ACC)
Gainesville, Fla.
Liberty (ASUN) at (7) Florida (BIG 12)
James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Yale
Evanston, Ill.
Michigan vs. Detroit Mercy (MAC)
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern
Stanford, Calif.
High Point (BIG SOUTH) at (6) Stanford
USC vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Last Four In: Duke, Clemson, Navy, Brown
First Six Out: Ohio State, Harvard, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Dartmouth, Cornell
Moving In: Brown, Detroit Mercy, High Point, Navy
Moving Out: Akron, Furman, Ohio State, Rutgers
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (5), Ivy League (4), Patriot League (2)